Week 11 College Football Projections From Every Game

Week 11 NCAA Projections

Scores and standings for every team

By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com

We will preview a college football week each day for 15 days, including scores and updated standings for each week. At the conclusion of those previews, we will present our bowl match-ups with results and final updated pre-season Power Rankings (see original rankings below).

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of Aug. 1, 2008. A schedule of upcoming college football preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program for FREE.

Each regular season FBS game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our Expected and Absolute Records as of the conclusion of that week.

The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1 percent win is different than a 99 percent win).

Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we only expect one team to do so (stick around to August 26th to find out who).

Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that first considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2007 and then makes modifications for 2008 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by winning percentage of the home team descending, with the score reading the visitors first and then the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95 percent chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 1,000 simulations.

Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. LSU vs. Appalachian State), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 11.

Game of the Week: TCU 21 (8-3) @ Utah 18 (8-2)
This is a great game, and it does mean something. Utah is going to be very good this season. We have the Utes in a very close game against Michigan at the Big House in Week 1 and then favored in every game after that.

The Utes could very well be 9-0 going into this Thursday night home game with the whole country watching. It looks like they will have an extra loss after the game. TCU's defense is too much for Brian Johnson and Utah to handle, as the Horned Frogs win a tight one 65.6 percent of the time and by an average score of 21-18.

Week 11 Scores for Every FBS Game

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
San Diego State @ Brigham Young	95	9-34
Tennessee-Martin @ Auburn	95	3-39
Virginia @ WF	95	9-29
Baylor @ Texas	95	17-36
Tulane @ Houston	95	15-33
California @ USC	95	14-33
Utah State @ Boise State	95	8-33
Cincinnati @ W. Virginia	95	20-32
Stanford @ Oregon	95	10-34
Iowa State @ Colorado	93.4	10-33
Army @ Rice	93.4	8-33
Marshall @ East Carolina	93.4	16-35
North Texas @ Florida Atlantic	91.8	14-38
Syracuse @ Rutgers	86.9	17-37
Kansas State @ Missouri	86.9	28-35
S. Miss @ UCF	86.9	17-31
Wyoming @ Tennessee	85.2	15-32
Alabama @ LSU	83.6	14-30
Northern Illinois @ Ball State	80.3	25-37
Colorado St. @ Air Force	80.3	19-33
NC St. @ Duke	78.7	14-28
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech	73.8	31-32
GA Tech @ North Carolina	72.1	20-31
Oregon State @ UCLA	72.1	12-27
Memphis @ SMU	63.9	23-32
Maryland @ Virginia Tech	62.3	20-30
Nevada @ Fresno State	62.3	35-37
Louisville @ Pittsburgh	55.7	29-36
Arkansas @ S. Carolina	54.1	22-27
Bowling Green @ Ohio	52.5	22-28
Western Kentucky @ Troy	47.5	19-19
Louisiana Tech @ San Jose State	41	18-15
Penn State @ Iowa	36.1	22-20
Miami (OH) @ Buffalo	36.1	25-21
Toledo @ Akron	36.1	25-20
Purdue @ Michigan State	34.4	28-26
TCU @ Utah	34.4	21-18
UTEP @ LA-Laf	34.4	29-27
Notre Dame @ Boston College	31.1	22-19
Hawaii @ New Mexico State	29.5	26-21
Michigan @ Minn.	27.9	38-27
LA-Monroe @ Mid Tenn	27.9	27-22
Arizona @ Washington St.	23	30-21
Kansas @ Nebraska	21.3	37-26
Arizona St. @ Washington	19.7	36-27
Wisconsin @ Indiana	18	31-20
New Mexico @ UNLV	11.5	30-17
Arkansas St. @ Fla. Int.	9.8	27-15
Clemson @ Florida State	6.6	27-15
Illinois @ W. Michigan	5	34-15
Ohio State @ Northwestern	5	40-7
Oklahoma @ Texas A&M	5	37-23
Florida @ Vanderbilt	5	39-11
Georgia @ Kentucky	5	39-9

Updated FBS Standings through Week 11

Conference	Team	Abs Record	Exp Record
Atlantic Coast	Clemson	9 - 0	8 - 1
Atlantic Coast	WF	8 - 1	8 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Virginia Tech	9 - 0	7 - 2
Atlantic Coast	Florida State	6 - 3	6 - 3
Atlantic Coast	Maryland	5 - 4	6 - 3
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina	8 - 1	6 - 3
Atlantic Coast	GA Tech	5 - 5	5 - 5
Atlantic Coast	Boston College	4 - 5	4 - 5
Atlantic Coast	Duke	3 - 6	4 - 5
Atlantic Coast	Miami (FL)	4 - 5	4 - 5
Atlantic Coast	Virginia	2 - 8	3 - 7
Atlantic Coast	NC St.	1 - 8	2 - 7
Big East	W. Virginia	9 - 0	8 - 1
Big East	South Florida	8 - 1	7 - 2
Big East	Cincinnati	6 - 3	6 - 3
Big East	Louisville	6 - 3	6 - 3
Big East	Pittsburgh	8 - 1	6 - 3
Big East	Connecticut	6 - 3	5 - 4
Big East	Rutgers	3 - 6	5 - 4
Big East	Syracuse	2 - 7	2 - 7
Big Ten	Ohio State	10 - 0	10 - 0
Big Ten	Illinois	8 - 2	8 - 2
Big Ten	Indiana	8 - 2	7 - 3
Big Ten	Wisconsin	9 - 1	7 - 3
Big Ten	Michigan	7 - 3	6 - 4
Big Ten	Penn State	5 - 5	6 - 4
Big Ten	Purdue	9 - 1	6 - 4
Big Ten	Iowa	4 - 6	5 - 5
Big Ten	Michigan State	4 - 7	5 - 6
Big Ten	Minn.	3 - 7	4 - 6
Big Ten	Northwestern	5 - 5	4 - 6
Big Twelve	Oklahoma	10 - 0	9 - 1
Big Twelve	Kansas	9 - 1	8 - 2
Big Twelve	Missouri	10 - 0	8 - 2
Big Twelve	Texas Tech	8 - 2	8 - 2
Big Twelve	Oklahoma State	7 - 3	7 - 3
Big Twelve	Texas	8 - 2	7 - 3
Big Twelve	Kansas State	5 - 5	6 - 4
Big Twelve	Nebraska	5 - 5	5 - 5
Big Twelve	Colorado	4 - 6	4 - 6
Big Twelve	Texas A&M	3 - 7	4 - 6
Big Twelve	Baylor	2 - 8	3 - 7
Big Twelve	Iowa State	1 - 9	2 - 8
Conference USA	Houston	8 - 1	7 - 2
Conference USA	East Carolina	6 - 3	6 - 3
Conference USA	Tulsa	6 - 3	6 - 3
Conference USA	UCF	7 - 2	6 - 3
Conference USA	Rice	7 - 3	6 - 4
Conference USA	S. Miss	6 - 4	5 - 5
Conference USA	Memphis	2 - 8	4 - 6
Conference USA	SMU	4 - 6	4 - 6
Conference USA	Marshall	3 - 6	3 - 6
Conference USA	UTEP	3 - 6	3 - 6
Conference USA	Tulane	1 - 8	2 - 7
Conference USA	UAB	1 - 8	2 - 7
Independents (FBS)	Notre Dame	5 - 4	5 - 4
Independents (FBS)	Navy	4 - 5	4 - 5
Independents (FBS)	Western Kentucky	3 - 7	3 - 7
Independents (FBS)	Army	1 - 9	2 - 8
Mid-American	Ball State	8 - 1	7 - 2
Mid-American	Miami (OH)	7 - 2	6 - 3
Mid-American	W. Michigan	7 - 3	6 - 4
Mid-American	C. Michigan	6 - 3	5 - 4
Mid-American	Bowling Green	4 - 6	5 - 5
Mid-American	Ohio	4 - 6	5 - 5
Mid-American	Kent St.	4 - 5	4 - 5
Mid-American	Temple	3 - 6	4 - 5
Mid-American	Akron	2 - 7	3 - 6
Mid-American	Buffalo	2 - 7	3 - 6
Mid-American	Northern Illinois	3 - 6	3 - 6
Mid-American	Toledo	3 - 6	3 - 6
Mid-American	E. Michigan	2 - 8	3 - 7
Mountain West	Brigham Young	10 - 0	9 - 1
Mountain West	Utah	8 - 2	8 - 2
Mountain West	TCU	9 - 2	8 - 3
Mountain West	Air Force	7 - 3	7 - 3
Mountain West	New Mexico	7 - 4	6 - 5
Mountain West	Wyoming	4 - 6	5 - 5
Mountain West	Colorado St.	3 - 7	3 - 7
Mountain West	UNLV	2 - 8	3 - 7
Mountain West	San Diego State	1 - 9	2 - 8
Pacific-10	USC	8 - 1	8 - 1
Pacific-10	Arizona St.	7 - 2	6 - 3
Pacific-10	Arizona	6 - 3	5 - 3
Pacific-10	Oregon	6 - 4	6 - 4
Pacific-10	California	7 - 2	5 - 4
Pacific-10	UCLA	4 - 5	5 - 4
Pacific-10	Oregon State	3 - 6	3 - 6
Pacific-10	Washington St.	3 - 7	3 - 6
Pacific-10	Washington	2 - 7	3 - 6
Pacific-10	Stanford	1 - 9	2 - 8
Southeastern	Georgia	10 - 0	9 - 1
Southeastern	LSU	9 - 1	9 - 1
Southeastern	Florida	7 - 2	7 - 2
Southeastern	Alabama	7 - 3	7 - 3
Southeastern	Auburn	8 - 2	7 - 3
Southeastern	S. Carolina	6 - 4	6 - 4
Southeastern	Tennessee	6 - 4	6 - 4
Southeastern	Mississippi State	4 - 5	5 - 4
Southeastern	Kentucky	6 - 4	5 - 5
Southeastern	Mississippi	3 - 6	4 - 5
Southeastern	Arkansas	4 - 6	4 - 6
Southeastern	Vanderbilt	0 - 9	1 - 8
Sun Belt	Florida Atlantic	7 - 2	7 - 2
Sun Belt	LA-Monroe	7 - 3	6 - 4
Sun Belt	Arkansas St.	5 - 4	5 - 4
Sun Belt	Troy	3 - 7	4 - 6
Sun Belt	LA-Laf	2 - 7	3 - 6
Sun Belt	Mid Tenn	2 - 7	3 - 6
Sun Belt	North Texas	2 - 8	3 - 7
Sun Belt	Fla. Int.	0 - 9	1 - 8
Western Athletic	Boise State	8 - 1	8 - 1
Western Athletic	Fresno State	8 - 1	7 - 2
Western Athletic	Nevada	6 - 3	6 - 3
Western Athletic	Hawaii	5 - 5	6 - 4
Western Athletic	Idaho	5 - 5	5 - 5
Western Athletic	New Mexico State	3 - 6	4 - 5
Western Athletic	San Jose State	3 - 7	4 - 6
Western Athletic	Louisiana Tech	3 - 6	3 - 6
Western Athletic	Utah State	0 - 10	1 - 9

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