Week 8 College Football Projections: Scores From Every Game

Week 8 NCAA Projections

Scores and standings for every team

By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com

Aug. 18, 2008

We will preview a college football week each day for 15 days, including scores and updated standings for each week. At the conclusion of those previews, we will present our bowl match-ups with results and final updated pre-season Power Rankings (see original rankings below).

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of Aug. 1, 2008. A schedule of upcoming college football preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program for FREE.

Each regular season FBS game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our Expected and Absolute Records as of the conclusion of that week. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored.

The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we only expect one team to do so (stick around to August 26th to find out who).

Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that first considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2007 and then makes modifications for 2008 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by winning percentage of the home team descending, with the score reading the visitors first and then the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95 percent chance of winning, that means that it won at 95 percent or more of the 1,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win.

Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. LSU vs. Appalachian State), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Game of the Week: No. 14 Wake Forest 26 (5-1) @ Maryland 23 (5-2)
Wake Forest is a bit of a surprise team that the computer loves, with Riley Skinner and Josh Adams on offense and a defense that is at least as talented top to bottom.

The Demon Deacons get a big test in this game on the road against a 5-1 Maryland squad that has watched its offense really come into its own over the first six weeks of the season.

Wake's defense is the difference, as the team wins 65.6 percent of the time and by just three points, 26-23.

Today we preview Week 8.

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
San Diego State @ New Mexico	95	8-33
Vanderbilt @ Georgia	95	6-41
Syracuse @ South Florida	95	16-33
Stanford @ UCLA	95	10-36
Utah State @ Nevada	95	18-38
GA Tech @ Clemson	95	13-36
Colorado St. @ Utah	95	13-34
Mid Tenn @ Louisville	88.5	22-34
Baylor @ Oklahoma State	86.9	26-35
Kansas @ Oklahoma	86.9	32-37
Army @ Buffalo	86.9	10-31
Memphis @ East Carolina	85.2	16-34
Mississippi @ Alabama	83.6	14-34
Fla. Int. @ Troy	83.6	10-26
San Jose State @ New Mexico State	83.6	15-26
UTEP @ Tulsa	82	23-39
Hawaii @ Boise State	75.4	16-28
Mississippi State @ Tennessee	73.8	16-31
Indiana @ Illinois	70.5	21-34
W. Michigan @ C. Michigan	70.5	21-34
North Texas @ LA-Monroe	70.5	17-33
Toledo @ Northern Illinois	63.9	23-31
Oregon State @ Washington	60.7	21-29
Arkansas @ Kentucky	57.4	16-23
S. Miss @ Rice	52.5	24-30
California @ Arizona	49.2	30-31
Connecticut @ Rutgers	47.5	27-27
Missouri @ Texas	47.5	40-37
Michigan @ Penn State	44.3	24-24
Akron @ E. Michigan	44.3	21-20
Arkansas St. @ LA-Laf	44.3	29-25
Brigham Young @ TCU	41	24-24
Miami (FL) @ Duke	39.3	19-18
Idaho @ Louisiana Tech	36.1	24-21
WF @ Maryland	34.4	26-23
Kansas State @ Colorado	31.1	33-29
Marshall @ UAB	29.5	28-23
Miami (OH) @ Bowling Green	29.5	23-20
Pittsburgh @ Navy	27.9	29-23
North Carolina @ Virginia	26.2	23-17
Houston @ SMU	24.6	35-28
Purdue @ Northwestern	21.3	32-22
Texas Tech @ Texas A&M	18	34-26
Virginia Tech @ Boston College	13.1	23-14
Air Force @ UNLV	11.5	36-24
Wisconsin @ Iowa	6.6	33-13
Florida State @ NC St.	5	31-11
Nebraska @ Iowa State	5	31-12
Florida Atlantic @ Western Kentucky	5	35-15
LSU @ S. Carolina	5	39-13
USC @ Washington St.	5	33-9
Ohio State @ Michigan State	5	35-9

Updated FBS Standings through Week 8

Conference	Team	Abs Record	Exp Record
Atlantic Coast	Clemson	7 - 0	6 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Virginia Tech	7 - 0	6 - 1
Atlantic Coast	WF	5 - 1	5 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Maryland	4 - 3	5 - 2
Atlantic Coast	Boston College	4 - 2	4 - 2
Atlantic Coast	Florida State	5 - 1	4 - 2
Atlantic Coast	GA Tech	4 - 3	4 - 3
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina	6 - 1	4 - 3
Atlantic Coast	Duke	1 - 5	3 - 3
Atlantic Coast	Miami (FL)	3 - 4	3 - 4
Atlantic Coast	Virginia	2 - 5	2 - 5
Atlantic Coast	NC St.	1 - 6	1 - 6
Big East	W. Virginia	6 - 0	6 - 0
Big East	South Florida	6 - 1	6 - 1
Big East	Cincinnati	5 - 1	5 - 1
Big East	Connecticut	6 - 1	5 - 2
Big East	Louisville	5 - 1	4 - 2
Big East	Pittsburgh	5 - 1	4 - 2
Big East	Rutgers	2 - 5	4 - 3
Big East	Syracuse	2 - 5	2 - 5
Big Ten	Ohio State	8 - 0	8 - 0
Big Ten	Illinois	6 - 1	5 - 2
Big Ten	Indiana	6 - 1	5 - 2
Big Ten	Wisconsin	6 - 1	5 - 2
Big Ten	Iowa	4 - 4	5 - 3
Big Ten	Penn State	4 - 4	5 - 3
Big Ten	Michigan	5 - 2	4 - 3
Big Ten	Northwestern	4 - 3	4 - 3
Big Ten	Purdue	6 - 1	4 - 3
Big Ten	Michigan State	4 - 4	4 - 4
Big Ten	Minn.	3 - 4	3 - 4
Big Twelve	Oklahoma	7 - 0	7 - 0
Big Twelve	Kansas	6 - 1	6 - 1
Big Twelve	Missouri	7 - 0	6 - 1
Big Twelve	Texas Tech	7 - 0	6 - 1
Big Twelve	Kansas State	5 - 2	5 - 2
Big Twelve	Oklahoma State	6 - 1	5 - 2
Big Twelve	Texas	5 - 2	5 - 2
Big Twelve	Nebraska	4 - 3	4 - 3
Big Twelve	Colorado	2 - 5	3 - 4
Big Twelve	Texas A&M	2 - 5	3 - 4
Big Twelve	Baylor	2 - 5	2 - 5
Big Twelve	Iowa State	1 - 6	2 - 5
Conference USA	Tulsa	6 - 1	6 - 1
Conference USA	Houston	6 - 1	5 - 2
Conference USA	UCF	5 - 1	4 - 2
Conference USA	East Carolina	4 - 3	4 - 3
Conference USA	Marshall	3 - 4	3 - 4
Conference USA	Rice	4 - 3	3 - 4
Conference USA	S. Miss	4 - 3	3 - 4
Conference USA	Memphis	2 - 6	3 - 5
Conference USA	SMU	3 - 5	3 - 5
Conference USA	Tulane	1 - 5	2 - 4
Conference USA	UTEP	2 - 5	2 - 5
Conference USA	UAB	1 - 7	2 - 6
Independents (FBS)	Notre Dame	3 - 3	4 - 2
Independents (FBS)	Navy	2 - 5	3 - 4
Independents (FBS)	Army	1 - 6	2 - 5
Independents (FBS)	Western Kentucky	2 - 6	2 - 6
Mid-American	Ball State	6 - 1	5 - 2
Mid-American	W. Michigan	6 - 2	5 - 3
Mid-American	C. Michigan	5 - 2	4 - 3
Mid-American	Kent St.	4 - 3	4 - 3
Mid-American	Miami (OH)	5 - 2	4 - 3
Mid-American	Bowling Green	2 - 5	3 - 4
Mid-American	Buffalo	2 - 5	3 - 4
Mid-American	Northern Illinois	3 - 4	3 - 4
Mid-American	Ohio	2 - 5	3 - 4
Mid-American	Temple	2 - 5	3 - 4
Mid-American	E. Michigan	2 - 6	3 - 5
Mid-American	Toledo	2 - 5	2 - 5
Mid-American	Akron	2 - 6	2 - 6
Mountain West	Utah	7 - 1	7 - 1
Mountain West	Brigham Young	7 - 0	6 - 1
Mountain West	TCU	6 - 2	6 - 2
Mountain West	Air Force	5 - 2	4 - 3
Mountain West	Wyoming	3 - 4	4 - 3
Mountain West	New Mexico	5 - 3	4 - 4
Mountain West	Colorado St.	2 - 5	2 - 5
Mountain West	San Diego State	1 - 6	2 - 5
Mountain West	UNLV	2 - 5	2 - 5
Pacific-10	USC	5 - 1	5 - 1
Pacific-10	Arizona	5 - 2	5 - 2
Pacific-10	Arizona St.	4 - 2	4 - 2
Pacific-10	California	5 - 1	4 - 2
Pacific-10	Oregon	5 - 2	4 - 3
Pacific-10	UCLA	3 - 4	4 - 3
Pacific-10	Oregon State	3 - 4	3 - 4
Pacific-10	Washington St.	2 - 6	3 - 5
Pacific-10	Washington	2 - 4	2 - 4
Pacific-10	Stanford	1 - 7	1 - 7
Southeastern	Georgia	7 - 0	7 - 0
Southeastern	LSU	7 - 0	7 - 0
Southeastern	Florida	5 - 1	5 - 1
Southeastern	Alabama	5 - 2	5 - 2
Southeastern	Auburn	6 - 1	5 - 2
Southeastern	Kentucky	5 - 2	5 - 2
Southeastern	S. Carolina	5 - 3	5 - 3
Southeastern	Mississippi State	3 - 4	4 - 3
Southeastern	Mississippi	3 - 4	4 - 3
Southeastern	Tennessee	4 - 3	4 - 3
Southeastern	Arkansas	2 - 5	3 - 4
Southeastern	Vanderbilt	0 - 7	1 - 6
Sun Belt	Florida Atlantic	5 - 2	5 - 2
Sun Belt	Arkansas St.	4 - 3	4 - 3
Sun Belt	LA-Monroe	5 - 2	4 - 3
Sun Belt	LA-Laf	1 - 6	2 - 5
Sun Belt	Mid Tenn	2 - 5	2 - 5
Sun Belt	North Texas	1 - 6	2 - 5
Sun Belt	Troy	2 - 5	2 - 5
Sun Belt	Fla. Int.	0 - 7	1 - 6
Western Athletic	Boise State	5 - 1	5 - 1
Western Athletic	Nevada	5 - 2	5 - 2
Western Athletic	Fresno State	5 - 1	4 - 2
Western Athletic	Hawaii	3 - 4	4 - 3
Western Athletic	Idaho	4 - 4	4 - 4
Western Athletic	New Mexico State	2 - 4	3 - 3
Western Athletic	San Jose State	3 - 4	3 - 4
Western Athletic	Louisiana Tech	1 - 5	2 - 4
Western Athletic	Utah State	0 - 7	1 - 6

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