Week 4 College Football Projections: Scores From Every Game

Week 4 NCAA Projections

Scores and standings for every team

By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com

August 14th, 2008

We will preview a college football week each day for 15 days, including scores and updated standings for each week. At the conclusion of those previews, we will present our bowl match-ups with results and final updated pre-season Power Rankings (see original rankings below).

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2008. A schedule of upcoming college football preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

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Each regular season FBS game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our Expected and Absolute Records as of the conclusion of that week.

The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game.

The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1 percent win is different than a 99 percent win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account.

We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we only expect one team to do so (stick around to Aug. 26 to find out who).

Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog.

This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that first considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2007 and then makes modifications for 2008 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by winning percentage of the home team descending, with the score reading the visitors first and then the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95 percent chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 1,000 simulations.

Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. LSU vs. Appalachian State), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Game of the Week

No. 4 LSU 26 (4-0) @ No. 18 Auburn 11 (3-1)
A traditionally hard-fought, low-scoring game, this contest between two top 20 teams in our pre-season Power Rankings does not disappoint, in the latter respect, at least. LSU may have lost several key contributors from last year's national championship team, such as quarterback Matt Flynn and defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey, but these Tigers (as opposed to the other Tigers on the field) are still one of the country's top five most talented teams entering the season.

LSU wins 93.4 percent of the time and by an average score of 26-11 to remind the SEC West who is king of the division.

Week 4 Scores for Every FBS Game

Today we preview Week 4.

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
South Carolina State @ Clemson	95	3-46
Northeastern @ Syracuse	95	6-36
Troy @ Ohio State	95	4-49
Massachusetts @ Texas Tech	95	4-46
Sam Houston State @ Kansas	95	4-53
Alabama State @ UAB	95	5-28
Nicholls State @ Memphis	95	6-37
Murray State @ Western Kentucky	95	6-33
Indiana State @ Northern Illinois	95	5-36
Tennessee Tech @ W. Michigan	95	5-39
Wofford @ S. Carolina	95	5-38
E. Michigan @ Maryland	95	14-37
Buffalo @ Missouri	95	17-38
Portland State @ Washington St.	95	6-33
Southeastern Louisiana @ Louisiana Tech	95	6-33
Miami (OH) @ Cincinnati	95	12-30
Rice @ Texas	95	18-36
Vanderbilt @ Mississippi	90.2	14-33
Wyoming @ Brigham Young	88.5	13-31
Baylor @ Connecticut	85.2	17-33
Ball State @ Indiana	78.7	25-38
Temple @ Penn State	77	15-31
Iowa @ Pittsburgh	70.5	15-24
Marshall @ S. Miss	70.5	19-33
Iowa State @ UNLV	70.5	17-27
San Jose State @ Stanford	70.5	13-23
Mid Tenn @ Arkansas St.	63.9	17-25
C. Michigan @ Purdue	59	27-34
Boise State @ Oregon	59	18-27
Arizona @ UCLA	54.1	21-29
Mississippi State @ GA Tech	52.5	17-22
Kansas State @ Louisville	50.8	34-33
Ohio @ Northwestern	50.8	22-30
New Mexico State @ UTEP	50.8	22-28
Notre Dame @ Michigan State	47.5	23-24
New Mexico @ Tulsa	44.3	27-26
Miami (FL) @ Texas A&M	42.6	27-26
Florida Atlantic @ Minn.	39.3	35-33
Kent St. @ LA-Laf	39.3	27-26
UCF @ Boston College	36.1	20-18
Houston @ Colorado St.	26.2	33-22
Idaho @ Utah State	26.2	29-18
Akron @ Army	24.6	19-15
Rutgers @ Navy	24.6	32-29
Florida @ Tennessee	24.6	38-28
Utah @ Air Force	23	30-21
TCU @ SMU	21.3	35-19
Virginia Tech @ North Carolina	18	26-20
WF @ Florida State	16.4	24-17
LA-Monroe @ Tulane	14.8	31-22
Alabama @ Arkansas	13.1	31-19
Fresno State @ Toledo	8.2	33-23
LSU @ Auburn	6.6	26-11
W. Virginia @ Colorado	5	38-20
East Carolina @ NC St.	5	30-16
Georgia @ Arizona St.	5	37-17
South Florida @ Fla. Int.	5	38-8

Updated FBS Standings through Week 4

Conference	Team	Abs Record	Exp Record
Atlantic Coast	Clemson	4 - 0	4 - 0
Atlantic Coast	WF	3 - 0	3 - 0
Atlantic Coast	Maryland	3 - 1	3 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Virginia Tech	4 - 0	3 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Boston College	2 - 1	2 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Duke	1 - 2	2 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Florida State	2 - 1	2 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Miami (FL)	2 - 1	2 - 1
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina	2 - 1	2 - 1
Atlantic Coast	GA Tech	2 - 2	2 - 2
Atlantic Coast	Virginia	1 - 2	1 - 2
Atlantic Coast	NC St.	1 - 3	1 - 3
Big East	W. Virginia	3 - 0	3 - 0
Big East	Pittsburgh	3 - 0	2 - 0
Big East	Connecticut	4 - 0	3 - 1
Big East	South Florida	3 - 1	3 - 1
Big East	Cincinnati	2 - 1	2 - 1
Big East	Louisville	3 - 0	2 - 1
Big East	Rutgers	1 - 2	2 - 1
Big East	Syracuse	2 - 2	2 - 2
Big Ten	Ohio State	4 - 0	4 - 0
Big Ten	Indiana	3 - 0	3 - 0
Big Ten	Wisconsin	3 - 0	3 - 0
Big Ten	Iowa	3 - 1	3 - 1
Big Ten	Minn.	3 - 1	3 - 1
Big Ten	Northwestern	4 - 0	3 - 1
Big Ten	Penn State	4 - 0	3 - 1
Big Ten	Illinois	2 - 1	2 - 1
Big Ten	Michigan	3 - 0	2 - 1
Big Ten	Purdue	3 - 0	2 - 1
Big Ten	Michigan State	2 - 2	2 - 2
Big Twelve	Kansas	4 - 0	4 - 0
Big Twelve	Texas Tech	4 - 0	4 - 0
Big Twelve	Texas	4 - 0	4 - 0
Big Twelve	Nebraska	3 - 0	3 - 0
Big Twelve	Oklahoma	3 - 0	3 - 0
Big Twelve	Missouri	4 - 0	3 - 1
Big Twelve	Colorado	2 - 1	2 - 1
Big Twelve	Kansas State	2 - 1	2 - 1
Big Twelve	Oklahoma State	3 - 0	2 - 1
Big Twelve	Texas A&M	1 - 2	2 - 1
Big Twelve	Baylor	1 - 3	2 - 2
Big Twelve	Iowa State	1 - 3	2 - 2
Conference USA	Houston	3 - 1	3 - 1
Conference USA	Tulsa	2 - 1	2 - 1
Conference USA	UCF	2 - 1	2 - 1
Conference USA	East Carolina	2 - 2	2 - 2
Conference USA	Marshall	2 - 2	2 - 2
Conference USA	Memphis	1 - 3	2 - 2
Conference USA	Rice	2 - 2	2 - 2
Conference USA	S. Miss	3 - 1	2 - 2
Conference USA	SMU	2 - 2	2 - 2
Conference USA	UTEP	1 - 2	1 - 2
Conference USA	UAB	1 - 3	1 - 3
Conference USA	Tulane	0 - 3	0 - 3
Independents (FBS)	Notre Dame	2 - 1	2 - 1
Independents (FBS)	Navy	2 - 2	2 - 2
Independents (FBS)	Western Kentucky	2 - 2	2 - 2
Independents (FBS)	Army	1 - 2	1 - 2
Mid-American	W. Michigan	3 - 1	3 - 1
Mid-American	Ball State	3 - 1	2 - 2
Mid-American	C. Michigan	2 - 2	2 - 2
Mid-American	Kent St.	3 - 1	2 - 2
Mid-American	Miami (OH)	2 - 2	2 - 2
Mid-American	Temple	2 - 2	2 - 2
Mid-American	Bowling Green	0 - 3	1 - 2
Mid-American	Northern Illinois	1 - 2	1 - 2
Mid-American	Toledo	1 - 2	1 - 2
Mid-American	Akron	1 - 3	1 - 3
Mid-American	Buffalo	1 - 3	1 - 3
Mid-American	E. Michigan	1 - 3	1 - 3
Mid-American	Ohio	0 - 4	1 - 3
Mountain West	Brigham Young	4 - 0	3 - 1
Mountain West	TCU	4 - 0	3 - 1
Mountain West	Utah	3 - 1	3 - 1
Mountain West	Air Force	2 - 2	2 - 2
Mountain West	New Mexico	2 - 2	2 - 2
Mountain West	UNLV	2 - 2	2 - 2
Mountain West	Wyoming	2 - 2	2 - 2
Mountain West	Colorado St.	1 - 2	1 - 2
Mountain West	San Diego State	1 - 2	1 - 2
Pacific-10	Arizona St.	3 - 1	3 - 1
Pacific-10	Arizona	3 - 1	3 - 1
Pacific-10	Oregon	3 - 1	3 - 1
Pacific-10	California	3 - 0	2 - 1
Pacific-10	Oregon State	2 - 1	2 - 1
Pacific-10	Washington St.	2 - 2	2 - 2
Pacific-10	USC	1 - 1	1 - 1
Pacific-10	UCLA	1 - 2	1 - 2
Pacific-10	Stanford	1 - 3	1 - 3
Pacific-10	Washington	0 - 3	0 - 3
Southeastern	Georgia	4 - 0	4 - 0
Southeastern	LSU	4 - 0	4 - 0
Southeastern	Florida	3 - 0	3 - 0
Southeastern	Alabama	3 - 1	3 - 1
Southeastern	Auburn	3 - 1	3 - 1
Southeastern	Mississippi State	2 - 2	3 - 1
Southeastern	Mississippi	3 - 1	3 - 1
Southeastern	S. Carolina	3 - 1	3 - 1
Southeastern	Kentucky	2 - 1	2 - 1
Southeastern	Tennessee	2 - 1	2 - 1
Southeastern	Arkansas	2 - 2	2 - 2
Southeastern	Vanderbilt	0 - 4	1 - 3
Sun Belt	Arkansas St.	2 - 2	2 - 2
Sun Belt	Florida Atlantic	2 - 2	2 - 2
Sun Belt	LA-Monroe	2 - 2	2 - 2
Sun Belt	LA-Laf	0 - 3	1 - 2
Sun Belt	Mid Tenn	1 - 3	1 - 3
Sun Belt	Troy	1 - 3	1 - 3
Sun Belt	Fla. Int.	0 - 3	0 - 3
Sun Belt	North Texas	0 - 3	0 - 3
Western Athletic	Boise State	2 - 1	2 - 1
Western Athletic	Fresno State	2 - 1	2 - 1
Western Athletic	New Mexico State	1 - 2	2 - 1
Western Athletic	Idaho	2 - 2	2 - 2
Western Athletic	San Jose State	2 - 2	2 - 2
Western Athletic	Hawaii	1 - 2	1 - 2
Western Athletic	Louisiana Tech	1 - 2	1 - 2
Western Athletic	Nevada	1 - 2	1 - 2
Western Athletic	Utah State	0 - 4	0 - 4

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