A Mountain West-Conference USA Merger Would Beat the BCS System

The Mountain West has performed magnificently over the past two years, sending a team to the BCS both years. But, in their pursuit of an automatic BCS bid, there has been one thing holding them back: the poor performance of those other six teams in their conference.

Boise State, BYU, and TCU have finished in the Top 25 for back-to-back years, but Air Force, Colorado State, Wyoming, New Mexico, UNLV, and San Diego State have been lagging.

After the BCS released their qualifications for a conference to obtain an automatic bid, it became evident that the Mountain West was just outside of inclusion because of their poor computer ranking average:

2008-2009 Average (Before this week):

1. (38.5) SEC
2. (40.3) ACC
3. (42.9) Big East
4. (45.4) Big 12
5. (48.7) Big Ten (w/ Nebraska)
6. (48.9) Pac-10 (w/ Utah and Colorado)
7. (58.1) MWC (w/ Boise St)

After adding Nevada and Fresno State this week, that average will inch up to (57.2). And, if the Mountain West adds Houston, as many hope, it will rise only to (56.8).

It should be noted that there are still two years worth of data yet to be created and that this is a rather fluid situation. But, unless the conference drops dead weight (an impossibility under current by-laws) it will be stuck on the outside looking in.

That is, unless they can find another way to quietly shuffle off those weaker sisters into another conference.

Enter Conference USA

This league has had less notoriety at the top of the polls but is still rather deep, led by East Carolina, Tulsa, and the aforementioned Houston.

Conventional wisdom would say that a merger of the two would produce a Super-Conference that was, well, Super-Mediocre.

But, the top half of each conference (the top six teams), when combined, would hold a computer average of (48.5), ahead of two of the "Big Six" BCS Conferences.

Commissioners Thompson and Banowsky, respectively of the Mountain West and Conference USA, met yesterday to discuss a possible scheduling and television merger.

Could these two conferences merge their top halves to form a BCS-ready league?

The Merger

Having teams fly from East Carolina to San Diego or from Central Florida to Boise each week will not work. These teams are content with their current rivals and nobody wants to see their annual games turn into once-every-12-years games.

No, each team will only play one game against the opposing conference. One year at home, the next on the road. This game is needed because two divisions must have a total of five or more games played between them in order to be considered part of the same conference.

The first and most painful step will be separating the Mountain West and Conference USA into two divisions a piece. One with the top teams and one with all the rest.

Currently their are 23 teams in the league, so Navy, Temple, or a Sun Belt or MAC team will need to be brought in. Most likely, then, UTEP will be forced into the Mountain West to bring the two conferences to an equal 12 teams a piece.

The top six teams in a conference (as well as the bottom six teams) will play five games against each other and three games against their conference's other division. This will assure that all Mountain West and all Conference USA teams will continue to play eight games within their leagues.

A ninth cross-conference game will be added between teams in the same half (upper/lower) of their respective conferences.

Because dividing a conference into better and worse halves may split life-long rivals, teams may secure up to three permanent rivals who they will play regardless of which division they are in.

The BCS

Both conferences will continue operating separately in all other sports. Their upper divisions will be declared one separate football conference as well as their lower divisions.

The upper football conference will thus be eligible for consideration by the BCS for the seventh AQ spot that will be determined after next year's regular season.

Presumably, the conference's BCS "worthiness" will be re-evaluated every two years hence, so shuffling teams between the upper and lower divisions may be necessary in the future.

Will the BCS allow such a conference an automatic bid AND the $17 million paycheck? They will be forced to as long as the two conferences can field an upper football conference that outpaces at least one BCS conference in the computer rankings.

The Divisions?

Based on current computer rankings, here are the upper and lower divisions of both conferences (computer averages in parentheses). It is interesting to note that both conferences currently field six of the top 12 teams in this new amalgamation.

Upper Mountain Division

Boise St (7.125)
TCU (7.750)
BYU (16.625)
Air Force (49.125)
Nevada (53.250)
Fresno St (53.750)

Upper USA Division

East Carolina (39.625)
Houston (52.500)
Tulsa (71.250)
Southern Miss (76.000)
Central Florida (77.250)
*Rice (78.125)

Lower Mountain Division

UNLV (79.250)
Wyoming (79.500)
Colorado St (79.750)
UTEP (94.375)
New Mexico (100.875)
SDSU (102.500)

Lower USA Division

Marshall (85.125)
SMU (92.125)
UAB (95.125)
Memphis (102.500)
Tulane (109.875)
*C Michigan (42.125)
*Navy (47.750)
*Temple (73.500)

*Central Michigan and Navy would both continue to improve the conference's average. Although, Temple has been rumoured to have been contacted by Conference USA.

Again, these are based off of only two years of data. Any decision on which teams would be in which division would be based on the inclusion of at least this year's data and probably 2011's data as well.

Conclusion

It is a bold move, not unlike the recent raids on the WAC. Currently, it is feasible. The most time pressing issue now is preparing teams for the possibility of a ninth conference game.

At worst, each team could line up one game against the other conference for the 2012 season as an OOC game in preparation for a shared TV deal. The SMU-TCU and UTEP-NMU rivalries are also already on the schedule. Even Air Force-Navy could become a conference game.

Because Nevada, Fresno State, and the 24th team will most likely not be playing in conference until 2012 anyway, if the BCS gives an 11th hour "no-go" because of poor computer rankings, then the two conferences can continue with their own separate championship games and, perhaps, a shared television contract without missing a beat.