Breaking Down the Big Ten, Part Eleven: The Ohio State Buckeyes
The Ohio State Buckeyes have won five Big Ten championships in a row, and are currently favored to win the conference this season.
If they do win the championship, they would tie their own record—established between 1972 and 1977—of six in a row.
As it turns out, there is another similarity between the 2005-2009 Buckeyes, and the Bucks between '72 and '77.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Specifically, both have had postseason failures that have marred the programs historical reputation and national prestige.
Between 1972 and 1977, Woody Hayes' teams went 2-4 in postseason play. They also went 1-3 in Rose Bowl appearances. That included one embarrassing 42-17 loss to USC in the 1973 Rose Bowl, and an equally embarrassing 35-6 thrashing against Alabama in the 1978 Sugar Bowl.
Meanwhile, since 2005, Jim Tressel's Buckeyes are 2-3 in postseason play. Most notable amongst those losses were two National Championship game collapses; one against Florida in 2007 , and another against LSU in 2008 .
I recently wrote an article in which I commented that due to OSU's dominance of the Big Ten, they have nothing to gain and everything to lose in conference play. Furthermore, winning the conference will do nothing to help them shed the "overrated" label they have acquired, mostly due to those aforementioned National Championship game collapses.
Perhaps saying they have "nothing to gain" is a bit far-fetched, but it is fair to say that winning the Big Ten will do nothing to enhance their national reputation.
For OSU to erase their past failures, for them to silence so much of the national media and particularly the SEC media, they need to get to another BCS game, and win convincingly. Moreover, it would help if that BCS game is the National Championship, and it is against an SEC team.
Perhaps all of this is unfair, because in my book, five Big Ten championships in a row is always an impressive feat. Nonetheless, that is the price of success, and that is the situation Ohio State is in.
The only way the Buckeyes can call 2010 a successful season is a BCS bowl win.
Offense
These are the facts.
In 2009, OSU was ranked fifth in Big Ten scoring offense . They ranked ninth in total offense . They were third in rushing , and dead last in passing offense .
This leaves three questions. Firstly, can Ohio State repeat or surpass last season's success with that productivity? I would say that they cannot, as the Big Ten is too strong a conference this season.
Secondly, which players are returning from last season's offense and can they improve? I'll get to that shortly.
Thirdly, do any of those stats really matter? The fact of the matter is that this year's offense is in the hand's of one player: Quarterback Terrelle Pryor. If he plays like he did in the Rose Bowl, then the Buckeyes' offense will be better. If he plays like he did against Purdue or USC, then the Bucks might be in trouble.
Before getting to Pryor, let's look at the rest of the team.
For the school that invented "three yards and a cloud of dust," it begins with the offensive line, and OSU has a good one.
Most preseason publications consider their line to be a top five unit .
They return every starter, two of who are seniors, and three of who are juniors.
From left-to-right, the line will be as follows: Junior Mike Adams, senior Justin Boren, junior Mike Brewster, senior Bryant Browning, and junior J.B. Shugarts.
If it weren't for the Wisconsin Badgers returning so many experienced O-linemen, it is possible that four-fifths of the All-Big Ten O-line would be Buckeyes.
As it stands, Phil Steele tabbed Boren and Brewster as All-Big Ten first-teamers. He also named Adams and Browning second-teamers, while Shugarts was picked for the fourth-team.
As previously mentioned, OSU had the third best rushing offense in the conference. In conference games-only, they were the best rushing offense.
The primary beneficiary of those rushing yards was Terrelle Pryor, who led the team with 779 yards, rushing for seven touchdowns, and a 4.81 yards per carry average.
On top of Pryor's yards, the Bucks had two backs—senior Brandon Saine and junior Daniel Herron—with over 500 yards on the ground. Both of them return this season.
Saine, who is nicknamed "Zoom", picked up 739 yards for four touchdowns and a 5.1 yard average. Meanwhile, Herron, who is nicknamed "Boom", picked up 600 yards for seven touchdowns and a 3.92 yard average.
2009 was the first season since 2004 that Ohio State did not have a 1,000-yard rusher, but given their combined rushing stats, that is an irrelevant statistic.
Nonetheless, as Tressel prefers to have one featured back, it is likely that he will settle on somebody this year. Odds are, it will be Saine.
At receiver, the Buckeyes return both of their starters.
The first is junior DeVier Posey. Last season, he picked up 60 receptions for 828 yards and eight touchdowns. The second is senior Dane Sanzenbacher. In 2009, he made 35 catches for 563 yards and six touchdowns.
With the graduation of Ray Small and the transfer of Duron Carter , the rest of the receiving corps is wide open.
Right now, senior Taurian Washington is the third man, but he is being pushed by redshirt freshman Chris Fields, as well as true freshman Corey "Philly" Brown.
Meanwhile, the one graduation on the offense is tight end Jake Ballard. Sophomore Jake Stoneburner will take his place.
Stoneburner came to OSU intending to play receiver , but that was 30 pounds ago. Now standing at 6'5", 245-pounds, Stoneburner certainly looks the part. Furthermore, rumor has it that the Buckeye offense plans to utilize the tight end a good deal more than last season.
Then there is Terrelle Pryor who is, not so arguably, the most indispensable player in college football this season. I'm not necessarily saying he is the best player. I am saying that Jim Tressel has fashioned his offense around Pryor , and if he goes down, the Bucks will be nowhere near the same team.
As has already been inferred from last season, Pryor was probably a more effective rusher than he was a passer , at least overall. On top of that, due to turnovers against Indiana, Wisconsin, and especially Purdue, Jim Tressel effectively took the ball out of his quarterback's hands.
Over the last five games of the regular season, Pryor averaged just under 20 pass attempts per game. Moreover, most of those passes were short, high-percentage throws as he averaged 6.6 yards per completion.
Nevertheless, as is well known by now, Pryor had something of a coming out party in the Rose Bowl. He attempted 37 passes, completing 62.2 percent for 266 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. He also rushed for 72 yards.
Of course, it should be noted that Oregon had the 35th-ranked defense in the country. While that is certainly respectable, both Iowa and Penn State will be better.
If Pryor has indeed turned the corner, one can expect more passing and less rushing from him. This would be similar to former OSU quarterback Troy Smith, who had 611 yards rushing his junior year, and then only ran for 204 his senior year. Meanwhile, he made those yards up through the air.
The Bucks should have a better offense in 2010, but most importantly, it should be more balanced, and less prone to turnovers.
This season, as goes Terrelle Pryor, so goes the Buckeyes.
Defense
The OSU defense loses six full-time starters from last year's squad, including linemen Doug Worthington, Todd Denlinger, and Thaddeus Gibson, linebacker Austin Spitler, and safeties, Kurt Coleman and Anderson Russell. On top of those players, they lose key depth, especially on the line.
For most teams, those losses would be crippling. For OSU, it shouldn't matter that much.
Since Jim Tressel became the head coach in 2001, the Buckeyes have never failed to rank as a top 20 defense.
In 2004, OSU returned four defensive starters, and featured an offense that was, at times, morbid. The defense still ranked 19th in national scoring defense . In 2006, the Buckeyes returned exactly two defensive starters. They finished the season as the fifth highest-ranked defense in the country.
In short, if anybody expects Ohio State's defense to be soft, they do so at their own peril.
Up front, despite the losses, OSU shouldn't miss a step.
It begins with second-team All-Big Ten defensive end, senior Cameron Heyward. Heyward is extremely versatile, as he can play both inside and out. Though his statistics weren't what one would consider gaudy , most teams have and will specifically gameplan against him.
He is a a Playboy Preseason All-American , and is a lock to get picked in the first round of next year's NFL draft .
The other returning starter will be defensive tackle, Dexter Larimore. Larimore missed a lot of games last season due to injury. As a senior, Larimore's role will be increased. In effect, he will need to stay healthy.
True sophomore John Simon will line up at the other tackle position. He is a training room fixture that had one of the most productive springs of any Buckeye. In limited play last season, he picked up 16 tackles, .5 sacks, and 3.5 tackles for loss.
Finally, junior Nathan Williams will line up at the Bucks' LEO end. He is a pass rushing specialist that recorded 3.5 sacks and eight tackles-for-loss in back-up duty last season.
Rounding out the line will be redshirt freshmen Adam Bellamy and Melvin Fellows, sophomore Garrett Goebel, and junior Solomon Thomas.
Graduations or not, this line will be one of the top three in the conference.
The linebackers are also a solid unit with both weakside linebacker Ross Homan and middle linebacker Brian Rolle returning.
Homan, a senior, is a coverage specialist. Last season, he led the team in both interceptions and tackles, recording five picks and 108 stops. Homan is the leader of this defense, and along with Heyward, is the most indispensable player.
Rolle was a solid, if not unspectacular—by Buckeye standards—player last year. In 2009, he recorded 94 tackles, one interception, seven tackles-for-loss, and .5 sacks. As a senior, he will be expected to increase his role this year.
Junior Etienne Sabino is the primary candidate at the strong side linebacker position. He is a heavy hitter that mostly played on special teams last season.
However, Sabino is being pushed by fellow junior, Andrew Sweat. Sweat missed the second half of last season as well as spring practices with a leg injury. Nevertheless, he has been very strong in fall camp.
Also of note is redshirt freshman Dorian Bell , who will line up behind Homan.
This should be one of the top two linebacking units in the conference.
The one questionable area for the Bucks is the secondary.
They graduated both of their safeties, and last year, their cornerbacks—both of who are returning—occasionally struggled in coverage.
Combined, the projected starters had five picks last season. That equals the total that departed strong safety Kurt Coleman had on his own.
At the corners will be seniors Chimdi Chekwa and Devon Torrence . While both were solid last season—OSU ranked 15th against the pass—they will be counted on to be bigger playmakers this year.
Behind them, there is no experienced depth though it being Ohio State, there is plenty of talent.
Senior Jermale Hines will move from his STAR position to the starting free safety. Hines has plenty of experience and is a proven commodity in run support. However, he will be expected to improve his coverage skills and positioning before the Bucks' first game.
At the STAR position—which is a hybrid safety/linebacker—is one of the feel-good stories of the year, Tyler Moeller is back from an off-the-field injury and seems to have the STAR locked down.
Finally, sophomore Orhian Johnson will start at strong safety. Johnson came to OSU as an athlete/quarterback, but was Kurt Coleman's understudy last season . His primary competition for the starting job will come from Moeller .
In closing, there is a difference between being a top 20 and a top 10 defense. Even if that difference is letting up an extra two points per game, those two points can be the difference between a win and a loss.
In effect, the question is not will this defense be good, but just how good will this defense be?
Schedule
The Bucks begin the season with a Thursday night home game against the Marshall Thundering Herd. The Herd are led by first-year coach Doc Holliday (no, not this guy. By the way, I propose that for this game, Jim Tressel dresses up as Ike Clanton), and project to be an average team out of Conference USA.
In the BCS-era, OSU has never lost to a non-BCS team.
After Marshall, Jim Tressel and Co. will have nine days to prepare for a home game against the Miami (Fl) Hurricanes. However, Miami 's first game is also on a Thursday, thus giving them nine days of preparation.
The Miami game will be followed by home games against the MAC's Ohio Bobcats and Eastern Michigan, neither of whom should stand a chance against the Bucks.
The Big Ten slate starts with a trip to Illinois, followed by a home game against Indiana.
After that, OSU has a big date in Madison against the Badgers, that could have Big Ten title repercussions.
The Buckeyes then head home for a revenge game against the Purdue Boilermakers. This is followed by a road game at Minnesota, after which Ohio State gets a week off before the home stretch.
Said "home stretch" kicks off with a home date against Penn State. This is followed by a road game against Iowa, and finishes with the big game against Michigan, which will be played in Columbus.
Unless Terrelle Pryor implodes or gets injured, OSU will not have a repeat of last year's Purdue game.
Consequently, it is relatively safe to write down their games against Marshall, Ohio, EMU, Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, and Minnesota as wins.
Thus, for Ohio State, the road back to the National Championship goes through Miami (Fl), Wisconsin, Penn State, Iowa, and Michigan.
Intangibles
Ohio State is one of those rare teams that is usually so good—in comparison to its competition—that intangibles are often irrelevant.
Injuries, turnovers, bad calls. Due to the team's inherent talent those elements of play tend not to matter.
However, for two straight years OSU has had an unbelievably high turnover margin of over plus one.
While it is controversial, the facts seem to support the idea that turnovers are a randomly fluctuating statistic , despite talent.
For example, while OSU has had a very positive turnover margin the last two seasons, they were negative in 2007 , a year in which they went to the National Championship.
In 2006, they were positive . In 2005, they were very negative . In 2004, they were slightly negative .
Again, this is controversial. Nevertheless, the following three statements are undeniably true: Firstly, the turnover margin seems to swing, to some degree, regardless of the relative skill level of the team. Secondly, and not coincidentally, in 2002—OSU's National Championship year—they were one of the top 20 teams in turnover margin .
Finally, if there is something to the idea that turnovers fluctuate from year-to-year, then it is safe to assume that OSU is due for a sizable downturn.
Will that downturn matter in their games against Ohio, Marshall, or Indiana?
Highly doubtful, but it may mean the difference between a win or a loss when they play Iowa or Wisconsin.
Worst Case Scenario
Ohio State comes out and solidly beats Marshall, but the offense—and particularly Terrelle Pryor—look more like the team that limped to the end of the regular season, than the one that won the Rose Bowl.
Furthermore, the defense is good, as per usual Ohio State standards, but they don't look great. They don't strike fear into the hearts of their opponents.
This continues into the Miami (Fl.) game, in which Pryor throws a couple of picks. However, the OSU defense and special teams save the day, and Ohio State wins a close one. .
The Bucks come back and win the next four. However, even a casual fan can sense Jim Tressel's trepidation where it concerns his junior quarterback.
Heading into Madison, Buck fans can do nothing but watch as Wisconsin controls Pryor and the clock, and grinds out a 10-point win.
OSU comes back against Purdue and Minnesota, and then go back to the drawing board in their off week.
It is to no avail, as Penn State pulls the upset.
However, heading into Iowa City they still have a shot—albeit a slim shot—at winning the Big Ten Title.
They look much more impressive than they did against Wisconsin, but they still lose by two field goals, and their hold on the Big Ten Championship comes to an end at five.
On the other hand, their win streak over Michigan continues, with their seventh win in a row over the Wolverines.
Final Record: 9-3, which really isn't all that bad a "worst case scenario" unless you are the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Best Case Scenario
OSU comes out on a mission to get back to the National Championship game. Furthermore, Terrelle Pryor comes out on a mission to prove that the Rose Bowl was a step forward, and not an anomaly.
The Bucks roll over Navy, and surprise a number of pundits by beating Miami (Fl.) fairly easily.
They destroy their next four opponents, and at 6-0, they head into Madison to play an undefeated Badger team. The game is closest they've played up to that point, but they win by a touchdown, taking advantage of Badger turnovers, and Pryor's increasingly sophisticated passing abilities.
Ohio State proceeds to destroy Purdue and Minnesota. They also take out Penn State fairly easily.
This brings them to Iowa City with a record of 10-0. Iowa is 9-1, and the Big Ten Championship is still on the line.
The Hawkeyes defense does a good job of containing Pryor, but the Buckeye defense does a good job of stifling Iowa quarterback, Ricky Stanzi.
In the end, in classic Tressel/Ferentz fashion, OSU pulls out the victory by a score of 14-10.
With the Big Ten clinched, all they have to do is beat Michigan and they are going to the National Championship.
That is exactly what they do, and they receive a bid to play against whichever SEC team comes out on top.
The Buckeyes finally win, and they bring Jim Tressel his second National Championship.
Unfortunately, the day after the game, Terrelle Pryor announces his intention to forgo his senior season and declare for the NFL draft.
My Prediction
In poker, there is a play called " betting on the come ." I am not a poker player, but to my understanding, when one bets on the come, he/she is essentially betting that the best possible outcome will happen.
Predicting sports games—at least for an amateur like me—is much the same thing. Am I betting that Michigan State's pass defense will improve? Am I betting that Michigan will take better care of the football? Do I believe that Penn State will be able to replace three All-Big Ten linebackers?
Certainly, history and trends play a part in any conclusion one makes, but in the end, it's all a guessing game.
To some large degree, any prognostication that can be made about the Buckeyes comes down to one thing: Has Terrelle Pryor's passing game progressed to the point that Jim Tressel will trust him with the OSU offense?
We know no matter who has graduated, the Buckeyes will have one of the top three defenses in the conference. We also know that OSU has talented running backs and receivers, and they've got an experienced, powerful O-line. Finally, we know Jim Tressel always fields solid special teams.
But what of the quarterback, because he will be the difference between 9-3 and 12-0? Are you betting on the come?
As for me, yes, I am betting on the come. I think Pryor is the real deal, or, at the very least, he will be improved enough to beat every team on OSU's schedule.
I will note that if Pryor has indeed improved, the only teams that I think have a reasonable shot against Ohio State are Iowa and Wisconsin. Penn State will not be at that level of play this year, and I'm just not buying the Miami (Fl.) hype, at least not against a quality defense.
Therefore, I have no reason not to believe that the Buckeyes won't go 12-0, and play for the National Championship.
Nonetheless, it's what they do when they get there that really matters to this program.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
