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In this college football season preview, I'm not going to talk about quarterbacks and defensive backs, veteran seniors and breakout freshman, or coaches and coordinators...

Why USC Will Win the National Championship

by Jordan Schwartz (Senior Writer)

52

1,901 reads

Preview/Prediction

August 03, 2008


In this college football season preview, I'm not going to talk about quarterbacks and defensive backs, veteran seniors and breakout freshman, or coaches and coordinators.

Why not?

Because as long as the Bowl Championship Series is in place, none of that will matter as much as one thing: your schedule.

The computer doesn't care a whole lot about who you play or the strength of your conference, it cares mostly about how many losses you have and when they happen.

Before the 2007 season, I predicted LSU would win the National Championship.  Not because Les Miles was a great coach or because Matt Flynn was a good field general, but because they played most of their rivals at home.

I figured they'd be able to beat Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Florida, and Auburn because all of those games took place in Baton Rouge.  Their only tough road games were at Kentucky and Alabama and so I decided they had the best chance of being in the top two of the final BCS rankings. 

Because you can't win the title game unless you're in it.

The Tigers wound up losing in triple overtime at Kentucky and then again in three extra sessions at home against Arkansas, but because their schedule was favorable enough, they were still able to win 11 games and the SEC Championship. This put them in the BCS Championship game against an overmatched Ohio State team that they were able to beat by two touchdowns.

USC was ranked ahead of LSU in the preseason polls last year, but I didn't pick them to go all the way because I figured their difficult schedule wouldn't allow them to finish the year in the BCS's top two. 

The Trojans had to play at Nebraska, Oregon, Cal, and Arizona State. While their incredible upset loss to Stanford is what kept them out of the title game, they probably would have been able to overcome that one loss had it not been that they also fell to the Ducks.

But I believe this year will be different for Southern California, and it's all about the schedule.

Below, I break down the schedules for each of the teams ranked in the Top 25 of the preseason Coaches’ Poll, explaining why I think each school will or will not make it to the BCS title game.

 

1 - Georgia (Predicted Regular Season Record: 10-2, 7-1)

The Bulldogs are the top ranked team in the land right now, but that might not last for too long due to their hellacious schedule.  Georgia plays five teams ranked in the Top 25 (at ASU, Tennessee, at LSU, Florida, at Auburn) and another four games against schools that are just outside the rankings (at South Carolina, Alabama, at Kentucky, Georgia Tech). 

I've got to figure the Dogs will lose two of those difficult five road games, which should leave them on the outside looking in. Even if they can beat out Tennessee and Florida to earn a spot in the SEC Championship game.

 

2 - USC (12-0, 9-0)

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52 comments Last one added 11 months ago — Leave a Comment

  1. BabyTate 11 months ago

    I like this article, especially your point of the schedule and thereby giving Georgia 2 losses in your predictions. I agree with Wake Forest being the sleeper, in fact I'll call for them to be the team that beats Clemson.

    Outstanding. And no homerism! Thank you for a great read.

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  2. Nick The Only 11 months ago

    Where do you see Florida's two losses coming? They dominated Tennessee and FSU last year. Do you think they lose to LSU (who beat them by only 4 last year in Baton Rouge) and Georgia?

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    • Jordan Schwartz 11 months ago

      I think they lose at Georgia and Tennessee. Even if they can win at UT, they still have tough games at FSU and home against LSU, Kentucky and South Carolina. It's so difficult to get through the SEC East schedule with only one loss.

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    • Rob Sansing 11 months ago

      florida catches a real break in the SEC "rotating" schedule this year: they don't have to play auburn!!!

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  3. Nick The Only 11 months ago

    Also, couldn't USC's easy schedule hurt them if they lose to OSU? It will be difficult for them to gain ground on any 1 loss team from SEC and Big 12 because those teams will have more ranked opponents and a conference title game to boost them in the BCS computers.

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    • Jordan Schwartz 11 months ago

      Starting in the number two spot in the rankings, USC doesn't need a lot of ranked opponents on their schedule to move up the rankings if they lose to OSU. They just need wins. And they should be able to get plenty of those with their schedule the rest of the way.

      I think if you ask any college coach, they'd tell you they'd rather not play a conference championship game because it's just one more chance to lose.

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  4. Nick The Only 11 months ago

    Same goes for WVU. A one-loss WVU would not get into the title game over a one-loss SEC or Big 10 or Big 12 team.

    Your entire season's predictions hinge on USC beating OSU and WVU beating Auburn. I don't see both of those games being won by the home teams.

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    • Jordan Schwartz 11 months ago

      A one-loss WVU would've been in the title game last year and it's so much harder for a team from the SEC, Big 10 or Big 12 to finish with just one loss than it is for a team from the Big East.

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    • David Kuykendall 11 months ago

      nick you are more wrong than you think. 1st wvu plays 2 tough road games and has a top 40 schedule coming into the seasonand with the way things are unless major upsets happen ru,uconn,and maby evne ul will be ranked when wvu plays them the sec is gonna be aweful this year do to loss of talent with only 1 major player returning from last year the big 10 is the worst conf in the bcs because of only 2, 3 teams being ranked at the end of the year. the big 12 i think is a titan but ou will be the team to represent and if usc dosent make it to miami than ou will and wvu will have a upper hand in that game because of speed and pat white so wvu and OU is my prediction but usc is my number 2 pick

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    • David Kuykendall 11 months ago

      nick you are more wrong than you think. 1st wvu plays 2 tough road games and has a top 40 schedule coming into the seasonand with the way things are unless major upsets happen ru,uconn,and maby evne ul will be ranked when wvu plays them the sec is gonna be aweful this year do to loss of talent with only 1 major player returning from last year the big 10 is the worst conf in the bcs because of only 2, 3 teams being ranked at the end of the year. the big 12 i think is a titan but ou will be the team to represent and if usc dosent make it to miami than ou will and wvu will have a upper hand in that game because of speed and pat white so wvu and OU is my prediction but usc is my number 2 pick

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  5. Thomas Brown 11 months ago

    PAC 10 BABY!!

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  6. Jordan Tippitt 11 months ago

    the last poll i saw actually had usc as the number 1 team starting out and if i am correct the preseason number 1 hasnt one the national championship in quite a few years. plus since college football is becoming more even throughout i dont really know if a team can really go undefeated. i do, however, believe that usc has a very good chance at being in the national championship but with one loss because they are an excellent team and their conference is not as strong as the sec. I dont know if wvu will actuall make the national championship as last year there wasnt much consistancy in their play. even though they only lost twice there were many weeks they almost lost and i just dont know if they can beat auburn. but an interesting prediction.

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  7. nixk love 11 months ago

    dude ohio state will roll this year get a clue. They are far better than last years team. Returning 19 starters from the team that went to the title game. Plus they have added alot of young speed on offense and a great dual threat qb in T. Pryor. Wisconsin should suck and are breaking in a new qb. They Illini road game will be a revenge game for the buckeyes. Michigan will be a cream puff and Penn St has never beaten ohio state at columbus. As for the USC game that will be interesting to see which team is clicking on offense smart money says the buckeyes since they are not breaking in a new qb and 4 out of 5 o-linemen.

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  8. Nick The Only 11 months ago

    I think USC is vastly overrated this year. USC has a bunch of question marks along the offensive line, an unproven QB, no big-play receivers, and has to replace some significant defensive talent. Big programs do reload, but I just think there are too many good teams out there for USC to go all the way. I expect them to lose to OSU and to at least one of their Pac 10 opponents.

    If USC played OSU later in the season, then I think they'd stand a better chance at winning. OSU will be the more experienced and big game tested team. USC will still have many green players adjusting to starting at a big time FBS school.

    I also think that WVU takes a step back this year. Their offense is going to be too reliant on Pat White and Noel Devine and their defense lost a lot of talent. WVU will be lucky to win 10 games this year.

    Georgia's schedule will do them in.

    Oklahoma has a great shot at the title game if Bradford doesn't experience a sophomore slump. That team has a great offensive line and a good running back too. Oklahoma's schedule is very favorable with their biggest challenges coming at home.

    OSU should beat USC and will be in the title picture as long as they take care of the Big 10. Besides the USC game, OSU has a fairly favorable schedule.

    Florida is the other team to watch out for. Florida gets it two toughest opponents at home and at a neutral site. Florida had no trouble with Tennessee or FSU last year and should be able to win both of those games.

    The three teams that will be vying for a title birth are Oklahoma, Florida, and OSU. If they all have the same loss record, then OSU's recent title game ineptness could keep them out.

    The other team

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    • Rob Sansing 11 months ago

      we agree about several points, nick, particularly so-cal being over rated and west-va missing a bunch of defensive people.
      despite their failings in the past 2 championship games, I will be surprised if ohio-state doesn't make it again (and I won't comment about their weak big10 schedule, it's not ohio-state's fault they are in a league with a bunch of teams having down years).
      and, yeah, oklahoma looks like a likely opponent, but I hope georgia or florida or tennesse or auburn or LSU can survive and make it 3 in a row for the SEC.

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    • David Kuykendall 11 months ago

      nick west va plays in a conf that has had 4 teams in th last 2 years be within in title contention and the only reason we ont have 2 title s right now is because we play in the big east. in 06 west va number 3 lost to ul, ul was number 3 lost to ru, ru was number 4 lost to cincy. 07 west va number 4 lost to usf usf ranked number 2 lost to ru west va number 2 lost to pitt all of those teams lost to big east teams the big east is tough than most give them credit for. now wvu lost players that started yes but on defense their backups had just as much time as them look it up we have experienced players not freshmen playing in theire first big game so your theory is crap

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  9. Lisa Horne 11 months ago

    This is what I don't get...why everyone includes Alabama and South Carolina as "big" games in the SEC. If that's the case, then shouldn't Oregon State and UCLA be included in Pac-10 play as "big games"?

    Bama and South Carolina were .500 teams, and if they are considered "big games", then so should teams that finish with a winning or even record in the Pac-10. Bottom line is that South Carolina and Bama are getting way more props than they deserve. Yes they can sneak up and bite teams, but so can Stanford, Colorado, Illinois...every conference has spoilers, so the argument is moot.

    But I like your basis for rankings. Sked is huge, and Georgia won't survive it...but man if they did, we should just crown them in December instead of playing the game in January.

    I don't think either an ACC or Big East team will go to the title game. No way. And no way a Big Ten team goes, unless Buckeyes beat USC. The voters are going to vote for an SEC team vs Pac-10 or Big 12...you can count on it.

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    • Rob Sansing 11 months ago

      re: alabama & south carolina. remember last year at one point s-carolina was #6 in the nation and collapsed. bama started 6-2 and collapsed. I think most folks are giving way too much credit to the teams coaches...nick saban & steve spurrier. while I think bama will improve this year, 7-5 would be an improvement!!!
      you are absolutely correct on this one, lisa. the good SEC teams (the teams that are EXPECTED to be good) should be able to beat both alabama & s-carolina.

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    • Jordan Schwartz 11 months ago

      Alabama and South Carolina are just outside the Top 25, coming in at 26th and 27th respectively, so clearly there are several coaches who believe they will be improved teams this year and especially difficult to handle at home.

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  10. john brewer 11 months ago

    lisa go to williams-brice or bryant-denny and you will know. you will understand.

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  11. Jordan Tippitt 11 months ago

    i think south carolina is a big game and alabama could be depending on if they deliver this year. remember THIS year they are big games. you cant base this season sucess on last years record alone. south carolina could be an actual contender for the east crown if a couple of things go their way.

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    • David Hedlind 11 months ago

      thats not really a great arguement either. If you cant base it on last year then every game is a big game because they could all potentially be good.

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  12. David Hedlind 11 months ago

    while it is hard to argue look at the last 2 years and USC has lost 4 games in confernece 3 they were supposed to lose. they have also had lose games with every team in the Pac 10 that they havent lost to. just because their "tough" ones are at home doesnt mean they cant lose some. 2006 both Oregon State and UCLA were away games.

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  13. Gordito Mojito 11 months ago

    Don't forget the Stanford game is an away game this year. Also for the record. With a U$C type schedule, there's a strong chance the Irish will be a one loss team with one hell of a chip on their shoulder. Blasphemy I know.

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  14. Nick Martin 11 months ago

    USC has dropped at least one Pac-10 game the last two years.
    What makes you think they won't stumble once with games at OSU, Arizona (could be a surprise team) not to mention Notre Dame one week after Stanford. They could over look them cardinals once again

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  15. Mike Turnell 11 months ago

    There is no way Michigan cracks the top-25 this year. They are pretty much in rebuilding thanks to RichRod and the arrival of his spread offense, as their whole roster is geared towards a completely different offense. They will be good again in a couple of years, just because they're Michigan and they can get high-profile recruits, but for now, they'll struggle.

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  1. Ryan Staab 11 months ago

    I think USC is a lot better on offense than most people realize. I reckon on September 14, a lot of CFB nation will breathe a collective sigh of relief that Ohio State won't be anywhere near the BCS Title Game in Miami.

    USC clobbers Ohio State on defense, 28-17

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    • Kristofer Green 11 months ago

      Ryan-

      I think Ohio State is a lot better on offense than you realize. And last I checked the OSU defense wasn't all that bad, either. USC is a little over-rated considering they are breaking in a new QB and rebuilding a offensive line. Ohio State returns 19 starters from last season's team and have 40, count them 40, fourth or fifth year players on the roster!! That is incredible. Experience counts for a lot.

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    • Ryan Staab 11 months ago

      Kris,

      I appreciate your enthusiasm toward the Buckeyes and for the most part I play devils advocate, but the only "experience" this team has is listening to a whole lot of ridicule after losing the big one to yet another SEC team. They shouldn't have been in the Title Game last year at all, and beating up on midwest patsies week after week doesn't prepare you for bigger opponents like USC or any of the teams down south.

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    • Kristofer Green 11 months ago

      Ryan-

      We obviously disagree. But saying the only experience they have is listening to the ridicule they've been getting is just not right. Saying they shouldn't have been in the title game last season is moot...they were. Yes, they were beat, but everyone forgets this was a team that over-acheived for much of the season. They were picked to finish fourth in the Big 10 and instead they won their second outright and third overall conference championship.

      I am enthusiastic about my Buckeyes, because I can see past the disappointment of the last two seasons endings and see the really incredible things this team has accomplished.

      Anyway...I'm done. I hope you have a great time at the game. Go Bucks!

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  2. Jon Ellsworth 11 months ago

    Excellent Article. You point out a glaring flaw in the system. You really don't have to be the best team in the nation to be National Champion, you just have to win all your games. That's why an overrated West Virginia will get in over far better 2-loss teams. It's unfortunate.

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  3. Justin Goar 11 months ago

    i like ryan's posts b/c he and I are at about the same pessimism level for our teams.

    schedule is a huge part agreed.

    but i think we need to classify the material when picking a preseason top 25. for example the sec coaches at media day voted fla and au as winners of their divisions based mostly on scheduling. however all these polls that have UGA #1 are usually just putting them #1 on how strong they think their team is and not their predicted finishes.

    i kind of agree that a preseason poll should have everything to do with how strong a team is or how they are viewed and not their schedule. if their schedule is that strong then their record will reflect it at the end of the season.

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  4. Give 'em Hell Devils 11 months ago

    interesting, you having us losing both our games in conference. SC and Cal? I think playing Cal so early helps us as they are going to be having a lot of new talent as well. If we can beat uga i think we have a good shot to beat cal. overall I agree 10-2 is a good year for us, and beating uga would be great for our program.

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    • Jordan Schwartz 11 months ago

      Yeah, I'm going to give you a big home win over Georgia because they're traveling cross country to unfamiliar territory. Either way, I say ASU loses two of the three tough games on their schedule (USC, Cal and Georgia).

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  5. James Fatari 11 months ago

    great read but you got it wrong on the Big 12 championship and the National Championship....remember last season's NC that never came to be? Missouri & WVU, if only they'd won their last games those two teams would have played for the 2008 NC, however, those teams get one more chance this season to play for the NC and even though i respect your predictions, Mizzou vs WVU is my 2009 NC game

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  6. Paul Peszko 11 months ago

    Trying to get a playoff in CFB is like trying to squeeze water from a stone. So, the next best thing would be to work on the 12-game schedule. Discount or disallow games with Division 2 opponents for one thing. Of course, a team can't control the strength of their Division 1 opponents nor can a team account for injuries. Last year, Oregon should have won have won the Pac-10 except for Dixon going down. Of course, the same could be said for USC when they played Oregon. Dixon was healthy but Booty was injured.

    So, what's the answer?

    Well, the system is based on points more or less without any real reviews of the games or the rosters. It's simply all of these coaches asking their grad assistant to vote on the top 20 for them. They don't watch the games. They don't review the tapes. They don't look at injury reports. They merely vote or have their grad assistants vote.

    So, one solution is to eliminate the coaches poll. What do we replace it with? Well, I'll be posting an article on that in the next couple of days. I'm sure you'll let me know what you think.

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  7. Morgan Ensberg 11 months ago

    Bring me back to the Yankees

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  8. nobody nobody 11 months ago

    has anyone mentioned that the writer of this article is wrong when he states that Florida plays Georgia on the road? UF-UGA is always at a neutral site. The largest outdoor cocktail party game is played in Jacksonville, FL which is actually a lot closer to Gainesville than it is Athens.

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  9. Reggie Garcia 11 months ago

    Great article, liked the breakdown and analysis. I think USC will win it all, they still are the juggernaut powerhouse they were before, injuries got them bad last year, I think they will "shock" everyone. 5 stars

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