Why USC Will Win the National Championship

In this college football season preview, I'm not going to talk about quarterbacks and defensive backs, veteran seniors and breakout freshman, or coaches and coordinators.

Why not?

Because as long as the Bowl Championship Series is in place, none of that will matter as much as one thing: your schedule.

The computer doesn't care a whole lot about who you play or the strength of your conference, it cares mostly about how many losses you have and when they happen.

Before the 2007 season, I predicted LSU would win the National Championship.  Not because Les Miles was a great coach or because Matt Flynn was a good field general, but because they played most of their rivals at home.

I figured they'd be able to beat Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Florida, and Auburn because all of those games took place in Baton Rouge.  Their only tough road games were at Kentucky and Alabama and so I decided they had the best chance of being in the top two of the final BCS rankings. 

Because you can't win the title game unless you're in it.

The Tigers wound up losing in triple overtime at Kentucky and then again in three extra sessions at home against Arkansas, but because their schedule was favorable enough, they were still able to win 11 games and the SEC Championship. This put them in the BCS Championship game against an overmatched Ohio State team that they were able to beat by two touchdowns.

USC was ranked ahead of LSU in the preseason polls last year, but I didn't pick them to go all the way because I figured their difficult schedule wouldn't allow them to finish the year in the BCS's top two. 

The Trojans had to play at Nebraska, Oregon, Cal, and Arizona State. While their incredible upset loss to Stanford is what kept them out of the title game, they probably would have been able to overcome that one loss had it not been that they also fell to the Ducks.

But I believe this year will be different for Southern California, and it's all about the schedule.

Below, I break down the schedules for each of the teams ranked in the Top 25 of the preseason Coaches’ Poll, explaining why I think each school will or will not make it to the BCS title game.

1 - Georgia (Predicted Regular Season Record: 10-2, 7-1)

The Bulldogs are the top ranked team in the land right now, but that might not last for too long due to their hellacious schedule.  Georgia plays five teams ranked in the Top 25 (at ASU, Tennessee, at LSU, Florida, at Auburn) and another four games against schools that are just outside the rankings (at South Carolina, Alabama, at Kentucky, Georgia Tech). 

I've got to figure the Dogs will lose two of those difficult five road games, which should leave them on the outside looking in. Even if they can beat out Tennessee and Florida to earn a spot in the SEC Championship game.

2 - USC (12-0, 9-0)

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