Purdue Football 2010 Preview/Predictions

Two words describe the fall season for me: college football. The atmosphere each and every Saturday in any college football stadium cannot be matched by any other sport. It’s a unique sport because each week is essentially a playoff game. One loss and the chances of competing for a national title are in jeopardy. Two losses and the team has no chance of reaching the title game. College football season is right around the corner (less than a month!), so let’s take a look at how Purdue will fare in 2010.

Purdue is coming off a 5-7 season, going 4-4 in the Big Ten conference. The highlight of last season was the upset of #7 Ohio State. Entering this season Purdue has a few question marks, mainly in the secondary and offensive line. The entire secondary has to be replaced with inexperienced players who have never started a game for Purdue. Besides that, the front seven, led by senior defensive end Ryan Kerrigan and sixth-year senior linebacker Jason Werner, should improve from last season. As for the offense, the one player every Purdue fan is waiting to see is quarterback Robert Marve. He had surgery for a torn ACL last season, but he wouldn’t have been able to play anyway due to NCAA rules regarding transferring players. Marve has the talent to be included with other Purdue great quarterbacks (Brees, Dawson, Griese, Orton, etc.), but he hasn’t played in a real game in quite some time. As for the running back position, the starter Ralph Bolden also had a leg injury during spring practice and could miss the entire season. His replacement is sophomore Al-Terek McBurse, who was the highlight of Purdue’s 2009 recruiting class. At wide receiver, Keith Smith is the best wide receiver in the Big Ten, but after him a handful of new guys come in to take over the other slots, including 4-star freshman O.J. Ross.

Another story that could impact the football team is the return of Justin Siller. Siller was originally recruited to Purdue as a running back, but changed over to quarterback during the 2008 season. He led Purdue to the thrilling victory over Michigan that season, and played decent in a couple of other games. In 2009 he was kicked out of school, but returned after straightening out his grades. Siller will be playing wide receiver this year, but don’t be surprised to see him line up at quarterback in the Wildcat formation. The schedule is favorable since Purdue doesn’t play Iowa or Penn State in Big Ten play (two of the top four teams in the conference),  and the non-conference schedule features three home games against teams even Indiana could beat.

Game-by-Game Predictions:

@ Notre Dame---The Irish are coming off a disappointing season (no surprise there) going 6-6 after having one of the nations easiest schedules last season. They had to come from behind in all of their wins thanks to their poor defense. The Irish fired head coach Charlie Weis and replaced him with the new savior, Brian Kelly. Kelly is one of the most arrogant coaches in football, so he’ll fit right in with Notre Dame’s culture. The Irish lost top receiver Golden Tate and the greatest quarterback to play for the Golden Domers since Joe Montana played (according to delusional Irish fans), Jimmy Clausen. This will be the first game of the 2010 season for both teams. Expect this to be much like last season’s game where the game comes down to the last possession. At the end of the day though, Notre Dame still has a very weak defense, one that won’t improve because Kelly doesn’t know a single thing about defense, and I expect Robert Marve and the Purdue offense to score enough to win. Purdue 27, Notre Dame 21

Western Illinois---Western Illinois is a 1-AA school, and shouldn’t even be on the schedule. I just pray that Purdue gets through the game without any injuries. Purdue 58, Western Illinois 10

Ball State---Ball State is coming off a 2-10 season. This should just be a tune up game in anticipation for the Big Ten season for the Boilermakers. Work on some things that didn’t go so well in the first couple games. Purdue 45,Ball State 17

Toledo---A rematch of last season’s opener in Ross-Ade Stadium, which the Boilermakers won 52-31. Toledo will have a new quarterback, thankfully, this season, as their quarterback from last season threw for 423 yards and three touchdowns against us. But they do return four starters on the offensive line which was one of the best in the MAC last season. On the defensive side of the ball, Toledo was terrible last season and shows no signs of getting better anytime soon. Assuming Purdue doesn’t have a letdown like last year’s Northern Illinois game, expect a Boilermaker victory. Purdue 42, Toledo 24

@ Northwestern---This is the start of Big Ten Conference play, and also the start of three of four games Purdue plays on the road. October has never been kind to Purdue ever since “The Fumble” on October 16, 2004 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jc5wY1i-N0Q), going 5-19 in the month of October since that day, which was ranked as Purdue’s most painful loss in program history (http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/14203/the-big-tens-most-painful-losses). Northwestern is Purdue’s Big Ten opener this season, and the Wildcats are coming off their best season since the Rose Bowl days back in the mid-90’s. This should be a really close game because both teams have about the same talent on both sides of the ball. Both teams are looking at this game as a must win if they want to play in a New Year’s Day bowl game. Northwestern has won the past two meetings, but history is on Purdue’s side winning forty-nine of the seventy-six meetings between the teams. Northwestern has to replace all of their skill position players on offense, and defensively the secondary is a huge concern. Even though it’s a night game (Purdue historically hasn’t played well in night games) and the game is in Evanston, I just have a feeling about this year’s Purdue team and see them winning close games instead of losing them, like in years past. Expect a great, high-scoring, close football game to open up the Big Ten season. Purdue 41, Northwestern 35

Minnesota---This year’s Homecoming opponent is the Minnesota Golden Gophers. They are coming off a 6-7 season going 3-5 in Big Ten play. One of those wins in conference play came against Purdue, winning 35-20 in Minneapolis. Minnesota returns a great quarterback in Adam Weber, but lost their top receiver to the NFL Draft, Eric Decker. This team struggled late in the season, losing five of their last seven games, and one of those wins was to a 1-AA opponent. The Gophers lack talent on paper, and I expect Purdue to take care of business for this year’s Homecoming Game. Besides, the Purdue team is honoring the 2000 Rose Bowl team by wearing the throwback uniforms for this game, so there is no chance we lose this game. Purdue 31, Minnesota 17

@ Ohio State---As stated earlier, Purdue’s high point last season was upsetting Ohio State at Ross-Ade Stadium, which Ohio State fans are calling “Purdue Harbor”. The students rushed the field for the first time since the Rose Bowl season in 2000. For some reason, Purdue has played Ohio State close over the past decade. In 2000, “Holy Toledo” happened (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UupYdHaIoik) and Purdue won, sending the Boilermakers to the Rose Bowl for the first time since the 60’s. In 2002 “Holy Buckeye” happened (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRyh6Esnh5U) and Ohio State went on to win the National Championship. In 2003, Purdue outplayed Ohio State the entire game, but Kyle Orton fumbled at the 1 yard line to give Ohio State a touchdown, and force overtime and the Buckeyes won in overtime. In 2004, Orton redeemed himself with a last minute drive off the bench due to an injury, to lead Purdue to a win (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uR4SzVFOaxA). The teams didn’t play in 2005 or 2006. In 2007, both teams entered the game at 5-0 and ranked. It was a night game at Ross-Ade, but Purdue fell short (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05mkC4D0ZeI). In 2008, the only touchdown was a blocked punt and Ohio State won 16-3. And last season…(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aS6zP2mR__A). So the point is, even though Ohio State is the best Big Ten team year in and year out, Purdue manages to keep the games close, but I’m not sure why. This season, Ohio State is one of the favorites, if not the favorite, to win the National Championship. Everything rides on quarterback Terrelle Pryor’s play. If he plays like he did in the Purdue game last season (17 of 31, 1 TD, 2 INT, 2 fumbles) then it’ll be a long season for the Buckeyes. If he plays like he did in the Rose Bowl (23 of 27, 2 TD, 1 INT, 0 fumbles) then the Buckeyes should go undefeated. Ohio State has a lot of talent, obviously, on both sides of the ball, and a great head coach in Jim Tressel. When you add that all up, plus last season’s upset fresh in their minds, I see Ohio State jumping to an early lead and coasting from there. Ohio State 27, Purdue 13

@ Illinois---The Illini had a miracle run a couple years ago, making a trip to the Rose Bowl. That has been the highlight of the Ron Zook era, and if he doesn’t turn things around this season, he won’t be back for the 2011 campaign. Illinois has lost most of their players from that 2008 Rose Bowl team, and appear to be battling with Indiana for the basement of the Big Ten. This game is one of our three trophy rivalry games(Indiana and Notre Dame being the other two), and the winning team gets The Purdue Cannon. Purdue leads the “Cannon” portion of the series 30-26, with Illinois leading the all-time series 41-38. Offensively the Illini have a great running back in Mikel Leshoure. He ran for 122 yards against Purdue last season. On defense, Illinois returns one of the worst units in the Big Ten from last season, giving up over 30 points per game.  At this point in the season, Purdue’s offense should be rolling, and the Boilermakers should score enough points to win this rivalry game. Purdue 28, Illinois 14

Wisconsin---This game is the type of game no coach wants to hear…a ”trap game”; unless of course you are the coach for the opposing team. This year’s meeting between Purdue and Wisconsin is a trap game for the Badgers. A trap game is a game that should be won, but carry challenging factors such as location, timing, and the type of opponent on the other sideline. Let’s start with the first: location. This game is a road game for Wisconsin, and road conference games are always tough (even though Wisconsin has won the last two meetings in Ross-Ade Stadium against Purdue). Secondly, the timing of this game couldn’t be worse for the Badgers. They will be coming off an emotion-charged stretch that includes Michigan State, Ohio State and Iowa, as well as rival Minnesota in the battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe. And lastly, Wisconsin embarrassed Purdue last year in Madison 37-0, so the Boilermakers will have that fresh in their minds. But with all that being said, Wisconsin has had our number in recent years, and they are one of the four best teams in the conference. Besides Ohio State, Wisconsin has been the most consistent team in the Big Ten over the past decade.  Wisconsin 31, Purdue 14

Michigan---The past two meetings between these schools were electric. In 2008, Purdue used a last minute hook-and-ladder play to win 48-42, and last season the Boilermakers won in The Big House for the first time since 1966, winning 38-36. This season the pressure is on Wolverines’ head coach Rich Rodriguez to win and get Michigan back to a New Year’s Day bowl game. This game is essentially a toss-up and no doubt points will be scored in this game…lots of them. The key in this game will be special teams. Purdue has a great kicker in Carson Wiggs (made multiple field goals from over 50 yards last season, including the longest in the nation last season, from 59 yards). In 2008, when Joe Tiller was coach at Purdue, he called a fake punt late in the game that worked brilliantly and turned the game around into Purdue’s favor. Last season, head coach Danny Hope called an onside kick in the second half and the very next play Purdue scored a touchdown, giving the Boilers a boost of confidence en route to the victory. Given that Purdue has taken risks on special teams in the past couple of seasons and succeeded, and that this game will be a road game for Michigan, I see Purdue outscoring the Wolverines in an exciting game. Purdue 41, Michigan 31

@ Michigan State---The Spartans bring back a lot of talent from last year’s team that went 6-7. At quarterback, Kirk Cousins returns after throwing for 2,700 yards and 19 touchdowns, last season. On defense, linebacker Greg Jones is as good as they come. Jones had nine sacks and 14 tackles for a loss last season and was named the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year. The only concern for this team is in the secondary (like most teams this season). They will have young safeties, which could leave them vulnerable to big plays downfield. But I believe their offense will have enough weapons with Cousins and the two headed monster at running back (Edwin Baker and Larry Caper…combined for 1,000 yards rushing and 7 touchdowns). So given that, and the fact that Purdue hasn’t beaten Michigan State since 2006, I see the Spartans winning this one. Michigan State 28, Purdue 17

Indiana---Do I really need to preview this game? It’s the Bucket game. It’s Senior Day. It’s our little sister to the south coming into our house trying to do something they haven’t done since 1996: win a football game in Ross-Ade Stadium. There is a 0% chance Purdue loses this game. Don’t worry Indiana fans, basketball season will be underway at this point… Purdue 41, Indiana 24

Looking at the game-by-game breakdown, I have Purdue going 9-3 and 5-3 in the Big Ten. This is the best I can see them doing, with the worst being 6-6 and 3-5 in the Big Ten. In terms of which games are definite wins, toss-ups and definite losses, the chart looks like this:

Definite Wins (6): Western Illinois, Ball State, Toledo, Minnesota, @Illinois, Indiana

Toss-Ups (3): @Notre Dame, @Northwestern, Michigan

Definite Losses (3): @Ohio State, Wisconsin, @Michigan State

Like I said in the Northwestern preview, I just have a feeling about this year’s team that I haven’t had in awhile. They have the talent on offense to play with any team in the nation, and the front seven on defense is loaded with star power. It will be a lot of fun to see how this season will play out, and September 4^th can’t arrive soon enough.

Boiler Up!