Big Ten, Big 10, and Pac-10 All To Play Nine Conference Games After 2010

In case you are wondering, the "Big Ten" is that 12-team conference in the Midwest, while the Big 12 will soon be the 10-team league in the nation's Central Time Zone.

The decision of the Big 12 to play nine conference games in 2011, after the departure of Nebraska and Colorado, was made out of necessity in an emergency situation. The decision of the Big Ten to play 9 conference games was a long time coming.

Big Ten

In fact, the Big Ten tried a nine-game, full round-robin schedule back before the "Great Demographic Shift" became part of the conference's concern. By the 70s the conference dropped to eight games to exert a larger presence in the American West and South.

After the expansion to a 12-game schedule in 2006, the majority of teams wanted to return to that nine-game conference schedule.

However, the addition of Penn State in 1990 as the conference's 11th member made having an odd-number of teams play an odd-number of games mathematically impossible.

Now, with the addition of Nebraska, the nine-game schedule is back in play . With the concern for how divisions will tear the unified league in twine (two), an additional conference game will allow teams to continue playing against each other at least four times every two years.

Pacific-10 (or new Pac-12)

With the expansion of the regular season in 2006, the Pac-10 moved to a full round-robin. And now, with the expansion to 12 members, the conference is tempted to follow the model of other 12-team conferences and reduce their schedule to eight conference games plus a conference championship game for two schools.

But, as with the Big Ten, this will mean a loss of built-up rivalries. One only has to look to the ACC, to see how expanding the conference membership without expanding the conference schedule can be detrimental to overall conference strength.

Even the SEC expanded from a seven-game schedule to an eight-game schedule to accommodate the addition of Arkansas and South Carolina.

The Pac-10 certainly will not reduce rivalries through both new admissions (Colorado and Utah) AND dropping a conference game. Expect the league to keep nine games.

The Big 10 (or perhaps the league will keep the name "Big 12")

The Big 12 is not expanding, nor does it have precedence of playing nine conference games. So why will they add a game?

The first reason is that with 10 members it makes sense. This is the same common sense approach the Pac-10 took in 2006. Playing all but one conference member creates unbalanced schedules which can wreak havoc on standings and through revenue distribution.

Secondly, the Big 12 needs the additional conference game to keep a high concentration of revenue from their next TV contract, which would give Texas revenue competitive with teams in the SEC or Big Ten. More games equals more money.

The Nine-Game Schedule's Impact on the Standings

What are the chances that the second-best team in a conference is in the same division as the best team? A little less than half, statistically speaking.

But, if the third-best team is playing in a weaker division, their conference standing will exceed that of the second-place team. Thus, mathematically the two division winners are more often two of the teams with the best conference record.

Adding a conference game, to be played against the other division, removes much of this bias. In the Pac-12 and Big Ten we will see many more occasions when the two teams with the best conference record are stuck in the same division unable for a conference championship rematch.

Additionally, as teams are playing a full two-thirds of the other division's members, the chance of a rematch in the conference final increases dramatically. Most likely, however, this will have been an early season matchup; which is why Michigan and Ohio State will continue play in the same division.

The Nine-Game Schedule's Impact on National Scheduling

23 teams will play an additional conference game in 2011. This means 23 fewer games that the conferences will play against each other, the other BCS conferences, and against mid-majors.

This is not necessarily a negative outcome, as the 2006 expansion of the regular season introduced many more FBS vs. FCS games into the national football schedule.

A ninth conference game will counteract what has been seen as a devaluing of the regular season.

If the model proves successful, we might see another BCS conference, most likely the ACC implement a ninth game.

The game would be the long-awaited counter maneuver that should have come in 2006 to keep the conference nationally competitive.

The Nine-Game Schedule's Impact on the Bowls

Adding a conference game adds a guaranteed loss to half of the conference's members. And for most of these teams averaging above a .500 in OOC games, this means a decrease in overall record.

This change will come in tandem with a recent change in bowl selection procedures. Previously all 7-5 teams must be selected for a bowl before any 6-6 team (that did not already have a conference tie-in). Now any 6-6 team may be selected before any other team not tied to a bowl.

What this means is that a 6-6 UCLA may take the spot in a bowl before an 8-5 Idaho. More bowl spots will go to "Big Name" teams. Essentially, when combined with the ninth conference game, this will be a wash.

Pac-10 and Big Ten Divisions?

You won't find much speculation here on future division lineups. My only guesses are that all teams with end-of-the-year rivalries will be placed in the same division.

Oh, and Penn State and Nebraska will be placed in a division opposite Ohio State and Michigan. I know, I'm a risk-taker.

Overall, there are two ways schedule rotation could best work. The first way, and the one I expect both conference to take is to do a full rotation of all six extra-division teams (home-away-bye) every three years.

The second method, and one in which would best be employed if, say, the ACC went to nine-games, would be to have two permanent rivals in the opposite division while playing the other four teams twice on, twice off.

Having a single protected rivalry in the other division is a third option. Although the SEC and ACC effectively utilize this strategy with eight games; with nine, it makes for weird three-game series between teams. There is, however, nothing that mathematically precludes this option.

Conclusion

Of all the shake-up last month with conference realignment, really only one team moved up from the mid-majors to the AQ conferences. We lost an 11-team conference and gained a 12-team conference. Nothing very apocalyptic here.

The bigger change will be the scheduling. With more than half (by one-half team) of the BCS teams to be playing nine conference games, we will see a major shift in scheduling.

The ACC might add a conference game and we may see less comeuppance from the non-AQ teams as they have less and less chances to prove their mettle against BCS competition.

But, essentially it is a positive change, and one that reflects historical norms. We will see fewer FCS teams and we will see bowl games with higher-profile teams. Overall, this shift will be to the betterment of college football tradition.