Assuming the move is to super conferences, look for the Big XII and Big East to be the major losers.
The Big 10 would pick off MO and NE from the Big XII, along with Rutgers from the Big East. There would be probably be political pressure to accept Pitt and ISU. If ND decides to join, then the 16th team would likely be either Pitt or ISU.
Meanwhile the PAC 10 would take CO and Utah. To fill out to 16 there would be a struggle with the SEC over the plums TX and OU. Of course, to get TX and OU, politics would likely require the conference to take TA&M and OkSt. Both the SEC and PAC 10 would have room for all four. In this struggle my money is on the SEC.
1. The SEC would be more desperate. The SEC region has a much smaller population than either the PAC 10 or the Big 10. PAC 10 already has the second largest TV market locked up. What does the SEC do when it is no longer the dominant conference? It needs TX to give it two of the 4 largest states in the union to help offset lower population states such as AR, KY, LA, and MS.
2. The SEC has one of the most lucrative TV deals around, providing max exposure.
3. The SEC plays in the Eastern and Central time zones, which makes their games more attractive for daytime and prime time viewing.
4. Logistics favor the SEC.
a. The longest trips are to Florida and South Carolina, much closer than Washington.
b. The shortest trips to LSU and Ark are closer than to trips to AZ for everyone except maybe TX.
c. Most SEC stadiums are larger than most PAC 10 stadiums. Thus the visiting team's cut of the gate will be larger at SEC stadiums.
There is no advantage for the SEC to go east. Adding Ga Tech, Miami, Fl St, or Clemson would do little to increase the SEC's population base or national appeal.
Back to the PAC 10. Assuming they cannot get OU and/or TX, they may take Kan, Kan St., TCU and Houston. This would give them 4 teams in the central time zone for more TV exposure as well as get them into the Houston and Dallas/Ft. Worth TV markets.
The ACC may take CT and/or Syracuse from the Big East to get into the NY market. Depending on if they take one or both, they could finish the Big East off by taking all or two of Louisville, Cincinnati, and West Virginia.
My super conferences would look something like this:
Boston College West Virginia
Maryland Virginia Tech
Miami Florida State
North Carolina Wake Forest
NC St Duke
EAST : WEST:
Pa St Wisconsin
Oh St Northwestern
Mich St Io St
So Car Oklahoma
Georgia Ok St
Alabama TX A&M
Vanderbilt Ole Miss
Kentucky Miss St
Wash St KS St
Ore St Houston
Stanford AZ St
Colorado So Cal
I'm sure there are other lineups just as practical. This is just how I see as the most logical arrangements. Of course, Notre Dame joining the Big 10 changes everything, but I just don't think the Big 10 is willing to come up with the money it would take to get the Irish to give up their own network and complete control of their schedule.
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