This proposal assumes the Big 10 expands as I posted previously (the 16 team version with Maryland and Notre Dame included).
New Big 10 East: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Connecticut, Maryland
New Big 10 West: Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Notre Dame
Now the SEC would probably consider expansion to keep up. Texas would be their first choice, but I feel that especially if no Big 12 teams leave for the Big 10, Texas would not want to leave the Big 12. I believe the revenue in the Big 12 is not distributed evenly and Texas gets more than its share than most if not all of the other schools in the conference. I'm pretty sure that the Big 10 and SEC distribute evenly to all members. I'm not sure about the Pac-10. Now granted the Big 10 and SEC may be far, far enough ahead of the Big 12 but if the next Big 12 TV contract comes close to the Big 10 and SEC, Texas will most likely come out ahead staying in the Big 12 (not to mention the increased travel requirements and costs of a move to the Big 10 or SEC and definitely the Pac-10). This is by the way the reason the other schools are interested in inviting other Big 12 schools which get a smaller share. The only way Texas leaves is if the next TV contract(s) are so far behind the other conferences (I would expect the Big 12 numbers to at least go up once the next contract(s) are renegotiated.) Even if one or two schools leave, they can be replaced without too much loss of interest.
So I'm going to say the SEC targets the Florida schools (Florida State and Miami) as well as Louisville and Memphis (schools that would leave their current conferences in a second). Obviously, both Louisville and Memphis would be more appealing from a basketball standpoint than a football one. I don't think any of the other ACC schools would be too appealing to the SEC in any standpoint.
New SEC East: Kentucky, Louisville, Florida, Florida State, Miami, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee
New SEC West: Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Memphis
The ACC so far loses both Florida schools to the SEC and Maryland to the Big 10. They've raided the Big East before and with Syracuse, Pitt, and UConn already heading to the Big 10 and Louisville going to the SEC, the ACC will easily add the remaining four teams: West Virginia, Rutgers, South Florida, and Cincinnati. To reach the magic 16, they need three more teams. One of them would probably be Central Florida. It gives the ACC a second team in Florida to replace Florida and Florida State and give South Florida a rival.
As for No. 15, we all know the Big East thinks Temple is a community college, but maybe the ACC realizes that having a conference team in Philadelphia isn't a bad thing. In addition, maybe Duke and North Carolina push for Fran Dunphy's team as a conference rival. Not to mention Temple did play in a bowl last year in case you didn't hear. Finally for No. 16, should Villanova want to move to FBS, they would be a natural rival to Temple and if the ACC basketball voices like to see Temple in the ACC, they would love Jay Wright's Wildcats. Should Villanova not be ready to make the move, East Carolina would probably be next on the list, followed by Marshall.
Out: Florida State and Miami to SEC, Maryland to Big 10
In: West Virginia, Rutgers, South Florida, Cincinnati, and Villanova? from the Big East, Temple from the MAC/A-10, Central Florida from Conf. USA:
New ACC North : Boston College, Rutgers, Temple, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Cincinnati
New ACC South: North Carolina, Duke, NC State, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech,South Florida, Central Florida
Should East Carolina and/or Marshall replace Villanova and/or Temple, they would be in the ACC North. I'm sure the Pirates would rather be in the South, but if the ACC said North or nothing, I'm sure they would gladly go for the ACC North.
Big East (What's Left of It)
Pretty much Big East football is no more. So they become mostly a football less or FCS football team conference. They for the most part merge with the Atlantic 10. Now, taking out the nine football schools (including Notre Dame) and Villanova leaves the Big East with six schools. They can then pick 10 of the remaining 13 A-10 schools (minus Temple).
Two divisional proposals:
East : Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, St. Joe's, LaSalle, Georgetown
West: Marquette, St. Louis, DePaul, Dayton, Xavier, Charlotte, Richmond, George Washington
Keeps all original Big East schools together and all the Midwest schools together but divides Georgetown and George Washington.
North: Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, Marquette, St. Louis, DePaul
South: St. Joe's, LaSalle, Georgetown, George Washington, Richmond, Charlotte, Dayton, Xavier
St. Louis should be the South but they get moved to the North to be with the other Central Time Zone schools.
In any case, I think it's pretty clear which three teams do not get the Big East invite: Duquesne, Fordham, St. Bonaventure.
With all the expansion East of the river, the Pac-10 would have almost no choice but to expand. I don't think they can get Texas (see SEC earlier). I think they can get Colorado and Utah for sure (unless Utah would insist BYU come along for the ride) to go to 12. Obviously, I know about the Big 10 and their academic concerns. The Pac-10 of course has concerns as well. But can they afford to stick with 10 or even 12 when at least three big conferences expand beyond 12?
So assuming the Pac-10 goes beyond 12 to get 16 teams and taking academics out of the equation (is there a Western team out there other than Utah or Colorado that fits the Pac-10 academically?), I will go with the other considerations - geography, TV, demographics, athletics.
The new teams (feel free to argue others)
13. BYU - Make Utah happy.
14. UNLV - Las Vegas is one of the fastest growing cities in the U.S. and Nevada one of the fastest growing states.
15. Boise State - Football team speaks for itself.
16. New Mexico - Only neighboring state not included.
This gives the Pac-10 coverage in California, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Idaho. The only schools primarily in the Mountain and Pacific zones not covered are Wyoming and Montana. Other schools probably under consideration are Hawaii (if the Pac-10 can get over the travel nightmares), Colorado State (companion to Colorado or replacement in case Colorado prefers to stay in the Big 12), Utah State (alternate to BYU).
I'll give you two proposals:
Pacific: UCLA, USC, California Berkeley, Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
Mountain: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah, BYU, New Mexico, Boise State, UNLV
I just think saying Pac-10 East is a paradox.
The only losers here I would say are the Arizona schools. The original Pac-Eight are altogether and all the new schools other than Colorado would be happy to just have in a BCS conference (assuming the MWC doesn't get one).
South: UCLA, USC, Cal Berkeley, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona State, New Mexico, UNLV
North: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, Colorado, Utah, BYU, Boise State
This would be a nicer balance of the current Pac-10 and the new members.
Unlike other proposals and speculation, the Big 12 would only lose Colorado to the Pac-10 and the other schools may not miss the travel much. The problem is assuming the Pac 10 gets most of the good schools of the MWC/WAC, the Big 12 pretty much becomes a regional conference but then again they do have Texas and Oklahoma.
Additions: TCU, SMU, Houston, Rice, Tulsa
New Big 12 South (Old SWC): Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, TCU, Houston, Rice, Baylor, SMU
New Big 12 North (Old Big 8): Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Tulsa (replaces Colorado)
I don't think this will be enough for a BCS automatic, but for sure the MWC and WAC have to merge and probably take the non Texas, non Eastern Conf USA teams simply for survival purposes. They can call it what they want.
East: Southern Miss, UAB, Tulane, Louisiana Tech, UTEP, New Mexico State, Colorado State, Air Force
West: Hawaii, Nevada, Utah State, San Diego State, Idaho, Fresno State, San Jose State, Wyoming
I'm sure Louisiana Tech would be much happier being with UAB, Tulane, and Southern Miss than where they are now even if they don't have an automatic bid.
So here's another proposal as to how the dominoes may fall.
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