The Miami Hurricanes are 3-1 over the last four meetings with the Virginia Cavaliers, but the Cavs are 5-2 against the spread over the last seven, keeping almost every game close as underdogs.
Can Miami, coming off a huge win last week, avoid a letdown and cover a big number against Virginia on Saturday afternoon at Hard Rock Stadium?
College football point spread: The Hurricanes opened as 17-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 41.6-16.8 Hurricanes (College football picks on every game)
Why the Virginia Cavaliers can cover the spread
The Cavaliers began this season well enough, winning five of their first six games, but they are now looking to bounce back after taking a 38-21 loss at Louisville last week.
The Cavs led the Cardinals 7-0 early and only trailed 17-14 deep into the third quarter. But they gave up touchdowns on three straight Louisville possessions and couldn't recover in time to cover as 14-point dogs.
Two weeks ago, Virginia beat Georgia Tech 40-36, and that was a Yellow Jackets team that nearly beat Miami earlier this season. And at 6-4 overall, the Cavaliers are bowl eligible for the first time since 2011.
Why the Miami Hurricanes can cover the spread
The Hurricanes ran their FBS-best winning streak to 14 games in impressive fashion last week, throttling Notre Dame 41-8.
Miami scored twice late in the first quarter to take a 14-0 lead, pushed that to 27-0 by halftime and 34-0 before allowing the Irish to hit the board on its way to an easy victory as a three-point underdog.
On the night, the Hurricanes outgained Notre Dame 374-261, outrushed the Irish 237-109, held a 34-26 advantage in time of possession and won the turnover battle 4-0. In fact, Miami's defense has scooped up 16 opposition turnovers over just the last four games.
Following a string of close victories, the Hurricanes have now won their last two games—against two pretty good teams—by a total score of 69-18.
At 6-0 in conference play, Miami has already clinched its first berth in the ACC championship game. And at 9-0 overall, the Hurricanes are wonderfully positioned in the battle for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Miami is coming off its two best performances of this season, but Virginia is struggling through the second half of this season.
However, a letdown following last week's big win remains a real possibility for the Hurricanes. Smart money here takes the points with the Cavaliers.
College football betting trends
The total has gone over in four of Virginia's last five games on the road against Miami.
The visiting team is 5-1 ATS in its last six games in this matchup.
Miami is 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games against its conference.
All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.