Michigan Wolverines vs. Wisconsin Badgers Odds, Analysis, Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 13, 2017

CHAMPAIGN, IL - OCTOBER 28: Alex Hornibrook #12 of the Wisconsin Badgers scrambles out of the pocked during the game against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium on October 28, 2017 in Champaign, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
Michael Hickey/Getty Images

The Michigan Wolverines lead the all-time series with the Wisconsin Badgers by a lopsided margin of 49-14, but UW is trying to chip away, winning four of the last seven meetings outright and going 8-1-1 against the spread over the last 10. Wisconsin shoots to stay undefeated when it hosts Michigan on Saturday afternoon at Camp Randall.

      

College football point spread: The Badgers opened as 8.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 34.7-25.3 Badgers (College football picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

      

Why the Michigan Wolverines can cover the spread

The Wolverines carry a three-game winning streak into this week, following their 35-10 victory at Maryland last week. Michigan led 7-0 after one quarter and 28-0 at the half, on its way to the win and the cover as a 14-point favorite.

For the game, the Wolverines actually got outgained by the Terrapins 340-305, but two-thirds of the yardage Michigan gave up came in garbage time. And while replacement quarterback Brandon Peters, making his second career start, only completed nine passes, they went for 145 yards and two touchdowns, without an interception.

Since the loss to Penn State four weeks ago, the Wolverines have won their last three games by an average score of 34-11.

At 5-2 in conference play, Michigan is in a tough spot in the East Division because it doesn't own the tiebreaker against Michigan State or Penn State. But it's not dead yet.

      

Why the Wisconsin Badgers can cover the spread

The Badgers reached 10-0 on the season last week with a 38-14 victory over Iowa. Wisconsin spotted the Hawkeyes the first seven points of the game on a pick-six in the first quarter and later let Iowa get within three points at 17-14 on another interception return for a score. But the Badgers then finished with a 21-0 run to secure the win and the cover as 12-point favorites.

On the day, Wisconsin racked up 247 yards on the ground, held the Hawkeyes to just 66 total yards and won time of possession by a 38-22 margin. The Badgers have still outgained and outrushed every opponent this season.

The victory clinched a spot in the Big Ten championship game for Wisconsin. But the Badgers want to stay perfect because they also remain in the running for a spot in the College Football Playoff.

      

Smart pick

Michigan is 2-0 ATS the last two weeks, playing a blip under the radar following that loss to Penn State. Meanwhile Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook has thrown at least one interception seven games in a row, three times throwing two or more. One of these days, that's going to bite the Badgers. Smart money here takes the Wolverines and the points.

      

College football betting trends

Michigan is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games against Wisconsin.

The total has gone over in four of Michigan's last five games against Wisconsin.

Wisconsin is 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games in November.

      

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.