TCU Horned Frogs vs. Iowa State Cyclones Odds, Betting Pick

Since becoming Big 12 rivals the TCU Horned Frogs are 4-1 against the Iowa State Cyclones, winning the last four meetings in a row. But ISU is 3-2 against the spread over that span, pulling off one upset, covering twice as an underdog. In a big game in the Big 12 Iowa State hosts TCU on Saturday afternoon.

College football point spread: The Horned Frogs opened as seven-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 35.8-30.4 Horned Frogs (College football picks on every game)

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Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread

The Frogs reached 7-0 on the season last week with a 43-0 blanking of Kansas. TCU took a 7-0 lead seven minutes into the game and slowly pulled away from there, against an obviously inferior Jayhawks outfit. And Frogs financial backers probably hopped with delight when KaVontae Turpin pulled off a crazy 90-yard punt return for a touchdown with seven minutes left, creating a cover of a 37-point spread.

On the evening TCU outgained Kansas by the ridiculous margin of 475-21, running the ball for 191 yards while holding the Jayhawks to minus-25 yards rushing.

The Frogs have now outrushed each of their seven opponents this season by a per-game average of 198-81. They're also 3-0 both SU and ATS on the road this year, with wins at Arkansas, Oklahoma State and Kansas State.

Why the Iowa State Cyclones can cover the spread

The Cyclones are one of the best bets in college football so far this season, going 6-1 ATS. They're also 3-0 both SU and ATS over their last three games, following their 31-13 victory/cover at Texas Tech last week.

ISU, as a seven-point dog, spotted the Red Raiders an early touchdown, then scored the game's next 24 points to take control. The Cyclones later allowed Tech to get within 24-13 but secured the upset on linebacker Marcel Spears' 61-yard pick-six midway through the fourth quarter.

On the day Iowa State outgained the Raiders 400-336, outrushed them 208-129 and won the turnover battle 3-1. Coming into that game Texas Tech was averaging 543 yards of offense per game.

Three weeks ago the Cyclones pulled that shocker at Oklahoma, and they've since shown some character with two more solid performances. Do they have another on tap for Saturday?

Smart pick

Iowa State is ranked for the first time in over a decade, but that almost sounds like the kiss of death. Ultimately, TCU is the better team in this matchup, playing on the road, where the spread is more amenable. Smart money favors the Frogs.

College football betting trends

The total has gone under in TCU's last four games against Iowa State.

The total has gone under in four of Iowa State's last five games.

Iowa State is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.