West Virginia Mountaineers vs. TCU Horned Frogs Odds, Football Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistOctober 2, 2017

LAWRENCE, KS - SEPTEMBER 23: Will Grier #7 of the West Virginia Mountaineers hands the ball of to Martell Pettaway #32 against the Kansas Jayhawks at Memorial Stadium on September 23, 2017 in Lawrence, Kansas. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)
Ed Zurga/Getty Images

Since joining the Big 12 Conference, the TCU Horned Frogs are 3-2 against the West Virginia Mountaineers. But West Virginia beat TCU last year, and it's 3-2 against the spread over those previous five meetings. The Mountaineers shoot for an upset when they challenge the Frogs Saturday afternoon in Fort Worth, Texas.

     

College football point spread: The Horned Frogs opened as 13-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 39.8-34.8 Horned Frogs (College football picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

      

Why the West Virginia Mountaineers can cover the spread

Since opening this season with that tough loss at Virginia Tech, the Mountaineers have won three straight games, including a 56-34 decision at Kansas two weeks ago. They then enjoyed last week off.

West Virginia spotted the Jayhawks an early field goal, then scored the game's next 28 points and were covering a 24-point spread. But the Mountaineers eased up and allowed Kansas to get within one score midway through the fourth quarter, eventually missing out on the cash.

On the day, West Virginia racked up 635 yards of offense, 288 on the ground and 347 through the air. Quarterback Will Grier threw for 347 yards, his fourth straight 300-yard effort to start this season, running backs Justin Crawford and Kennedy McKoy both hit the century mark rushing and wide receiver David Sills caught eight balls for 130 yards and two touchdowns.

The Mountaineers have now outgained each of their four opponents this season by an average of 145 yards.

      

Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread

The Frogs are off to a 4-0 start and creeping up the rankings following their 44-31 upset of Oklahoma State in Stillwater two weeks ago. They then also had last week off.

TCU trailed the Cowboys 7-6 through the first quarter but scored two straight touchdowns and never trailed again. The Frogs later led 37-17, let OSU get within 37-31 but then iced the game on Darius Anderson's 42-yard scoring run with just under three minutes to go.

On the day, TCU piled up 466 yards of offense, held a 39/21 time of possession advantage and won the turnover battle 4-1. Anderson ended up with 160 yards rushing and three touchdowns, while most of the yardage the Frogs defense gave up came in bend-don't-break mode protecting a big lead.

TCU has now outrushed each of its four foes this season by a per-game average of 232-95.

     

Smart pick

TCU owns the advantage on defense and should win this game, but this spread is certainly inflated thanks in large part to the Frogs' ringing victory at Oklahoma State a couple weeks ago. Smart money here takes the points on the college football point spreads.

         

College football betting trends

West Virginia is 3-1 ATS in its last four games against TCU.

The total has gone under in West Virginia's last three games against TCU.

TCU is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games against its conference.

      

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis or download the free odds tracker app.

Related

    Athletes Smoke Weed. These Are Their Stories.

    College Football logo
    College Football

    Athletes Smoke Weed. These Are Their Stories.

    Bleacherreport
    via Bleacherreport

    Harbaugh: Threatening Tweets a 'Serious Matter'

    College Football logo
    College Football

    Harbaugh: Threatening Tweets a 'Serious Matter'

    Mike Chiari
    via Bleacher Report

    OK State's Stadium Getting a HUGE Video Board

    College Football logo
    College Football

    OK State's Stadium Getting a HUGE Video Board

    Oklahoma State University
    via Oklahoma State University

    Bama QB Race Will Decide Hurts' Future

    College Football logo
    College Football

    Bama QB Race Will Decide Hurts' Future

    Matt Hayes
    via Bleacher Report