LSU Tigers vs. Florida Gators: Odds, Analysis, College Football Betting Pick

OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistOctober 2, 2017

Florida quarterback Feleipe Franks looks for a receiver against Vanderbilt during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Sept. 30, 2017, in Gainesville, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)
John Raoux/Associated Press

The Florida Gators beat the LSU Tigers in a grudge match last season, but LSU is 5-2 both straight up and against the spread over the last seven meetings in the series between the teams. Florida aims for two in a row over the Tigers on Saturday afternoon at the Swamp in Gainesville, Florida.

College football point spread: The Gators opened as four-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 32.9-18.6 Tigers (College football picks on every game).

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

       

Why the LSU Tigers can cover the spread

LSU will be looking for redemption this week, after losing at home to Troy last week 24-21. Playing without leading rusher Derrius Guice, the Tigers trailed the Trojans all day—and 24-7 midway through the fourth quarter. Ed Orgeron's men then scored twice to get within a field goal with two minutes left but could not extend a 49-game non-conference home winning streak.

On the night, LSU outgained Troy 428-363, but four Tigers turnovers basically cost them 14 points. They also came up empty on nine third-down conversion attempts and missed a short field goal. Louisiana State has outgained four of five opponents this season and outrushed three of five.

Why the Florida Gators can cover the spread

Since losing their season opener to Michigan the Gators are 3-0, following their 38-24 victory at Vanderbilt last week. Florida trailed the Commodores shortly before halftime, 17-14, but scored 24 of the game's final 31 points, the last seven on Malik Davis' 39-yard touchdown rumble with just under two minutes to go, and covered a nine-point spread.

For the day, the Gators outgained Vandy 467-310, outrushed the Commodores 218-46 and won time of possession by a 36/24 split. Freshman QB Feleipe Franks, playing in place of injured starter Luke Del Rio, connected on 10 of 14 passes for 185 yards while the running back combo of Davis and Lamical Perine produced 182 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns.

Two weeks ago, Florida rallied from 13 points down in the fourth quarter to beat Kentucky 28-27, and just prior to that, the Gators beat Tennessee 26-20 on a Hail Mary at the buzzer.

         

Smart pick

Florida is finding ways to win games, while LSU is finding ways to lose them. The Coach Orgeron era in Baton Rouge might be much shorter than anyone anticipated. The smart money here gets down on the Gators on the college football point spreads.

     

College football betting trends

LSU is 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four games against Florida.

The total has gone over in three of LSU's last four games on the road against Florida.

Florida is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games at home in October.

    

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.