The Team Every College Football Playoff Contender Should Be Most Afraid Of
Every path to the College Football Playoff includes a treacherous spot, but only a select group of teams successfully navigate the danger.
For the nation's most well-regarded teams in 2017, which opponent present that hazardous matchup?
Using Bovada futures tracked on OddsShark, we've spotlighted the 10 programs with the best chances to win the 2017-18 national championship. To appear in the honorable mentions section—which three schools did—a team needed to be listed at +3000 or better.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 11
Clemson (Odds: +2800): Those in the desert aren't fans of Clemson's chances to repeat as national champions. But a September slate that includes Auburn and Louisville isn't necessarily the make-or-break portion of the schedule; rather, a November home date with Florida State will likely determine the Tigers' level of success in 2017. The winner of that matchup should take the ACC Atlantic Division and be one victory away from the playoff.
Washington (Odds: +2800): Despite winning the Pac-12 last season, Washington has taken a back seat to 2017 favorite USC. The underdog card cannot be played under the conference championship game, though, and the Huskies must defeat Stanford—on a Friday night, on the road—to get there. They haven't won at Stanford since 2007.
Georgia (Odds: +2500): A popular breakout choice for 2017, Georgia returns 19 starters and a healthy majority of its production. For the Bulldogs to match the preseason expectations, they need to halt a three-game series losing streak to Florida. The November slate is unforgiving, but it won't matter unless Georgia topples the Gators.
Louisville: Clemson
2 of 11
Odds: +2200
Last year, a 63-20 beatdown of Florida State during the third week of the season established Louisville as a national threat. In 2017, the Cardinals welcome Clemson at the same time.
Will history repeat itself?
If not, Louisville won't be able to afford another loss for the remainder of the campaign. Considering the late-season stretch of underwhelming performances and the significant roster transition this year, it's unlikely the Cards will go undefeated after Clemson anyway.
Lamar Jackson and Co. must protect home field and dispatch the defending champions. Otherwise, a 9-3 year is on the horizon.
LSU: Alabama
3 of 11
Odds: +2200
There's a simple trend to determining LSU's success over the last 12 years. Did the Tigers beat Alabama during the regular season?
When yes, LSU has averaged 11.6 wins per season. When no, the number falls to 8.9—a respectable yet below-expectation mark. That Saturday in early November sure is important.
After putting together a terrific defensive game in 2016, the Tigers will be looking for more scoring success this year. They mustered just 125 total yards and lost 10-0.
LSU travels to Tuscaloosa on Nov. 4.
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Auburn: LSU
4 of 11
Odds: +2000
Why not Alabama? If Auburn is undefeated or has one loss heading into the regular-season finale, the Iron Bowl is house money.
Should Gus Malzahn's team come up short at Clemson early in the year, however, a loss to the Bayou Bengals would stop the Tigers from having anything more than pride on the line.
Auburn escaped the 2016 matchup—literally by one second—but will head to Death Valley this year. The program hasn't knocked off LSU on the road during this millennium.
Michigan: Ohio State
5 of 11
Odds: +1600
Jim Harbaugh has Michigan moving steadily in the right direction, but the program is still working on narrowing the Ohio State gap.
The Buckeyes have won 12 of the last 13 matchups, including what must've been a gut-wrenching double-overtime loss for the Wolverines last season. Three inopportune turnovers cost Michigan a chance at the Big Ten Championship Game and the CFP.
And now, the starting lineup is undergoing a serious facelift.
Even if Harbaugh guides Michigan through a tricky schedule, the season-ending showdown with Ohio State may expose a roster that is probably one year away from serious contention.
Oklahoma: Oklahoma State
6 of 11
Odds: +1400
Oklahoma's road to the College Football Playoff goes through Oklahoma State, and a detour might require a second trip.
Despite not having two divisions, the Big 12 has resurrected its conference championship game, which could be either a blessing or a curse for Oklahoma. On one hand, the Sooners may benefit from having one more contest against a ranked opponent. Conversely, they might be a playoff-caliber 11-1 team needing to avoid a crushing loss.
Mason Rudolph and the Cowboys have the firepower to dethrone their chief rivals Nov. 4—and/or in early December.
Penn State: Michigan
7 of 11
Odds: +1400
Penn State's surprise run to the Big Ten title has resulted in preseason hype for 2017. But the Nittany Lions need to solve Michigan.
Even though the Wolverines, as previously mentioned, are dealing with major changes, the defensive line has keyed the last two series victories. And with Rashan Gary, Maurice Hurst and Chase Winovich all returning, Penn State could struggle up front once again.
Unsurprisingly, the school has confirmed the Oct. 21 tilt will be the annual White Out game. James Franklin's crew might need a little magic from the 2016 upset of Ohio State to linger into 2017.
Florida State: Louisville
8 of 11
Odds: +700
Yes, Florida State kicks off the 2017 campaign against Alabama. However, after surrendering 63 points in a blowout loss in 2016, the Seminoles might want a little revenge on Louisville.
Fortunately for them, the defense is much improved and should have a healthy Derwin James on the back end. But containing Jackson, who gashed FSU for 362 total yards and five touchdowns, is far easier to suggest on paper than to execute on the field.
The 'Noles will probably be the favorite at home, but the possibility of Jackson's running all over them again is an unsettling thought.
USC: Texas
9 of 11
Odds: +700
With deserved nods to Stanford and Washington State, Tom Herman and Texas pose an intriguing threat to USC.
Although one nonconference loss won't derail the Trojans' season, it's unlikely they survive the Pac-12—plus the annual matchup with Notre Dame—unblemished. Two losses aren't a playoff death sentence, but a 10-2 record results in a debatable resume.
Perhaps the biggest concern for USC is how Herman seems to coach his best in the toughest moments, considering Houston finished 5-0 as the underdog, per teamrankings.com. The Trojans should be favored heading into the Sep. 16 clash.
Ohio State: Penn State
10 of 11
Odds: +600
Similar to FSU, Ohio State faces a marquee early opponent (Oklahoma) but has unfinished business from last year—although the loss to Penn State didn't keep the Buckeyes from the playoff.
Nevertheless, the Nittany Lions won't lack confidence when they travel to Columbus on Oct. 28. Trace McSorley will be ready to attack a secondary that lost three first-round draft picks.
Ohio State needs its supremely talented defensive line to make the road trip miserable for McSorley and Saquon Barkley.
Execution on special teams wouldn't hurt the Buckeyes, either.
Alabama: Auburn
11 of 11
Odds: +275
During the last two seasons, Alabama controlled the Iron Bowl by limiting Auburn to three-point tries. Of the Tigers' 25 total points, 18 came from Daniel Carlson field goals.
The times, they may be a-changin'.
It's an admittedly small sample, but Jarrett Stidham led Baylor to touchdowns on nine of his 12 red-zone possessions as a starter in 2015. Overall, when inside the 40-yard line, he completed 18 of 27 passes with eight scores and zero interceptions.
Should the Tigers finish drives more efficiently with Stidham running the offense, Alabama might start to feel the pressure. And one bad mistake in the regular-season finale could shake up which SEC team represents the conference in the playoff.
Follow Bleacher Report CFB writer David Kenyon on Twitter, @Kenyon19_BR.
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