Burning Questions Ahead of the College Football National Championship Game
College football is back in no-man's land when it comes to the national championship.
Five years ago, Alabama's rematch with LSU in the BCS title game helped spark the change to the four-team College Football Playoff, in part to make it tougher for such a thing to occur. LSU won the regular-season game 9-6 in overtime, but Alabama took the contest that mattered most, 21-0.
This season we're getting a different kind of rematch—one that most prefer, as Alabama vs. Clemson is a repeat of last year's title game. The Crimson Tide won 45-40, and the way the matchup turned into a shootout in the second half made many wonder how things might have played out in different circumstances.
We'll get to find out. Alabama hasn't lost since then and Clemson's had only one defeat, and the two teams have earned their way back.
But while Monday's matchup is familiar, this kind of rematch is not.
According to the NCAA record book, teams ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the Associated Press Top 25 poll had met 24 times in a bowl game before the CFP was created. None was a rematch from the year before.
Actually, none of those matchups, including the previous playoff title games, had featured the same two opponents until now.
How Will Jalen Hurts Respond to Having a New Offensive Coordinator?
1 of 12
Alabama head coach Nick Saban said his offense had 25 negative plays in the Peach Bowl semifinal, a lot of which had to do with the passing game.
"We had poor execution, a lot of poor fundamentals," he said. "Didn't execute well. Weren't very consistent."
The poor performance also had something to do with coaching, or else Saban wouldn’t have made a change at offensive coordinator.
No one knows how having Steve Sarkisian start his new job early will affect freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts, but the initial indications were positive.
"He's really locked in," sophomore wide receiver Calvin Ridley said. "He really likes Coach Sarkisian, and Coach Sarkisian is giving him a lot of new tips, a lot of new things to get better."
Ridley also said practices had been "faster and smoother" under Sarkisian.
"We're just running a lot of new things," he added. "Not too much new, but we like the plays that we're getting. We like what Coach Sarkisian is doing."
How Much of an Impact Can Mike Williams Make?
2 of 12
The junior All-American wide receiver missed last year's game after suffering a neck fracture due to colliding with a goal past on the opening drive of the season (he did make the four-yard touchdown catch, though).
At 6'3", 225 lbs, he's an extremely valuable target for Watson. Williams leads the team with 90 receptions for 1,267 yards and 10 touchdowns, and he had six catches for 96 yards against Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl.
"He's just another weapon for the defense, for them to worry about," Watson said.
Meanwhile, Artavis Scott is Clemson's career leader in receptions with 242. He has 73 catches for 608 yards and five touchdowns, and tight end Jordan Leggett has 39 catches for 641 yards and seven touchdowns.
The real question is if Clemson's receivers can be more effective than last year's group, which was also without Deon Cain (suspended).
Charone Peake led the Tigers against Alabama in the national championship game last season with six receptions for 99 yards, and Hunter Renfrow made seven catches for 88 yards and two touchdowns. Leggett had five catches for 78 yards and a touchdown.
Those are the benchmarks to keep an eye on. Alabama will have a better idea of where Watson wants to go with the ball, while Clemson will try to get Williams on junior cornerback Anthony Averett.
Can Tight End O.J. Howard Do It Again?
3 of 12
The short answer is probably not, because last year's national championship effort was a game of a lifetime for Howard. He had five catches for 208 yards and two touchdowns en route to being named the offensive MVP.
"O.J.'s played extremely well for us," Nick Saban said. "I know some people will look at how many passes he catches as if that is his performance level based on that one statistical piece of information, but that's not how we evaluate a guy that plays tight end.
"He's improved as a blocker. He's done everything we've asked him to do all year. He's never gotten upset."
Surprisingly, there hasn't been much buzz about Howard heading into the rematch, but look for Alabama to again attack Clemson on the edges and see if it defends him in coverage better. He could also be an effective decoy.
"I'd like to see him have more production," Saban said. "I'd like to see some other skill players on our team have more production as well."
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Which Team Will Win 3rd Downs?
4 of 12
Nick Saban called third-down stops a "critical" statistic for the defense, "probably as important as anything." If the defense can't get off the field, it could get worn down like it did during last year's game.
"When they convert a third down, it allows them to extend drives so the defense has to play these longer drives," the coach said. "When you get off the field on third down, you're usually shortening drives, which, that's when they like to go fast."
Alabama still won that statistical category last year. The Crimson Tide offense was 9-of-18 on third down, while the Tigers were 6-of-14.
An interesting twist in the rematch is, Alabama's offense has gone high-tempo this season, so time of possession could be up for grabs even if the Crimson Tide run a lot.
Clemson is fifth in the nation in converting third downs (.512), while Alabama is 20th (.461). Defensively, the Tigers are sixth (.291); the Crimson Tide seventh (.300). Alabama is first, and Clemson is second in three-and-outs.
Can Hurts Get the Ball to His Wide Receivers?
5 of 12
As the stakes have risen, Jalen Hurts' passing numbers have declined. He went from 286 yards against Auburn to 138 vs. Florida and a season-low 57 last week against Washington.
Ridley had one reception for six yards; junior ArDarius Stewart had two carries for 10 yards and no catches.
Part of that had to with the way the semifinal game played out and the amount of respect the Crimson Tide had for the Huskies' defensive backs. Regardless, Alabama will need more out of its quarterback in order to find offensive balance.
"I don't care how good a player you are as a freshman, you're going to be better as a junior. You just get better with time," Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney said. "I think you've got to be smart, and I think that's what Alabama has done. But he's not a freshman anymore. The guy has played, what, 14 games. I mean, heck, he's well on his way into his junior year."
Which Team Has the Better Running Game?
6 of 12
Although Clemson's Wayne Gallman is the leading rusher with 1,087 yards, the answer is Alabama.
The Crimson Tide would have two 1,000-yard rushers if sacks counted against passing yards like they do in the National Football League. Running back Damien Harris has 1,013 net rushing yards, and Hurts has 891, but he has gained 1,093.
The player to watch, though, is 6'2", 228-pound sophomore Bo Scarbrough, who torched Washington for 180 rushing yards and two touchdowns. A year ago, Derrick Henry had 158 yards on 36 carries and three touchdowns against Clemson.
"He's a very good player," Clemson defensive end Clelin Ferrell said about Scarbrough. "He's definitely a big back. They have Damien Harris back there, as well, who can play. He's a little bit smaller. He's like a bowling ball back there.
"You know Alabama. You know those are big, physical guys who can run very well. It's kind of crazy to see the monster sets that a guy like Scarbrough has had over the last couple games. He looks like he came ready to play."
Since 2008, Alabama is 91-4 when rushing for at least 140 yards. Clemson ranks 19th nationally in rushing defense, yielding an average of 123.1 yards per game.
Who Will Lead Each Team in Tackles?
7 of 12
This statistical category could be telling, especially on the Alabama side. In last year's game, free safety Geno Matias-Smith led the Crimson Tide with 11 tackles. Linebacker Reggie Ragland, who topped the team over the whole season, made five.
Butkus Award winner Reuben Foster leads this year's squad, and if he's making the most hits against Clemson, it'll be a good sign for Alabama. It'll mean everything is still before the defensive front seven.
"I know I wouldn't want to be hit by him," Calvin Ridley said about Foster. "He's tough.
"A couple of his fingers are broken, but he goes out there, hits, runs sideline-to-sideline and is a true beast. True beast."
On the flip side, Clemson's leading tacklers a year ago were safety T.J. Green (11) and linebacker B.J. Goodson (10), while defensive end Kevin Dodd had three sacks. None of them are still on the team.
Linebacker Ben Boulware, now the Tigers' leading tackler, only made three tackles in last year's game.
How Fast Can Alabama Get Pressure on Deshaun Watson?
8 of 12
According to Rainer Sabin of AL.com, when Chattanooga played Alabama on Nov. 19, the Mocs went to the extreme of letting the defensive players line up in the neutral zone during practices to replicate the Crimson Tide's pass rush. Coaches also told their quarterback to always throw the ball within 2.8 seconds to avoid taking a big hit right before the FCS playoffs.
Chattanooga achieved the goal of taking no sacks and got an early field goal by abandoning the read-option part of its zone-based scheme (catching the Crimson Tide by surprise). However, it never got near the end zone again.
Although Alabama finished with 53 sacks last year, this season's defense is faster and has been better at applying quarterback pressure. Deshaun Watson's having time to throw was a big factor in his completing 30 passes for 405 yards and four touchdowns in last year's title game.
This time his receivers will have to get open quicker, and he will have to get rid of the ball faster.
"They have some good guys that are very knowledgeable of the game and put in the work, and they just win their matchups," Watson said.
Can Clemson Match Alabama in the Trenches?
9 of 12
While Clemson’s line is the strength of the defense, how the offensive lines fare will go a long way in determining the eventual winner.
Both units will be under attack the entire game, and the side that is better able to get into a rhythm will have a significant advantage.
Alabama’s line struggled with that against Washington in the Peach Bowl.
“When I addressed the offense, I just wanted to let the offense know, as a unit, the way we played last weekend is not acceptable,” Alabama All-American left tackle and co-captain Cam Robinson said. “”Playing like that, that’s the type of stuff that will get us beat.”
Statistically, Clemson is 62nd nationally in rushing offense and tied for 13th in sacks allowed (1.14). Alabama is 11th and tied for 40th (1.71), respectively.
Straight up that appears to be an advantage for the Crimson Tide, but it’ll come down to the matchups.
The players who figure to be targeted the most are Clemson freshman right tackle Sean Pollard, and Alabama senior right guard Korren Kirven. Both made their first starts during the second half of the regular season.
Can Alabama Get a Non-Offensive Touchdown?
10 of 12
Alabama has scored 15 non-offensive touchdowns, including 11 by the defense. The breakdown is six interceptions, five fumbles, three punt returns and one blocked punt.
Specifically:
- Marlon Humphrey, USC, 18-yard interception return
- Eddie Jackson, Western Kentucky, 55-yard interception return
- Eddie Jackson, Ole Miss, 85-yard punt return
- Da'Ron Payne, Ole Miss, three-yard fumble return
- Jonathan Allen, Ole Miss, 75-yard fumble return
- Xavian Marks, Kent State, 75-yard punt return
- Ronnie Harrison, Kentucky, 55-yard fumble return
- Tim Williams, Arkansas, 23-yard fumble return
- Minkah Fitzpatrick, Arkansas, 100-yard interception return
- Ronnie Harrison, Tennessee, 58-yard interception return
- Eddie Jackson, Tennessee, 79-yard punt return
- Jonathan Allen, Texas A&M, 30-yard fumble return
- Minkah Fitzpatrick, Florida, 44-yard interception return
- Josh Jacobs, Florida, 27-yard blocked punt return
- Ryan Anderson, Washington, 26-yard interception return
Of course, special teams played a huge part in last year's game, with Marlon Humphrey's perfectly timed onside-kick recovery and Kenyan Drake's kickoff-return touchdown, both in the fourth quarter.
But Clemson hasn't given up a kick return for a touchdown since. The Tigers went from ranking 116th in the nation on kick returns in 2015 to 48th; the longest punt return allowed this season has been 16 yards.
Opponents have had one pick-six and no fumble returns for a touchdown.
"We've got to find a way to not let them score anywhere but on offense," Dabo Swinney said at Saturday's media day in Tampa, Florida. "I think that's the biggest challenge going in is don't let them score on special teams and defense because that's been an incredible recipe for them this year.
"But last year, I mean, we all thought it was going to be 6-3 going into the game."
Which Quarterback Will Be Affected More by the Pass Rush?
11 of 12
If the question was which quarterback will get sacked more, the answer would be Jalen Hurts. Instead, it's Deshaun Watson.
Hurts has had it drilled into his head that it's better to take a sack than to throw an interception, and when in doubt he throws the ball away. Overall, Alabama's only had nine passes picked off and allowed 24 sacks.
Clemson's only yielded 16 sacks this season, but Watson's 17 interceptions are tied for the second-most in the Bowl Subdivision.
"The hits are going to arrive a lot quicker," Clemson co-offensive coordinator Tony Elliott said on media day. "Then you see on the back end, it's like playing against an NFL secondary. The windows are very, very, very small. Because they can rush with four, they can drop their linebackers into coverage, they can disguise some things, tip balls. They have all the ways to create turnovers.
"They can create it with their D-line, they can create it with sack fumbles, they can tip balls for interceptions, then they force you to throw into tight windows. Their guys are in position to make plays in those tight windows."
The players to watch on the offensive lines are Clemson freshman right tackle Sean Pollard, and Alabama senior right guard Korren Kirven. Both made their first starts during the second half of the regular season.
Which Team Has the Mental Edge Coming In?
12 of 12
A lot of people would say Clemson because of the revenge factor, but the closer we get to the game, the more Alabama has been able to turn that to its advantage.
"You just got to work harder because you know they're coming with a chip on their shoulder," Reuben Foster said during Saturday's media day. "They're coming with vengeance."
Even though OddsShark.com lists Alabama as a 6.5-point favorite, and Nick Saban has never lost a national championship game, Clemson has become a popular pick in the media. That's getting played up in the Crimson Tide locker room.
Alabama linebacker Ryan Anderson told ESPN.com's Edward Aschoff, "We do feel like we're underdogs right now," and tight end O.J. Howard called the attention Clemson's been getting "a slap in the face," per Aschoff.
The more Alabama hears about Clemson's confidence, the more motivated it'll be. Considering Saban calls his defense "hateful" in its approach, the players don't need much help getting a chip on their shoulders.
"We're still writing our legacy," defensive end Jonathan Allen said at media day. "We're going to be remembered by how we finish.
The goal? "To be the best ever."
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
Christopher Walsh is a lead SEC college football writer. Follow Christopher on Twitter @WritingWalsh.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
