Alabama vs. Clemson: B/R's Expert Picks for the 2017 National Championship Game
A rematch for the ages will take place at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida, on Monday night between top-ranked Alabama and No. 2 Clemson—one year after the Tide topped the Tigers for the national title in Glendale, Arizona.
Will history repeat itself, or will Clemson get the revenge it has wanted for a full season?
Analysts Adam Kramer, Barrett Sallee, Christopher Walsh, Greg Couch and Michael Felder break down the College Football Playoff National Championship in the final edition of Bleacher Report expert picks of the 2016-17 season.
How Much Will the Revenge Factor Play in for Clemson?
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Adam Kramer
I’m sure they are using this as motivation, but I doubt this is an overriding factor. If you cannot be purely motivated by the thought of being a national champion, then something is wrong.
Sure, you want to beat the team that beat you last year. I get that. Makes sense. But being a national champion—beating this year’s group—feels like more of the story here. And if they want to use revenge as fuel, that’s fine. I just don’t feel they need to; there’s plenty at stake.
Barrett Sallee
Absolutely none. Zero. Zilch.
Clemson's goal this year was to finish the drill and win a national title. The Tigers could have met Washington, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, South Carolina, South Carolina State, Wofford, The Citadel or a team consisting of the five of us in Tampa. It is of zero importance to them.
That said, the fact they are playing Alabama after falling to the Tide 45-40 a year ago is a nice little cherry on top of a massive dessert the Tigers hope to eat.
Christopher Walsh
I think it’s everything for the Tigers, who have had a year to think about how they had the momentum during last year’s title game, only to lose 45-40. It's not like Alabama will be overlooking Clemson at all, but there’s a real cause for optimism for the Tigers as head coach Dabo Swinney’s team has all the key ingredients to potentially knock off the reigning champions. Clemson also has something else: the chip on its shoulder.
One could tell Dabo was ready to push that button when during the press conference (subscription required) following the Fiesta Bowl, he said: “You can best believe we're going to show up. And we're going to lay it all on the line and see if we can find a way to finish.”
Greg Couch
It's funny to think about someone wanting revenge against Alabama. If that's how Clemson's looking at it, then it won't work. Clemson needs to be focusing on itself in the now. That's not to say the loss wasn't a driving force all year. It was. But it's not about Alabama.
Michael Felder
None. Not sure where there is space for "revenge factor" when Clemson is preparing to win a national title. The Tigers coaches are already working overtime to create a game plan that generates success. Their players are already prepping to go out and bring home the school's first title since Danny Ford.
The rematch is nice from a television standpoint. It is nice for dummies who speak in non-actual football talk to discuss. But unless you're going to tell me the "revenge factor" is going to make Clemson give 110 percent, I just don't have much time for it.
Can Clemson's Defense Force Alabama's Offense Out of Its Comfort Zone?
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Kramer
What’s interesting is that we don’t know what this comfort zone is. My immediate thought, after watching Jalen Hurts struggle mightily against Washington, is that Clemson can force Alabama to do things it doesn’t want to do.
Turning Alabama into a one-dimensional offense—ensuring that it morphs back into a team that runs its running backs—is always the goal. The problem is that stopping this "simple" attack can be extremely difficult. There is also the threat that Hurts could run.
I think Clemson can and will have success against the Alabama offense, but I don’t believe it will come easy.
Sallee
Yes.
While the world watched in awe as video game cheat code Bo Scarbrough ran all over Washington, Clemson's performance against Ohio State—only 88 rushing yards allowed—was the most impressive performance on New Year's Eve. That crew—led by Christian Wilkins, Dexter Lawrence and Clelin Ferrell—will have enough success against the Crimson Tide rushing attack to force quarterback Jalen Hurts to win a game with his arm. That's something that he hasn't done this year and will be what decides the outcome of the title game.
Walsh
Washington did a pretty good job of this even though running back Bo Scarbrough was able to plow his way to two touchdowns. The Crimson Tide’s passing game was almost nonexistent, and now head coach Nick Saban has switched offensive coordinators, as Steve Sarkisian will make his Alabama debut in the most important game of the year.
Alabama fans are already familiar with Clemson defensive lineman Carlos Watkins, linebacker Ben Boulware and cornerback Cordrea Tankersley, but most of the other starters were new this season. Clemson’s defensive line will be problematic, but Alabama’s versatility makes it nearly impossible to completely get it out of its comfort zone.
Couch
Yes. The Tigers like to mix things up and give different looks. And Alabama does have a freshman quarterback and a new offensive coordinator.
Felder
We saw Washington's defense make Alabama uncomfortable with the way its front seven got into the backfield and caused problems. So, yes. Yes, that Clemson defensive line is going to be a monster against an Alabama offensive line that has not been nearly as good as people seem to think. Jalen Hurts is going to have to find yardage with his legs on broken plays because Clemson is going to find its way into the backfield consistently.
Will It Be the Bo Scarbrough Show Again for Alabama?
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Kramer
It has to be. Nick Saban has talked extensively about playing the hot hand, and this is the hot hand. This is a player who you deep down don’t want to tackle because, well, look at him.
Alabama has no shortage of options, though. Clemson knows this. Clemson also watched Scarbrough change an entire game around, and it will have a strong focus on what he’s doing.
In that sense, I don’t believe Alabama will attempt to reinvent the wheel, at least not at this position. Scarbrough will play a significant role in deciding this outcome.
Sallee
Plan A for Alabama will be a heavy dose of the #BoDozer, but I do think they'll get forced off that plan thanks to Clemson's stifling defense.
That said, if Scarbrough goes beast mode like he did on the long touchdown run against Washington in the Peach Bowl early in the title game, it would go a long way toward keeping Bama's offense on schedule and inside its comfort zone.
Clemson won't let that happen. This game will get weird and look a lot like the shootout in Glendale between these two teams a year ago.
Walsh
It should be. Although tight end O.J. Howard was the offensive MVP in last year’s title game, but Derrick Henry was the workhorse and finished with 36 carries for 158 yards and three touchdowns. Alabama’s offensive line isn’t necessarily geared the same way, but there’s no reason not to attack with elements of the power-running game until Clemson shows it can stop it.
Couch
That would be a good bet. After that Washington game, it's clear that there is no better, detailed, strategic offensive game plan for the Tide than this: Turn and hand it to Bo.
Felder
It should be. He is the only part of that offense, in its current form, that is remotely scary. I love Calvin Ridley and ArDarius Stewart and O.J. Howard, but the reality is they don't get the ball enough, or where they should on the field to be viewed as terrifying. Scarbrough, in the third and fourth quarter, is a load to tackle, and that is what Alabama is going to need so it can keep the ball out of Deshaun Watson's hands.
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What Is the Most Important Matchup in the Game?
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Kramer
Clemson’s offensive line versus Alabama’s defensive line. To me, this will ultimately shape the football game.
The Alabama front seven is just an amazing bunch. Washington’s chances began to slip the moment Jake Browning couldn’t stay upright. I believe of the two teams, Clemson’s line is better. I also believe Deshaun Watson is more likely to slip away than Jake Browning.
Still, for Clemson to score, Watson will need time.
Sallee
To me, it'll be Alabama's wide receivers against Clemson's defensive backs. We've seen the Tigers defensive backs get picked on a bit by teams that can throw the ball, like Pitt in the loss and Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game win.
If Calvin Ridley, ArDarius Stewart and the rest of that crew can get loose and give Jalen Hurts easy throws, it'll open up the running lanes and give Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris much more room to work inside. If the passing game isn't clicking, it'll be a long night for the Crimson Tide.
Walsh
To me, the game boils down to Clemson’s offensive line, which has a freshman at right tackle and two sophomores on the left side. I’m not expecting the Tigers to run much, although quarterback Deshaun Watson is going to get some yards, but the line has to give him enough time to throw downfield for Clemson to have a chance to win.
Couch
Let's go with Jonathan Allen vs. Deshaun Watson. Or Alabama's defensive front against Watson. Watson loves to show that he can pass, and he's fine at it. But if he's willing to run, and if Alabama's front can't get to him, then someone might actually score points off the Tide for a change.
Felder
Clemson's pass-catchers against Alabama's pass defenders. Whether it is radio show hosts or just fans via Twitter, people keep telling me how great Alabama's pass defense has been this season. Based on what? Playing against Danny Etling, Nick Fitzgerald, Austin Appleby and Sean White?
It is interesting people routinely forget the Ole Miss game when we have this talk because it doesn't fit the narrative. Maybe Minkah Fitzpatrick, Marlon Humphrey, Ronnie Harrison and even Reuben Foster—when the linebacker defends running backs and tight ends—are otherworldly, but I'd like to see them against a capable offense before I decide to crown them.
What Must Deshaun Watson Do to Stress Alabama's Defense?
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Kramer
Watching last year’s tape would be a start. Watson was essentially a video game cheat code in the title game, which Clemson nearly won.
A few things stand out, though. His ability to extend plays, beyond the ability to accumulate yardage on the ground, will be vital. That is easier said than done against this front seven, although it will be key.
One area I would look for him to stress is the flats. That was an area Washington had success in, and Clemson has the players (Artavis Scott, Wayne Gallman, Mike Williams, Deon Cain and Jordan Leggett) to make it possible.
Sallee
Find his receivers early and often.
Regardless of who specifically that is, he has to stress Alabama's secondary deep. He needs to find tight end Jordan Leggett, Scott, Cain, Ray-Ray McCloud and others, so the attention Alabama will undoubtedly pay to stud Mike Williams—who was out for last year's title game tilt between these two teams—will shift to the other weapons Watson has at his disposal.
If Watson can do that, the running lanes for himself and running back Wayne Gallman will part like the Red Sea, and the entire Tigers offense will be at Watson's disposal.
Walsh
First and foremost, he can’t turn the ball over. Watson’s 17 interceptions are tied for the second most in the Football Bowl Subdivision (trailing only Purdue’s David Blough with 21). With Alabama’s defense having scored 11 touchdowns, any mistake could result in points.
Alabama has nearly the same secondary as a year ago, but the unit has grown up a lot since then. Clemson needs a balanced offensive attack, combined with the threat of Watson taking off out of the pocket, to get Alabama’s defense on its heels.
Couch
Run. Run, Deshaun, run. I can't see any pocket holding up against the Alabama front. Watson has to be willing to get out of it. He's smart. He knows. He'll do it.
Felder
Just play his game. He's the best quarterback in college football, and he can do everything you want at the position. Find Williams. Find Cain. Hit Leggett. Flip it out to McCloud and Scott. Work the run-pass options and control the safeties with his legs so that he can create big plays down the field before Jonathan Allen, Tim Williams and Ryan Anderson get him on the ground. In the run game, be effective, move the linebackers, make them expand so that his pal Wayne Gallman can find creases and pick up first downs.
Which Quarterback Rushes for More Yards: Watson or Hurts?
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Kramer
I’ll say Hurts. I believe this will be a feature part of Alabama’s game given the way he struggled to throw the ball. I also believe, as stated above, that Watson’s mobility will come behind the line of scrimmage.
He’ll run for yardage as well, although I think Clemson would be more than happy to watch him make plays with his arm. For Hurts, because of his experience or lack thereof, because of the coordinator change, because of the last game, I think they’ll try to simplify it some.
Give Washington credit. It did a wonderful job corralling the quarterback. But he’s still explosive, and I believe that will show up once more.
Sallee
Watson, because I think Clemson has been holding him back throughout the year for a couple of reasons. One, because the staff and Watson wanted to develop the passing aspect of his game more to help the team and up Watson's draft stock. Two, because they wanted to protect Watson as much as possible to use his legs when it matters most.
Now's the time.
He had 85 rushing yards in the ACC Championship Game against Virginia Tech, and it seemed like the staff was making a much more concerted effort to get him going on the ground than at any other point this year. That probably would have been the case against Ohio State had the game not gotten so sideways. Watson will go north of 80 rushing yards, while Hurts will hover around 50 or 60.
Walsh
Hurts, because Alabama wants him to run more than Clemson needs Watson to. Hurts’ passing game is still a work in progress, whereas Watson knows he can throw against the Crimson Tide defense having done so a year ago. Look for Alabama to call more designed runs and for Watson to be flushed out of the pocket on a pretty regular basis.
Couch
Watson. It feels like we keep going back to the same question here. But I'm not looking for Hurts to determine the game with his legs.
Felder
While Jalen Hurts wears Deshaun Watson pajamas, I do expect Hurts to have more rushing yards. He has to because he'll be on the run more than Watson. Not specifically from a pressure situation, but because he doesn't scan the whole field, works a lot more one- or two-read plays and then tucks to get what he can. With that in mind, and not factoring in sacks for either of them, I expect he picks up more yards than Watson, whose running is more targeted in an effort to create for his team and build an attack.
Who Is the X-Factor for Each Team?
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Kramer
For Alabama, it’s O.J. Howard. I know we know this name by now. I also know we know what he did in last year’s title game. He was a monster, and I believe Alabama needs him to be again.
I also think he will be. There will be opportunities for him to make plays—to be a safety option for a young QB and then turn that play into something more.
For Clemson, I’ll take wideout Deon Cain. Next year, he’s going to be a big deal. This year, after missing out on last year’s title game due to a suspension, he could be the perfect answer if the 'Bama defense puts a huge focus on Mike Williams (which it kinda, sorta has to).
Sallee
Clemson tight end Jordan Leggett. Last year, we saw Hunter Renfrow make a few big plays early. This go-around, I think the Tigers will look to Leggett early to take safety help away from wide receiver Mike Williams in the hope of hitting Alabama with a heavy dose of Williams in the second quarter and beyond.
If Leggett makes a couple of big plays early, it'll be over. Alabama will be so far out of its comfort zone that it might as well be floating in the middle of Tampa Bay with no oar.
For Alabama, it's Jalen Hurts. Regardless of who the coordinator is for the Crimson Tide, this game is—and always has been—about Hurts' ability to make plays with his arm deep downfield.
Walsh
Williams didn’t play in last year’s meeting after a neck injury forced him to miss most of the 2015 season. He’s a game-changing player, and Clemson’s ability to get him the ball could be crucial to its chances.
For Alabama, the obvious answer is tight end Howard, and it also needs the wide receivers to be more involved in the offense after Calvin Ridley and ArDarius Stewart barely touched the ball against Washington. However, the true X-factor is new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian because no one knows what to expect.
Couch
Let's go with receivers. Clemson's Renfrow and Alabama's Ridley. Renfrow is a big-game player, and when Alabama's defense starts trying to cheat a little when Watson runs, he could be in for big plays again. In last year's title game, he had two touchdowns. And I think Alabama will take a few downfield shots at Ridley. He had just one catch for six yards against Washington. Look for Sarkisian to use him a little differently.
Felder
Dorian O'Daniel. He's a lean linebacker for the Tigers, and I am curious to watch how he handles tackling Scarbrough. I know he can run to Hurts as well as expand to the sideline to get to Stewart from the inside going out, but he has to stand strong in the hole to stop Scarbrough, and that is a tough task.
On the other side, ArDarius Stewart. He has been Alabama's best offensive player this season, taking the screens, quick outs, quick-toss passes and turning them into major gains for the Tide. He has to continue to do that against Clemson so that Alabama generates first downs and keeps things simple for its young quarterback.
Alabama Will Win If...
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Kramer
It pressures the quarterback and Hurts picks up his game.
The Alabama offense does not have to be a work of art. I still think the defense can do much of the heavy lifting. But Hurts will have to make a play at some point, with his arm or with his legs. He can’t turn the ball over. The Tide need him to find his game again, and I think he can.
Sallee
Hurts comes of age.
He's been awesome this year but hasn't been stressed all that much. Sure, the Tide were in a hole at Ole Miss in Week 3. But Hurts didn't have to change what he does best to claw out of it thanks to Ole Miss' ineptitude defensively.
He's going to have to grow up in this game. He has the mental makeup of a veteran, but it's impossible to predict how he will handle the pressure of winning a game with his arm for the first time in his career on this stage.
Walsh
The offense can get into a rhythm.
Couch
Hurts can get—and is allowed to try to get—the ball downfield. Look for Scarbrough to smash around again like he did against Washington, and if Hurts can just get it downfield a couple of times, Clemson will be in trouble.
Felder
The score of the game doesn't cross into the 30s. This team does not want to score a lot of points and, more importantly, does not want to be forced to rely on its offense to score the points. That means getting to Watson, proving that the secondary is ready to handle two legit No. 1 receivers plus a great tight end, and getting off the field on third downs.
Clemson Will Win If...
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Kramer
Watson is superman, which we’ve seen him do, and the defense recreates the Ohio State game plan.
If the Clemson front can limit the Alabama rushing attack and force Hurts into uncomfortable, predictable passing situations, the Tigers have a great chance. I think it starts with Watson, as it always does, but the game plan hinges more on the people around him.
Sallee
Its offense has success against a susceptible Crimson Tide secondary and forces Alabama's to play point-a-minute football. That's head coach Swinney's wheelhouse and a place Saban would rather avoid with a new offensive coordinator and a true freshman quarterback.
Walsh
Watson can match his numbers from last year’s game, including 405 passing yards and 73 rushing.
Couch
It can keep Alabama's pass rush off Watson. He seems to be getting better and better. Too bad the Heisman vote has already passed. The wrong guy won.
Felder
It can force Alabama to play catch up. The offenses of these two teams are the biggest mismatch because Clemson would drool at the chance to play in a "race to 50" game, while Alabama would rather not. Watson has to get it going with his arm and legs. Yo-yo the safeties with run-action fakes that then lead to 50-50 balls to Williams or Cain that his receivers should win. Make Foster prove he is the man they say he is by covering Leggett down the chute. On the other side, work contain on Hurts, that means not coming after him like a bat out of hell, but recognizing he's working quick reads and then squeezing him instead of creating seams for him to exploit.
Who Will Win the National Championship?
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Kramer
Alabama. It won’t be a blowout. In fact, I think we have a chance to recreate a magical game, much like the one we saw last year. I don’t think there will be as many points scored as we saw in that thriller, but it will be close, it will be tense and it will be watched by a lot of people.
And Alabama will win. The conversations surrounding Saban’s legacy will take up much of the next week. And then football, sadly, will end. Goodness, what am I going to do with myself?
Sallee
Clemson, by at least a touchdown.
It'll be a close game, but Clemson will get the job done and pull away late.
Not to take anything away from Alabama. It deserves to be here. But this is a game of matchups. The Tide matched up well with the Tigers last year because Jake Coker could take the top off a defense. Jalen Hurts hasn't shown the same ability, which will prevent the Tide from repeating.
I'm not a prisoner of the moment or anything like that. In fact, Felder and I both picked Clemson the day the CFP pairings came out. Clemson's upside is just a bit higher than Alabama's this year. We'll see it Monday night.
Walsh
Alabama.
Couch
Clemson. I'm expecting a huge game from Watson.
Felder
Clemson. Not wavering from the pick a while ago. And to be clear so that I don't get bothered later, I am not picking against Alabama—I just like Clemson more. I liked them more a year ago when special teams cost the Tigers the game. I like them more this year where I expect they'll be better prepared, especially on special teams.
This Alabama team is quite frustrating because while I love the front seven, I'm not sure what else I'm supposed to be enamored by with them. The individual pieces are glorious, but knowing how limited the offense has been over the course of the season, it is frustrating to watch 3rd-and-7, throw for four yards to Stewart or Howard and just hope they can win the one-on-one to extend the drive.
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