College Football Championship 2017: Odds, Predictions for Clemson vs. Alabama

The matchup so nice, they had to do it twice.

Alabama and Clemson return to the College Football Playoff National Championship for the second straight year Monday. Their first matchup was an up-and-down thrill ride that saw 40 points scored in the fourth quarter. Alabama walked away with a 45-40 victory and its fourth national championship under Nick Saban.

Clemson, beefed up with returning starters from the team that fell in last year's title game, is bent on redemption. The Tigers waltzed in their semifinal matchup for the second straight year, earning a dominant 31-0 win over Ohio State. Deshaun Watson accounted for three touchdowns, and Ohio State amounted a paltry 215 total yards.

Alabama had a similar muscle-flexing performance on defense in its 24-7 win over Washington. The Tide held Washington to 194 yards and got 180 yards and two touchdowns from Bo Scarbrough on the ground. Their struggles outside Scarbrough led to the early departure of offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin, who will be replaced by Steve Sarkisian.

That creates a wrinkle for Clemson, which will have to learn Sarkisian's play-calling techniques on the fly. Here's a look at some of the latest odds and predictions heading into Monday's game.

Odds

Spread	Moneyline	Total
Alabama (-6)	Alabama (-230), Clemson (+190)	51

Predictions

Sarkisian for Kiffin? Yeah, It Ain't Gonna Matter

Clemson's defense has seven days to prepare for a new Alabama offensive coordinator. The year of play-calling tendencies under Kiffin? That's all out the window. Sarkisian is going to view the talent differently and look to put his own stamp on the Tide offense.

One problem: Sarkisian has seven days, too. That's no time in football parlance. It's unclear how much of a say Sarkisian has had since being announced as Kiffin's replacement, but it's not enough to make any major schematic changes. A few play-calling wrinkles may be thrown in, but Sarkisian does not have nearly enough time to throw a whole new playbook at the Tide offense.

Nor, do I suspect, would Nick Saban allow him with a title on the line.

"It's not like they're going to come out and run the triple option. They're going to dance with who brung 'em. They're going to do what they do. It's just as simple as that," Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney told reporters. 

"Maybe it would be a little bit different if they had a month to get ready, like that first game, but you've got basically a game week to prepare," Swinney continued. "You're not going to vary too far from—and why would they? They've been really, really good. They've won 26 in a row. I don't think they're going to do much different."

With Saban telling reporters that Sarkisian knows the playbook "inside and out," odds are he'll be sticking close to the script followed by Kiffin.

Clemson is Better

It's that simple. Deshaun Watson is better. Wayne Gallman is better. Mike Williams might be the lord himself. That defense should have already gotten Brent Venables a head coaching job somewhere.

The Tigers rank third in Football Outsiders' adjusted scoring margin, still slightly behind Michigan (and Alabama). Clemson is allowing two fewer adjusted points this season than a year ago, and while the offense hasn't been quite as dynamic, it's been slightly better than Alabama's.

This team matches up better on both sides of the ball and has a massive experience advantage when it comes to the matchup with Alabama's offense. Jalen Hurts was in high school during last year's national championship game; Scarbrough was stapled to the bench as Derrick Henry rampaged over the nation.

Hurts has helped revolutionize the Tide offense, but he was vulnerable against Washington. The freshman was limited to 57 yards through the air and 50 on the ground. He's thrown for under 150 yards in three of the Tide's last four games and hasn't had more than 68 rushing yards in that span.

"I don’t know if he was really pressing," Kiffin told reporters of Hurts. "You know, I think he would be the first to tell you that he didn’t play great today. But, again, like I said all week, this is a big stage and he’s still a true freshman and this is a really good defense that gives people problems."

Watson's been shakier with interceptions and hasn't run as much as he did a year ago, but no one is questioning the readiness of anyone on the Clemson offense.

...But Bama is Better Too

Unfortunately, these Tigers might be playing the best Saban defense in history. Alabama has given up an adjusted 5.9 points per game. That's nearly two points better than second-place Michigan and nearly seven points better than the next nearest competitor (LSU). 

Last year, Alabama outscored opponents by a neat 30 points per game on Football Outsiders' adjusted scale. The Tide are blasting teams by 33.8 this season. They've outscored 13 of their 14 opponents by double digits. The 14th, Ole Miss, went on a late scoring barrage in what seemed like a blowout midway through the fourth quarter.

Alabama is scoring at a similar clip despite the lack of superstar rushing or passing numbers and defending at a rate that could put this team in an all-time great conversation with another win.

...But I'm Still Picking Clemson

Quarterbacking matters. Knowing where your playmakers are coming from matters. Alabama's scored 15 non-offensive touchdowns this season; without a 16th, it's hard to see the Tide offense keeping up with Clemson—even in a lower-scoring matchup than last year's affair.

Prediction: Clemson 27, Alabama 24