College Football National Championship 2017: Odds Guide for Clemson vs. Alabama
The Clemson Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide are playing for college football's ultimate prize on Monday, which means bettors have only one game remaining before a long offseason of analyzing rosters and making early predictions for next season.
If last season's College Football Playoff National Championship was any indication, fans and bettors will be in for a thrilling and nerve-wracking showdown. Alabama ultimately prevailed against Clemson, 45-40, and won its fourth national title in seven seasons.
With that in mind, here is a look at the Las Vegas odds, as well as some suggestions for how to approach betting on the game.
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The point spread is per OddsShark, as of Sunday at 5 p.m. ET, while the over-under is per Justin Hartling of OddsShark, as of Tuesday at 11 p.m. ET.
Odds
| Alabama vs. Clemson | Monday, Jan. 9 | 8 p.m. | ALA -6 | 51 |
Beware Alabama as a Single-Digit Favorite
It's rare that Deshaun Watson and the Tigers are underdogs, but Hartling noted they were 2-0 this season in that role.
One of those games was the Tigers' 31-0 dismantling of Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl to set up this title-game rematch. The Buckeyes never had much of a chance after Clemson seized the initial momentum and gradually dominated nearly every facet of the game.
The head-turning performance against one of college football's preeminent programs has the Tigers swarming with confidence, as head coach Dabo Swinney suggested, per Pete Iacobelli of the Associated Press (h/t the Salt Lake Tribune): "I feel like we have more juice…The biggest thing from last year is that they know they belong. They know they're good enough."
Clemson's self-belief and talent isn't the only reason to exercise caution when backing Alabama on Monday.
According to Hartling, Alabama is just 9-14-1 against the spread as a single-digit favorite since the beginning of the 2010 campaign:
| Nov. 5, 2016 | LSU | -7.0 | Yes | Yes |
| Jan. 11, 2016 | Clemson | -6.5 | Yes | No |
| Nov. 14, 2015 | Miss. St | -7.0 | Yes | Yes |
| Nov. 7, 2015 | LSU | -7.5 | Yes | Yes |
| Oct. 17, 2015 | Texas A&M | -5.0 | Yes | Yes |
| Sept. 19, 2015 | Ole Miss | -9.0 | Yes | Yes |
| Jan. 1, 2015 | Ohio State | -7.5 | No | No |
| Nov. 29, 2014 | Auburn | -9.5 | Yes | Yes |
| Nov. 15, 2014 | Miss. St | -9.0 | Yes | No |
| Nov. 8, 2014 | LSU | -7.0 | Yes | Push |
| Oct. 11, 2014 | Arkansas | -9.0 | Yes | No |
| Oct. 4, 2014 | Ole Miss | -4.5 | No | No |
| Sept. 14, 2013 | Texas A&M | -8.5 | Yes | No |
| Dec. 1, 2012 | Georgia | -9.0 | Yes | No |
| Nov. 3, 2012 | LSU | -7.5 | Yes | No |
| Jan. 9, 2012 | LSU | -2.5 | Yes | Yes |
| Nov. 5, 2011 | LSU | -5.5 | No | No |
| Oct. 1, 2011 | Florida | -4.0 | Yes | Yes |
| Jan. 1, 2011 | Mich. St | -8.0 | Yes | Yes |
| Nov. 26, 2010 | Auburn | -4.5 | No | No |
| Nov. 6, 2010 | LSU | -7.0 | No | No |
| Oct. 9, 2010 | S. Carolina | -7.0 | No | No |
| Oct. 2, 2010 | Florida | -8.0 | Yes | No |
| Sept. 25, 2010 | Arkansas | -7.0 | Yes | No |
If you are a believer in trends, Clemson may be the pick in Las Vegas.
It may seem like it is, but Alabama is not invincible. Watson proved as much in last season's title game with 405 passing yards, 73 rushing yards and four touchdowns. The Crimson Tide are favored with a loaded defense and formidable rushing attack, but Clemson has arguably the best player in the country who can take over a game at a moment's notice.
Between that and Alabama's lackluster history covering the spread as a single-digit favorite, be cautious automatically betting on the defending champions.
Trust the Defense Cliche (and Go With the Under)
The cliche that defense wins championships is not always true. But trust the saying with this season's matchup, even with the caution previously discussed.
Alabama's defense is first in the nation in yards allowed, points allowed and rushing yards allowed per game and dictates the tone of contests with its ability to dominate up front and score on its own.
Ryan Anderson's pick-six in Alabama's victory over Washington in the Peach Bowl was the team's 11th defensive touchdown of the season. That type of game-changing presence will face a quarterback in Watson who, despite his unquestionable talent, is prone to mistakes, with 17 interceptions this season.
If the defense isn't enough to make you trust the favorite, Hartling provided more reason: "Alabama's mixture of explosive offense and stifling defense has led to the Tide posting an average scoring margin of plus-27.9 points. They have won all but one game this season by at least 10 points and have won by 20 or more on eight occasions."
Alabama has 16 interceptions on the season, and it creates those turnovers with a havoc-causing front seven that is second in the nation, with 50 sacks.
Hartling called featured piece Jonathan Allen "potentially the best player in college football" and a "surefire top-10 pick," while others such as Anderson, Tim Williams and Reuben Foster will make themselves familiar with Watson throughout the game.
The Crimson Tide held the Huskies to just seven points and 194 yards and are so dominant on defense that they will cover the spread and reward those who go with the under when making bets.
That is because the offensive strategy will rely largely on keeping Watson off the field and working the clock with the powerful Bo Scarbrough, who just churned through Washington's defense for 180 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
Scarbrough and Alabama's defense will be too much for Clemson and those who back the underdog in Las Vegas.
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