
College Football Championship Game 2017: Viewing Info, Odds and Prediction
For the second time in as many years, the Alabama Crimson Tide and Clemson Tigers will meet to determine a national champion.
Both teams cruised in their College Football Playoff semifinals. Alabama allowed 194 yards in a 24-7 Peach Bowl victory over the Washington Huskies, while Clemson shut out the Ohio State Buckeyes 31-0 in the Fiesta Bowl.
The Tigers will be looking to avenge last season's 45-40 defeat to the Crimson Tide in the title game.
When: Monday, at 8 p.m. ET
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Watch: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN
Odds (via OddsShark): Alabama (-6)
The national championship didn't need additional storylines to create intrigue, but Lane Kiffin's ouster as offensive coordinator has become a major talking point before Monday's game.
ESPN.com's Brett McMurphy reported a number of factors played into Nick Saban's decision to relieve Kiffin of his duties:
Still, replacing your offensive coordinator a week before playing in the national title game seems to be an unnecessary risk. Kiffin and Saban only needed to play nice until Monday and could then go in their separate directions after Kiffin accepted the head coaching position at Florida Atlantic.
Some, however, might argue that new Crimson Tide offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian merely needs to give the ball to Bo Scarbrough to put Alabama in a position to win.
The sophomore running back went for 180 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries in the win over Washington.
"It was his time," Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Hurts said of Scarbrough, per AL.com's Michael Casagrande. "Guys, it comes a time in the season when it's your time to shine. I think he shined bright like a diamond these past two games."
Many, including 2015 Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry, criticized Kiffin for not getting the ball to Scarbrough enough against the Huskies:
As a result, Sarkisian may not deviate too much from a game plan that has a heavy emphasis on the running game.
Considering how well Clemson has defended the run, it may not be as simple as putting the offense on Scarbrough's back and hoping for the best. As a team, the Tigers are 22nd in rushing defense (125.8 yards per game) and 20th in yards allowed per carry (3.5).
Digging a little deeper into the numbers, the Clemson defensive line is 12th in adjusted line yards, 32nd in power success rate and 33rd in stuff rate, according to Football Outsiders.
The Tigers surrendered 91 yards on 11 combined carries to Curtis Samuel and Mike Weber in their Fiesta Bowl victory. Sixty-four of those yards came on one run from Samuel in the fourth quarter.
Of course, that's not to say that Clemson has consistently stymied talented runners. This is the same defense that gave up 169 yards to Dalvin Cook and 162 yards to Lamar Jackson—both of which were wins. James Conner also had 132 yards and a touchdown in Pittsburgh's upset of the Tigers.
Whether or not the Tigers effectively nullify Scarbrough, they'll need Deshaun Watson to deliver one more time.
The senior quarterback went 30-of-47 for 405 yards, four touchdowns and an interception in last year's national championship, so he won't be fazed by Alabama's ball-hawking secondary.
He'll need to do better than he did against Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl, though. Watson threw two early interceptions, neither of which proved costly. The margin for error will be much smaller against Alabama—two early mistakes could swing the entire game.
Washington was a little over a minute away from taking a three-point deficit into the locker room at halftime of the Peach Bowl. Then Ryan Anderson intercepted a Jake Browning pass and returned it for a touchdown.
The Huskies never recovered from that turnover.
Clemson answered a lot of its doubters with its performance against Ohio State. The Tigers dominated on both sides of the ball and never let the Buckeyes into the game.
Still, Alabama is a well-oiled machine and by far the best team in the country. The entire 2016 season has basically been an illustration about how the Crimson Tide are in a class by themselves.
And when it looked like Alabama didn't have that workhorse back that has been a trademark of its offense in recent years, Scarbrough carved open a Washington defense that ranks 10th in run defense DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), per Football Outsiders.
The Crimson Tide are six-point favorites for a reason in the national championship.
Prediction: Alabama 27, Clemson 19
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