Alabama vs. Clemson: Top X-Factors for CFP National Championship 2017
The 2017 College Football Playoff National Championship will be a rematch of last year's matchup between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Clemson Tigers.
Both teams had little trouble in the semifinals against Washington and Ohio State, respectively. Alabama's defense continues to be dominant, holding the Huskies under 200 yards of total offense and only one possession in opposing territory after halftime.
Clemson continues to ride the arm of quarterback Deshaun Watson to great success. He had 316 total yards and three total touchdowns against the Buckeyes, giving himself a second opportunity to bring a national title to the program for the first time since 1981.
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With eight days until the title game on Jan. 9, here's a look at the X-factors who will determine the outcome when Alabama and Clemson lock horns to determine the best team in college football.
Alabama's X-Factors
Bo Scarbrough, Running Back
While a lot of focus on Alabama's offense goes toward quarterback Jalen Hurts, who was named SEC Offensive Player of the Year as a true freshman, wide receivers Ardarius Stewart and Calvin Ridley and running back Damien Harris, there is little left over for another running back.
Bo Scarbrough is not a prolific part of the Crimson Tide's offense. His season high in carries was 17 and he only had double-digits in carries four times, yet he also led all Alabama running backs with seven rushing touchdowns and a fantastic average of six yards per carry.
There's a reason Scarbrough makes such an impact despite having less than 100 touches prior to the playoff game against Washington: He's a physical specimen, but isn't so big that he can't run away from defenders when he breaks through the initial wave.
Scarbrough was considered a stud coming out of high school in 2014 when he was rated as a 5-star prospect by Scout.com.
LSU running back Leonard Fournette, who also came out of high school in 2014, spoke highly of Scarbrough last July.
"He's bigger than Derrick (Henry, last year's Heisman winner)," Fournette said, per Matt Zenitz of AL.com. "He's a great talent. He's not a sleeper at all. He's been doing the same things I thought he was gonna do since high school, so I'm looking forward to seeing him."
Alabama doesn't have a prolific offense, but it can attack quickly because of how much the defense is able to overwhelm the opposing team.
Scarbrough is critical to the Crimson Tide's fourth-quarter game plan because opponents are not going to have the strength to bring him down. He showed off that skill against Washington with an incredible 68-yard score that was part of his season-high 180 yards on 19 carries in the Peach Bowl:
Closer is a term more often associated with baseball than football, but Scarbrough is Alabama's equivalent of that because he's the biggest weapon the Crimson Tide has on offense and is used to end any hopes the opposition has of making a comeback.
Minkah Fitzpatrick, Defensive Back
It's hard to stand out on Alabama's defense, especially for anyone who doesn't play in the front seven where Jonathan Allen, Reuben Foster and Tim Williams roam, yet Minkah Fitzpatrick is just as integral to that group's success in 2016.
The Crimson Tide have scored 15 non-offensive touchdowns this season, thanks in no small part to Fitzpatrick's performance in the secondary. The sophomore had a team-leading six interceptions and scored two of those touchdowns.
Another reason to include Fitzpatrick as an X-factor, beyond his overall performance, is the way he helped the Crimson Tide when they lost safety Eddie Jackson to a broken leg in October.
Per Rainer Sabin of AL.com, Saban called Fitzpatrick into a meeting to tell the young star he was going to be moved from cornerback to safety, offering this description of the 19-year-old:
"Minkah is a really hard worker. He's a bright guy. He's a smart guy. He's a very instinctive player. And he's played really, really well for us. Hopefully we're going to be able to continue to get him to play that way. When I talk about discipline and eye control, looking at the right things, understanding what the other team is trying to do so you put yourself in the best position to take advantage of it, he probably does that as well as anybody that we have on defense. I think that he ends up making plays because of it.
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Fitzpatrick made his presence felt in the Peach Bowl against Washington, stripping the ball away from John Ross in the first quarter. Allen recovered it and set up a field goal that would put Alabama up 10-7.
Saban does such an incredible job of finding and developing defensive talent all over the field that the Crimson Tide could lose one of their stars at any position without suffering a significant drop in production because they have so many players who would be starting anywhere else in the country.
Yet Fitzpatrick's ability and willingness to take on a new challenge as he was in the midst of a tremendous sophomore season at cornerback speaks to his team-first mentality and part of why he will be a force on Jan. 9.
Clemson's X-Factors
Deshaun Watson, Quarterback
While picking a star quarterback as an X-factor is hardly going out on a limb, Deshaun Watson has to be great against Alabama's defense for Clemson to win in a way that Jalen Hurts doesn't have to be against Clemson's defense.
Hurts was basically a non-factor against Washington with 107 total yards and zero touchdowns, yet the Crimson Tide easily won because Scarbrough was an unstoppable force and the defense allowed 194 yards.
Per Pat Forde of Yahoo Sports, Washington quarterback Jake Browning's efficiency rating against Alabama was less than half of his season average:
In last year's title game against Alabama, Watson was fantastic with 478 total yards and four touchdowns. Clemson still came up short because the Crimson Tide scored 45 points, but no one can blame the quarterback for that.
The bad news this year is Watson has been prone to throwing interceptions (17), while Alabama has been otherworldly at scoring non-offensive touchdowns.
Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney did defend Watson leading up to the Fiesta Bowl against Ohio State, as he should.
"The good stuff, it’s not going to create the headlines," he said, per Paul Myerberg of USA Today. "If you talk about the five touchdowns that Deshaun threw, ‘Well, that’s Deshaun Watson. That’s what he’s supposed to be. But boy, he threw two picks!’ That’s the big news."
Watson did have two interceptions against Ohio State, but otherwise had his way against a secondary regarded as one of the nation's best with premier talents like Malik Hooker and Marshon Lattimore.
The two-time Heisman finalist finished with 259 passing yards and was making terrific throws like this one to C.J. Fuller right before halftime, per College Gameday:
Alabama's closest call this season came against Mississippi when Chad Kelly was able to beat the defense with 421 yards and three touchdowns.
While the Crimson Tide's defense has been virtually impenetrable this season, it's not impossible to beat them. A team just needs a quarterback playing at the top of his game without trying to force throws against the bruising front four for Alabama.
Clemson Defensive Line
It's not difficult to single out one member of Clemson's stout defensive line as a key factor in the title game, but the entire group has to play up to its full potential if it hopes to slow down Alabama's running game.
Christian Wilkins has 12 tackles for loss. Carlos Watkins has 9.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks. Linebackers Ben Boulware, Kendall Joseph and Dorian O'Daniel each have nine tackles for loss.
Having already touched on Scarbrough's importance to the Crimson Tide offense, the only way to take him out of the game is making sure to wrap him up and bring him down on initial contact.
Chris Hummer of 247Sports.com noted how the depth Swinney has accumulated for Clemson's defense has paid off this season:
"Things are a bit different than last year in terms of production when (Shaq) Lawson and (Kevin) Dodd combined for 48.5 tackles for loss while the rest of the team totaled 63.5, but each member of the Tigers front seven has at least 8.5 tackles for loss.
Some of those sacks and backfield tackles have shifted to the linebackers, and (Ben) Boulware willingly acknowledges it’s because Clemson’s quartet of “freaks up front” open gaps for the linebackers to make plays.
Not that the defensive linemen don’t get theirs.
The white power ranger (Wilkins) leads the team with 12 tackles for loss, the black power ranger (Watkins) is the team standout with 8.5 sacks, while the pink power ranger, skirt and all, (Lawrence) has 6.5 sacks as a true freshman interior lineman.
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Having those individual stars like Lawson and Dodd is nice, but the Tigers might be better equipped to handle Alabama's rushing attack this year because of how deep they are up front and at linebacker.
Alabama proved against Washington that it's not afraid to hide Hurts without suffering any sort of drop in production on offense.
The Crimson Tide may have to use the passing game more often because Clemson looks more potent offensively than Washington but when the fourth quarter arrives, they are going to feed Scarbrough as much as possible.
It will be up to Clemson's players in the trenches to make sure Scarbrough isn't breaking through that first wave, which will also allow the linebackers to get in on the action and bring him down.
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