Fiesta Bowl Betting: Ohio State vs. Clemson Odds, Analysis and Pick

The Clemson Tigers are 5-3 straight up and 6-2 against the spread in eight postseason games under coach Dabo Swinney. The Ohio State Buckeyes are 4-2 both SU and ATS in six postseason games under coach Urban Meyer. In the second of the two New Year's Eve College Football Playoff national semifinals, the Tigers battle the Buckeyes in the Fiesta Bowl.

Fiesta Bowl point spread: The Buckeyes opened as 3-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via OddsShark computer: 36.6-35.6 Buckeyes. (College football picks on every game)

Why the Ohio State Buckeyes can cover the spread

The Buckeyes didn't win the Big Ten this season; they didn't even win their division. But after coming one of those "kick-sixes" away from going 12-0, Ohio State is in college football's version of the Final Four for the second time in three seasons.

OSU completed its season with that crazy 27-24 victory over rival Michigan. The Buckeyes trailed the Wolverines at the half 17-7, forced overtime on a Tyler Durbin field goal on the final play of regulation, then won it on a Curtis Samuel touchdown run in the bottom of the second extra period.

The Buckeyes outgained Michigan 330-310, outrushed the Wolverines 206-91 and won the turnover battle 3-1.

So Ohio State is 5-0 since suffering that upset loss at Penn State back in October, and they should have won that game too.

Why the Clemson Tigers can cover the spread

Clemson is 3-0 since suffering its only loss of the season, that upset against Pittsburgh on a field goal at the buzzer. The Tigers then defeated Wake Forest 35-13, South Carolina 56-7 and then outlasted Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game 42-35. So Clemson is back in the CFP for the second year in a row.

The Tigers grabbed a quick 14-0 lead on the Hokies and never led by less than seven points after that. They took their largest lead at 35-14 late in the third quarter, let Tech get within one score late, but they still hung on. On the night, Clemson outgained Virginia Tech 470-386 and won the ground battle 182-102. Meanwhile, quarterback Deshaun Watson accounted for five touchdowns.

The Tigers are now 30-3 SU and 19-13-1 ATS with Watson as their starting quarterback.

Smart pick

Clemson owns an edge on offense, thanks to Watson, but Ohio State owns an edge on defense. Also, the Tigers had to play a conference championship game, while the Buckeyes did not, and that extra week off has worked to the advantage of others in the past. The smart money here sides with Ohio State.

Betting trends

Ohio State is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games.

The total has gone over in Ohio State's last three games against teams with winning records.

Clemson is 1-5 ATS in its last six games against teams with winning records.

All college football lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted.

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