Bowl Projections 2016: CFP Predictions After Week 12 AP Poll Release

Week 11 within the College Football Playoff committee's Top Four was the definition of anarchy, with three of its teams going down on Saturday. 

First, Chris Blewitt's 48-yard field goal with six seconds left lifted Pittsburgh over Clemson 43-42, snapping the Tigers' 46-game win streak against unranked teams, according to ESPN.com. 

Shorty after Clemson went down, Michigan also lost in the final seconds on a field goal. It came at the hands of another unranked program in Iowa, with freshman Keith Duncan hitting a 33-yarder as time expired to give the Hawkeyes a 14-13 victory. 

Washington capped off the night with a 26-13 loss to the surging No. 20 USC Trojans, who have now won six straight games after a 1-3 start. 

Clemson dropped from No. 2 to No. 5, Michigan from No. 3 to No. 4 and Washington from No. 4 to No. 7. 

While the CFP committee won't release its rankings until Tuesday at 9 p.m. ET, college football got a good idea of how its Top Four might shape up when the AP Top 25 poll dropped on Sunday:

CFP Projections

Just four weeks remain until bowl season, but it isn't too early to project who will be contending for a national championship come January:

Bowl Game	Date	Team	Team
Peach Bowl/CFP Semifinal	Dec. 31	No. 1 Alabama	No. 4 Louisville
Fiesta Bowl/CFP Semifinal	Dec. 31	No. 2 Clemson	No. 3 Ohio State

Alabama

Amid the chaos, one thing remained consistent: No. 1 Alabama's dominance. The Crimson Tide recorded a 51-3 rout over a Mississippi State team that upset then-No. 4 Texas A&M a week ago. 

Alabama continues to be a juggernaut at 10-0 this season, including an impressive average margin of victory of 29 points. 

It has been able to build such a number due to a defense that is allowing just 12.2 points per game, which ranks second-best in the the nation. 

In its final two games, Alabama will take on Chattanooga and No. 18 Auburn, a team it's lost to just twice in the past eight years. 

Clemson

Despite its loss to Pittsburgh, Clemson's victory over No. 3 Louisville earlier in the season all but ensures that it will be back in the Top Four. 

The Tigers are just one of nine one-loss teams in the nation—the others being Michigan, Washington, Boise State, Louisville, Ohio State, San Diego State, Troy and West Virginia. 

It's unlikely that "Group of Five" teams like Boise State, San Diego State, Troy and an undefeated Western Michigan will get CFP consideration, so they won't be a factor. 

If Clemson can win its remaining games, which include matchups against unranked programs in Wake Forest and South Carolina, along with the ACC Championship Game, it will outweigh Washington in the Pac-12 and West Virginia in the Big 12. 

A conference title would also put the Tigers ahead of the likes of Ohio State, which could make it to the semifinals despite a slim chance of making its conference championship game. 

Ohio State

Ohio State is on a precarious perch heading into its final two games of the season.

Michigan's loss to Iowa created a three-way tie atop the Big Ten East standings with the Buckeyes and Penn State, which handed Ohio State its only loss this year.

That gives Penn State a tiebreaker over the Buckeyes should the two programs finish even at the end of the season. 

So if Penn State wins out, even if Ohio State defeats Michigan on Nov. 26, the Nittany Lions will be playing for the Big Ten title. 

Ohio State should defeat Michigan State before it plays Michigan, a team that it's beaten 14 of the last 16 times. 

Both of those losses came in the Big House at Michigan. In fact, the last time Ohio State lost to the Wolverines at home was in 2000. 

For a team with big-game experience that has finished in the nation's Top Five in three of the past four years, Ohio State will be hard-pressed to go down in its final regular-season game of the season against the Wolverines. 

If the Buckeyes can finish 11-1 with four Top 15 wins, it would be difficult to keep them out, even without a conference title in hand. 

Louisville

There is a good chance that a two-loss Penn State could win the Big Ten and still not make the semifinals because of Louisville. 

Had it not been for their loss against Clemson earlier in the season, the Cardinals would have controlled the ACC while challenging for the No. 1 ranking in the nation. 

But even with one loss, Louisville is still one of the premier teams in the nation, thanks to its dynamic quarterback, Lamar Jackson, who leads the nation's best scoring attack which averages 49.6 points per game. 

Combine that with a defense giving up just 20.3 points per game, and Louisville looks poised to breeze past Houston and Kentucky to finish the season at 11-1, which would be difficult for the committee to keep outside of the Top Five. 

Stats courtesy of ESPN.com.