Michigan vs. Michigan State: Game Preview, Prediction and Players to Watch
The Michigan Wolverines and Michigan State Spartans—two teams on wildly opposite ends of the college football spectrum—will square off Saturday, Oct. 29, in their annual rivalry clash.
And what a strange outlook we have for this one.
According to Odds Shark, the second-ranked Wolverines (8-0, 4-0 Big Ten) opened as 21-point favorites. Considering the performance of both teams, that's not a surprise.
But Michigan State (2-5, 0-4) has earned seven of the last eight victories in the series. While Sparty's run of dominance may come to a crashing halt, it would like nothing more than to complicate Michigan's championship dreams.
Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET and will be televised on ESPN.
Michigan Keys to Victory
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Be Able to Convert on the Ground
Although both offenses will attempt to establish the running game, that might not happen for either team. The key is converting short-yardage situations to keep the rushing attack relevant, which opens up an important part of Michigan's offense.
Wilton Speight doesn't take many downfield chances, but he's more willing to try off play action. And in last week's win over Illinois, Speight had his most accurate game of the season. Confidence won't be a problem with the sophomore.
However, if MSU can earn control of the trenches without devoting extra bodies up front, it'll relieve some pressure on a coverage unit that has struggled during the Spartans' five-game losing streak.
Force 3rd-and-Long
No matter who's been under center for Michigan State, its offense has struggled to move the chains on third down. It ranks 90th in the Football Bowl Subdivision with a 37.1 conversion rate.
Michigan's defense is great at getting off the field, too. The Wolverines have allowed just 12 conversions in 92 attempts (13 percent).
The Spartans have enough trouble sustaining possessions. Consistently facing 3rd-and-long situations will only make it tougher.
Michigan State Keys to Victory
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Don't Get Stuffed Running Up the Middle
Here's your "easier said than done" objective of the week: run between the tackles on Michigan. This season, the Wolverines have owned the middle of the trenches defensively.
Every so often, a team has broken an outside run. Central Florida, Wisconsin, Penn State and Illinois found a running lane and attacked it, but those were just for one scattered snap. None of them could run up the gut.
While we know Michigan State will try to play power football, that doesn't mean it'll be successful. For the Spartans to pull off the upset, however, it needs to be.
Hold Michigan to Field Goals
Michigan State has several glaring problems, and poor red-zone defense is near the top of the list.
In seven games, the Spartans have allowed 26 drives to reach the 20-yard line. That's not great, but it's not terrible either. But surrendering a touchdown on 19 of those possessions—a 73.1 rate that ranks 117th of 128 teams—is horrendous.
Unless MSU can reverse the ugly trend, the Wolverines will start pulling away early. And the Spartans likely aren't built for a comeback.
Michigan Players to Watch
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Jehu Chesson, Wide Receiver
So far this season, Jehu Chesson has been quiet. Too quiet.
After amassing 50 receptions, 764 yards and nine scores last year, he's managed just 18 catches for 275 yards and one trip to the end zone. Could there be another breakout stretch on the horizon?
Chesson ended 2015 on a torrid run—all nine touchdowns came in the final six games—but it started with a season-best performance (four catches, 58 yards) against Michigan State.
Jabrill Peppers, Outside Linebacker/Running Back/Etc.
Michigan is starting to unleash Jabrill Peppers. He only totaled two offensive touches during the first five games, but the versatile standout posted eight carries and one reception in the last two outings.
Assuredly, the coaching staff has more tricks for Peppers than serving as the Wildcat quarterback. Although we haven't seen those tricks, they're coming—perhaps for a rivalry game.
Peppers' flashy defensive numbers (both tackles for loss and sacks) have dipped lately, but his blitzes may be a problem for an average Michigan State offensive line.
Michigan State Players to Watch
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Brian Lewerke, Quarterback
Michigan State will probably use a two-quarterback system if O'Connor is healthy, but Lewerke should hold the largest role.
The redshirt freshman's inexperience has showed in the last two games. "Too many quarterback scrambles," head coach Mark Dantonio said, per Kyle Austin of MLive. "He's got to throw it down the field."
Against Michigan's aggressive defense, a quarterback must be prepared to buy time. But if Lewerke has happy feet, it's likely a good portion of his snaps will end in forced passes or throwaways.
Malik McDowell, Defensive Line
At the end of 2016, Malik McDowell is probably headed to the pros. If healthy, he's a surefire first-round NFL draft pick.
Put simply, enjoy him while you can. The junior will move around the defensive line, playing end or tackle depending on the situation. McDowell is a force, and Michigan's offensive line has been no better than average against top competition.
This season, McDowell has 32 tackles with five stops for loss, including 1.5 sacks—both of which were in the last two games.
What They're Saying
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Michigan
The 2015 meeting ended in stunning fashion. All Michigan needed to seal the victory was a clean punt, but Blake O'Neill dropped the ball, and the Spartans returned it for a touchdown as time expired.
Mark Snyder of the Detroit Free Press noted that starting safety Dymonte Thomas is eager for the chance to remove the bad taste: "I was on the field when that play happened, and I couldn't believe what took place. We had that bye week after, and during that whole bye week that was the only thing I could think about. I couldn't think about anything else. I just couldn't wait to get revenge."
Michigan State
Snapping a five-game losing streak while taking on the No. 2 team in the country will be challenging. But Dantonio hopes the team's chemistry will allow them to rebound from the brutal stretch, according to Chris Solari of the Free Press:
"No question it's challenging. I don't think there's any question. But again, if we all take responsibility, the chemistry stays. I think we're trying to do that. ... We need to stay together, and we need to understand that we lost the football game, not one specific person. We lost the football game. If we can at least all accept responsibility in that, then I think we all move forward.
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Prediction
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"Throw out the records and stats for this rivalry game."
Maybe it will happen. South Carolina seemingly had no business keeping up with Clemson in 2015, yet the eventual national runner-ups needed a fourth-quarter touchdown to seal the win.
But there's just no evidence the Spartans can handle Michigan's defense and play enough of their own to spring an upset. In three home games against Wisconsin, BYU and Northwestern, Michigan State surrendered an average of 41.7 points.
Dantonio's team can hang around thanks to home-field advantage and the motivation of a rivalry, but the Wolverines will make life miserable for an inexperienced Lewerke and roll to 8-0.
Prediction: Michigan 34, Michigan State 10
All recruiting information via Scout. Stats from CFBStats.com or B/R research. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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