USC vs. Alabama: Game Preview, Prediction and Players to Watch
When Alabama and the University of Southern California get together on a football field, history is often made.
That history has often shaped the national championship picture, if not a whole lot more.
Granted, the two juggernauts—the Crimson Tide claim 16 national championships, and the Trojans have 11—have only played seven times over the years and have not seen each other since the 1985 Sun Bowl, but their head-to-head battles include the following:
- The 1946 Rose Bowl, which was the last played before the PCC-Big Nine agreement. The Trojans had won eight straight Rose Bowls dating back to 1923. Led by legendary quarterback Harry Gilmer, Alabama outgained USC 351-41 en route to a 34-14 rout. USC didn’t make a first down until the third quarter, when the score was 27–0.
- In part to help ease the transition to integration, legendary Alabama coach Paul "Bear" Bryant scheduled a home-and-home with USC, with the Trojans first visiting Legion Field in 1970. Trojans halfback Sam Cunningham rushed for 135 yards and two touchdowns to lead USC to a 42-21 victory. Assistant coach Jerry Claiborne famously said of the contest, "Sam Cunningham did more to integrate Alabama in 60 minutes than Martin Luther King did in 20 years."
- For the return trip, Bryant installed the wishbone offense and swore everyone, including reporters, to secrecy before the 1971 season opener. The heavily favored Trojans were caught unaware. Visiting Alabama scored two early touchdowns and held on for a 17-10 victory. Bryant was eventually named coach of the year, and the season helped spark his second dynasty with the Crimson Tide.
- In 1978, Alabama lost an early-season meeting with Southern California 24-14 but clawed its way back into the national title picture despite playing a brutal schedule, including Nebraska, Missouri, Washington and Virginia Tech. Led by its defense, Alabama ran the table the rest of the way and won the No. 1 vs. No. 2 meeting against Penn State in the Sugar Bowl, only to see the Trojans jump the Crimson Tide in the coaches’ poll for a split national championship.
What makes this particular meeting stand out is that it might be the marquee game of what’s being hailed as the best opening weekend in college football history, with Alabama the preseason No. 1 team in the Associated Press Top 25 and USC ranked 20th (No. 17 in the coaches’ poll). On paper, they might be the two most talented teams in the nation.
However, whereas Alabama is used to big games like this, having played twice at A&T Stadium last season, USC hasn’t played in the Dallas area in 21 years. It also hasn’t faced an SEC team in 10 years or defeated a team ranked No. 1 since 1984, losing five straight.
Date: Sept. 3
Time: 7 p.m. CT
Place: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
TV: ABC
Radio: ESPN Radio, Crimson Tide Sports Network, ESPNLA 710 Radio, Sirius XM 84, 113, 190
Spread: Alabama -11.5, according to Odds Shark
USC Keys to Victory
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Don’t lose in the trenches
If USC can’t match Alabama on the lines, its chances of winning are almost none.
The Trojans’ offensive line is thought to be a real strength, as Phil Steele’s 2016 College Football Preview rated it as being the best in the nation, and its 131 career starts among returning players are tied for second.
However, he also had Alabama’s defensive line rated first. USC senior tackles Chad Wheeler and Zach Banner will have their hands full with Alabama’s defensive ends and pass-rushers, including Jonathan Allen.
Led by senior Justin Davis and sophomore Ronald Jones II, USC has a good stable of running backs, and they’ll need a big game in order to keep the pressure off their quarterback.
On the flip side, USC’s defensive line has good size, but the five starters from last year are all gone. With the Trojans playing a 3-4, look for Alabama to try to establish the run early.
Nullify Alabama’s weapons
Alabama is so loaded at the playmaker spots that it has a wide receiver with a 1,000-yard season last year (Gehrig Dieter with Bowling Green) listed as a reserve. In addition to wide receivers Calvin Ridley, Robert Foster and ArDarius Stewart, there’s also senior tight end O.J. Howard, who had 208 receiving yards against Clemson in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game.
“I don’t know about [being] more pass-heavy,” Howard said. “I think we’ll do a lot more trying to keep the defense on their toes.
“We’ll have a chance to take shots, like even starting off early in the game, and I think that’ll be helpful for us with so much potential and so much talent that we have on the offensive side of the ball. I think that’s something different we’ll change up.”
Leading USC’s secondary is junior cornerback Adoree' Jackson, who will also line up at wide receiver and as a returner. To give an idea of his athletic ability, Jackson is the reigning two-time Pac-12 champion in the long jump and placed fifth at the NCAA finals last spring.
Don’t get beat on special teams
USC has a new punter, kicker (although Matt Boermeester did get some chances last season) and holder, with senior long snapper Zach Smith the only returning specialist.
Alabama has returning veterans at all of those spots.
Last year, Alabama scored 10 touchdowns off returns, including four off punt returns and one from a blocked punt.
USC ranked among the bottom 25 teams in kick returns, punting and punt-return defense, so it may be an area that the Crimson Tide can exploit.
Alabama Keys to Victory
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Quarterback Play
For the third straight year, Alabama’s quarterback competition will continue into the regular season, with head coach Nick Saban announcing on Monday that junior Cooper Bateman and redshirt freshman Blake Barnett would be the ones preparing to face USC.
He didn’t name a starter—it’ll likely be Bateman—and no one would be surprised to see both quarterbacks play in the game. Saban said he’s still open to playing true freshman Jalen Hurts, who has “a tremendous future” after he learns the offense more.
“I don't think any of us are satisfied with any part of our team right now in terms of trying to continue to improve and develop, and certainly quarterback’s not any different,” Saban said. “The quarterbacks themselves probably would tell you the same thing.”
Can Alabama run on USC?
Although Alabama made a late switch on the offensive line, with junior Bradley Bozeman swapping spots with sophomore Ross Pierschbacher (they’ll line up at center and right guard, respectively), the bigger concern is the backfield.
The Crimson Tide’s most experienced running backs are sophomores, and there’s not a lot of depth.
“We've always played two guys here,” Saban said. “The two guys that we'll play in this game are Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris. They're the guys that have been in the program longest, and they've had the best camps.”
Look for true freshmen B.J. Emmons and Joshua Jacobs to be in the mix soon, and they could see the field against USC if there’s an injury or Alabama gets a significant lead.
Avoid distractions
While Alabama fans aren’t too thrilled about playing another game in Dallas after having two at AT&T Stadium last year, there’s a lot that could trip up the team.
For example, there’s the potential distraction of offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin facing his former team, although in this case, it could be helpful, as he recruited most of USC's veteran players and hired a lot of the coaching staff, including head coach Clay Helton.
The reigning national champions have 11 new starters, including true freshman Jonah Williams, who was recruited out of California, at right tackle. He’s one of 13 freshmen listed on Alabama’s Week 1 depth chart.
But as the Crimson Tide players like to say, these are the kinds of games they signed up to play.
“We get to see where we are at as far as a team right now, playing on a big stage in front of millions on the TV and stuff like that,” Pierschbacher said. “It’s really fun, and there’s a lot to look forward to.”
USC Players to Watch
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JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR
Between Smith-Schuster and Ridley, the two best wide receivers in college football might be featured in this game (Steele had both listed as preseason All-Americans alongside Clemson’s Mike Williams).
Last season, Smith-Schuster led the Trojans with 1,454 yards on 89 receptions and 10 touchdowns, although that was with a different quarterback.
“Definitely heard a lot about JuJu,” Alabama sophomore cornerback Marlon Humphrey said. “He’s the No. 1 receiver. I’ve watched his film. Big guy, and he adjusts to the ball probably the best I’ve ever seen. There’s definitely a reason why he’s up there as one of the highest-rated receivers.
“Going into this game, I’m just going to have to cut him off and try to make a play on the ball. They want to throw the ball deep. I think he gets 70 percent of the targets, so he’s definitely the one they are going to, so we are going to have to be aware of where he’s at on the field.”
Max Browne, QB
It won’t be easy trying to replace three-year starter Cody Kessler, but Browne has the advantage of having eight returning starters on offense (plus one who moved to defense). The junior is about as experienced as Bateman is for Alabama, having completed 11 of 19 passes for 143 yards for his career, and beat out freshmen Sam Darnold and Matt Fink for the job.
Browne, listed at 6’5” and 220 pounds, was the 2012 Gatorade National Football Player of the Year before Kiffin recruited him to USC, meaning one of the coaches who knows him best will be on the opposing sideline.
He has a big arm, and Helton likes his poise, but a key will be how much time he has to throw. Browne will be a big target for Alabama’s pass-rushers.
Cameron Smith, MLB
A late-season knee injury sidelined Smith in 2015, but he takes over for Anthony Sarao as USC’s man in the middle. The Pac-12’s Defensive Freshman of the Year was still credited with 78 tackles and a sack, and he led the Trojans with three interceptions.
He’ll be crucial in trying to keep Alabama from establishing its interior running game, as senior interior linebacker Michael Hutchings will be making just his third career start. As a reserve last season, he was credited with just 13 tackles, and a lot of his 52 career tackles have been on special teams.
USC was 41st in the nation against the run last season, giving up 149.3 yards per game. Alabama was first in the category at 75.7.
Alabama Players to Watch
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Cooper Bateman and Blake Barnett, QB
It’ll be interesting to see how Alabama uses its quarterbacks, as Bateman is considered more of a read-option player, while Barnett is a pro-style passer and has a better arm.
“I think the big thing [is] Cooper has a great knowledge of the offense,” Saban said. “Really manages things well when he's out there because of his knowledge and experience. I think he's continued to improve his passing ability, and we have a lot of confidence in him. We feel good about the progress he's made.”
If Alabama wants to confuse the Trojans, it might insert Hurts, who is a dual-threat QB, but Saban indicated on Monday that the freshman's ability to manage the team is the key to getting more playing time.
Regardless, a lot figures to be dictated by what’s happening in the game.
The pass-rushers
Alabama’s outside linebackers Ryan Anderson and Tim Williams can be a nightmare to block, and look for Rashaan Evans to line up with them in obvious pass-rushing situations. Not only do they all have great first steps, but they also can quickly close.
“It’s kinda hard to game-plan when you have Tim Williams on the other side and Dalvin [Tomlinson] and Ryan Anderson,” Allen said. “They can game-plan all they want.”
In other words, good luck trying to stop everyone, and one has to think that new Crimson Tide defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt will want to set an aggressive tone. Alabama notched 53 sacks last season, which led the nation, and Allen believes this group has the potential to top that.
O.J. Howard, TE
At the end of last season, Saban said that Alabama didn’t do enough to get Howard the ball until the national championship. Look for him to get more involved in the passing game early on, although in this game, his blocking will also be important.
“They have really good linebackers,” Howard said of USC. “Those two guys feel the hole really fast, they know where the ball is at all times and they do a great job of using their hands when they're inside the run game. Those two guys, they've really stuck out a lot to me on film this week.”
A potential matchup to watch for is if Alabama can get the 6'6" Howard on 5'11" safety Chris Hawkins, who was limited in the spring after having ankle surgery.
What They’re Saying
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Saban on opening the season
“We're excited for game week. I know our players are excited as well to have the opportunity to play a great program with a great tradition like the University of Southern California. This is always sort of a bowl-like atmosphere when you play in these ... neutral-site games, which I know our players will be very excited about. Opening-game successes come from a more internal scoreboard in terms of 'Where are we relative to doing things that we need to do to play winning football?'
“Are we getting the kind of attention to detail, discipline, focus so that, when you sit down at the end of the day and you say, 'Regardless of what the score was—good, bad, indifferent—did I play to my standard? Did we play to our standard? Are we doing things relative to the standard that we have created for each individual player for my unit, for our units?'
“You measure yourself based on that, not what anybody else thinks or anybody else says. I think that's really, really important for our football players and our football team, especially at this point because there's no identity at all, regardless of what's been said, voted on or anything else. It means nothing in terms of what we need to try to create as an identity as a football team.”
Helton when announcing Browne his starting quarterback over Darnold, per USC's official site
"We believe that the competitive atmosphere that was put in place allowed both quarterbacks to progress as players. We also gained valuable knowledge on each quarterback’s skill sets that will allow us to better game plan this fall. Finally, we learned that these two men are extremely talented, ultra-competitive, and possess all the leadership intangibles that you must have at the position. It made for one of the toughest decisions in my college coaching career. This usually is the case when you have very talented individuals at the same position performing at a high level.
At this point, we feel that it is in the best interest of our football team to lean on the veteran experience that Max Browne has, so we have named him the starter going into our opening game against Alabama. With our experienced offensive line and the weapons at our skill positions, we as a staff are confident that Max’s ability will help guide a very successful offense.
"
Prediction
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USC went 8-6 last season despite having a mid-season coaching change, so this will be the biggest game the Trojans have had for a while. The Kiffin factor is the great unknown because he’s so familiar with the Trojans players and coaches, and there’s no telling what kind of intel he’s been providing the Crimson Tide.
The guess here is everything he knows and then some after being fired by USC in 2013.
Despite playing numerous big-name opponents in neutral-site openers, Alabama is undefeated in Week 1 since Saban arrived in 2007. Look for the Crimson Tide to make it 10 straight.
Prediction: Alabama 30, USC 17
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
Christopher Walsh is a lead SEC college football writer. Follow Christopher on Twitter @WritingWalsh.
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