NCAA Football Rankings 2016: Analysis for Latest Polls Before Week 1

The 2016 college football season kicked off Friday in Australia, but the main event starts next Saturday with one of the most amazing Week 1 lineups in the sport's long history.

There are four matchups pitting Top 25 teams against one another, and that doesn't even include the No. 2-ranked Clemson Tigers visiting the Auburn Tigers, the No. 10-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish playing the Texas Longhorns and the No. 5-ranked LSU Tigers going against the Wisconsin Badgers. 

In other words, don't expect next week's polls to look anything like they did coming out of the preseason.

Top 25 Polls

Rank	AP Top 25	Amway Coaches Poll
1	Alabama	Alabama
2	Clemson	Clemson
3	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
4	Florida State	Florida State
5	LSU	Ohio State
6	Ohio State	LSU
7	Michigan	Stanford
8	Stanford	Michigan
9	Tennessee	Notre Dame
10	Notre Dame	Tennessee
11	Mississippi	Michigan State
12	Michigan State	Mississippi
13	TCU	Houston
14	Washington	TCU
15	Houston	Iowa
16	UCLA	Georgia
17	Iowa	USC
18	Georgia	Washington
19	Louisville	Oklahoma State
20	USC	North Carolina
21	Oklahoma State	Baylor
22	North Carolina	Oregon
23	Baylor	Louisville
24	Oregon	UCLA
25	Florida	Florida

Most Vulnerable Top 5 Team: No. 4 Florida State

Mark Wallheiser/Associated Press

The only Top Five team that appears to have a comfortable Week 1 is Clemson, though a prime-time road contest against Auburn won't be an automatic win.

Florida State will begin the season with the most difficult test among teams ranked in the Top Five: a showdown against No. 11 Mississippi in Orlando, Florida.

Both teams are replacing elite talent such as Jalen Ramsey, Laremy Tunsil and Robert Nkemdiche, who were first-round NFL draft picks.

That's not to suggest the cupboard is bare on either side. Both teams finished in the top six in 247Sports' recruiting composite team rankings this year.

Florida State has to find an answer at quarterback if it wants to be in the elite crop of teams this season. Deondre Francois will get the first crack at taking over the starting gig, though he seemingly backed into the job when Sean Maguire suffered a broken bone in his foot earlier in August. 

Seminoles head coach Jimbo Fisher believes Francois has the tools to be a smart and efficient quarterback, per Safid Deen of the Orlando Sentinel: "He makes the big plays, but he protects the ball at the same time."

Jameis Winston, for all of his positives as Florida State's quarterback, wasn't always a mistake-free player. His raw talent was vastly superior to Francois', however.

Francois has one of the nation's best safety nets in running back Dalvin Cook. The Heisman Trophy hopeful is coming off a season in which he recorded 1,691 yards and 19 touchdowns. He did that despite missing one game with an injury.

Daniel Paulling of the Clarion-Ledger noted how Ole Miss' defense fared against top running backs last season:

"

[Derrick] Henry rushed for 127 yards on 23 carries, an average of 5.5 yards per attempt that was slightly below his season mark of 5.6 yards, during the Crimson Tide’s Week 3 game against Ole Miss. The Rebels were one of five Power 5 schools to limit him to just one touchdown.

[Leonard] Fournette struggled against the Rebels — relatively speaking.

He collected 108 yards on 25 carries, but his 4.3 yards per carry was well below his season average of 6.1. The Rebels were the only team to hold Fournette scoreless last fall.

"

Mississippi's defensive game plan will force Francois to beat the Rebels.

Ole Miss, on the other hand, has a stable quarterback situation, with Chad Kelly returning after throwing for 4,042 yards and 31 touchdowns last season.

Florida State has the defense to win the national title, but Francois' development will determine the team's ceiling. Starting the season against a top-tier SEC team is an excellent way to throw him into the deep end, even if the result doesn't go the Seminoles' way.

Alabama Remains Loaded

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Alabama is also facing quarterback questions. Head coach Nick Saban, who loves playing it close to the chest, has not announced who will start Saturday's game against Southern California.

Quarterback concerns are nothing new for Saban. The Crimson Tide won the national title last year with Jake Coker throwing the ball only 393 times. Meanwhile, Heisman-winning workhorse Derrick Henry carried the ball 395 times.

While Coker and Henry are gone, the team still has a stacked offensive line, and wide receiver Calvin Ridley will make plays on the outside.

But make no mistake: Alabama is going to rise or fall on the strength of its defense. 

ESPN's Phil Savage made a bold statement about the Crimson Tide when he saw them practice last week:

It's hard to imagine Saban continuing to find ways to improve his defense, especially coming off a season in which the team finished third in sacks, yards allowed and points allowed per game. 

But there's a reason this is the gold-standard program in college football: Saban recruits high-end talent and depth better than anyone else in the nation.

UCLA's Breakthrough Season

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

UCLA had high preseason expectations in each of the previous two years, being ranked in the Top 15 by the Associated Press, but the team came up short both times.

The Bruins were starting a true freshman at quarterback last season. As talented as Josh Rosen is, there's almost always a steep learning curve for a player that young, especially when he's acclimating to a Power Five conference.

This season, while there are still high expectations for the Bruins, they are starting the year outside the AP's Top 15 and barely cracked the Amway Coaches Poll.

The Bruins' opener against Texas A&M will be critical for the team, which has made substantial changes, as Kyle Bonagura of ESPN.com noted:

"

The offense has ditched the spread up-tempo offense former coordinator Noel Mazzone preferred in favor of a somewhat multiple attack under Kennedy Polamalu. It's a better fit for the Bruins' personnel -- specifically Rosen -- and was done in part to help the defense become better suited to go up against power teams such as Stanford.

"

The schedule is not kind to start the season. After the opener, matchups against BYU and Stanford could have UCLA staring at three losses before September ends. 

The Bruins can't afford another slow start if they want to make a move in the Pac-12. After the difficult opening stretch, the schedule will lighten up, and they will avoid Oregon and Washington in conference play.

UCLA's opener will go a long way toward determining how high or low the Bruins go in 2016.