Preseason College Football Rankings 2016: Predicting AP Top 25 After Amway Poll

The 2016 college football season marks the 80th year of the Associated Press poll. In celebration of that accomplishment, the AP revealed its top 100 programs in history.

At the top were few surprises: Ohio State, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Alabama and USC comprised the Top Five—a shock to exactly no one who has followed the sport. If the release of the preseason Amway Coaches poll is any indication, those schools shouldn't find themselves very far from the top when the AP releases its first rankings of 2016.

The coaches gave Alabama 55 of a possible 64 first-place votes, leaving the defending champs as the runaway favorite to go back-to-back. National runner-up Clemson sits in second place and is the only other program to get multiple first-place votes. Oklahoma, Florida State and Ohio State round out the Top Five.

Ranking	Team	Points	First-Place Votes
1	Alabama	1585	55
2	Clemson	1524	7
3	Oklahoma	1398	0
4	Florida State	1351	1
5	Ohio State	1321	0
6	Louisiana State	1241	0
7	Stanford	1149	0
8	Michigan	1062	0
9	Notre Dame	1034	0
10	Tennessee	960	1
11	Michigan State	901	0
12	Mississippi	792	0
13	Houston	668	0
14	Texas Christian	649	0
15	Iowa	579	0
16	Georgia	525	0
17	Southern California	468	0
18	Washington	454	0
19	Oklahoma State	426	0
20	North Carolina	422	0
21	Baylor	383	0
22	Oregon	361	0
23	Louisville	331	0
24	UCLA	296	0
25	Florida	245	0

Notre Dame (ninth) and USC (17th) are also in the mix.

Despite having different voters from different professions—the Amway poll uses coaches, while the AP is done by the media—preseason polls tend to be rather similar. The AP and Amway polls shared the same Top 14 teams last season, only in a slightly different order. Their top fours were the same, and there was not a single deviation of more than two spots.

On an even larger scale: All 25 teams were the same. There was not a single outlier selection between the two polls. 

If you believe that's a one-year anomaly, the data says otherwise. In 2014, there were only 26 teams who got Top 25 billing between the two polls. There was not a single deviation of more than one spot until a swap of Texas for Missouri at No. 24. In 2013, 18 of the 25 rankings were exactly the same. The 2012 preseason poll was the last time we had any real marked differences, when no one could quite decide between USC, LSU and Alabama.

Even then, after the top three, the polls did not have a single deviation until No. 16.

Case in point: If you're waiting for the AP poll to consider the college football season started, don't. You have basically already seen it.

Alabama will deservedly return to its perch atop the landscape, likely by a huge margin. The Crimson Tide return only 11 starters from last year's national title team, but they're an important 11.

Wide receivers Calvin Ridley and ArDarius Stewart should help open up the passing game, a necessity following the departure of Heisman winner Derrick Henry. Linebacker Reuben Foster seems destined to step in as a true superstar and anchor of the Tide defense. Safety Eddie Jackson should step in as the leader of the secondary and help Foster in a leadership role.

“Obviously every team in college going into the year wants to win a national championship,” defensive end Jonathan Allen told reporters at SEC media days. “That’s the goal. If you’re not trying to win it, I don’t know why you’re here. But you don’t focus on that. You’ve got to focus on what you’ve got to do to get there.”

Clemson will sit second thanks in large part to Deshaun Watson, considered one of the frontrunners for the Heisman and a potential top overall pick for the NFL. Watson threw for 4,104 yards and 35 touchdowns against 13 interceptions, adding another 1,105 yards and 12 scores on the ground. 

Ranking	Team
1	Alabama
2	Clemson
3	Florida State
4	Oklahoma
5	Ohio State
6	LSU
7	Michigan
8	Stanford
9	Notre Dame
10	Michigan State
11	Tennessee
12	Ole Miss
13	TCU
14	Houston
15	Georgia
16	Iowa
17	USC
18	Washington
19	Oklahoma State
20	North Carolina
21	Oregon
22	Bayor
23	UCLA
24	Florida
25	Louisville

“Deshaun is one of those quarterbacks who come ’round every few years. A great player,” Florida State running back Dalvin Cook said, per Ava Wallace of the Washington Post. “Make plays that you don’t see on a daily basis. He’s one of those nightmares that defensive coordinators stay up at night for. He’s a great player. Great guy, too.”

Clemson brings back nine starters on what should be the best offense in the country. The Tigers' problem might be their defense. Only two starters return from a 2015 squad that finished fourth in Football Outsiders' defensive rankings. It was a defense that managed to keep up with the high-octane rate Watson and Co. were scoring with, though even those Tigers struggled toward the end of the season. Clemson allowed 30 or more points in three of its final four games, including 45 to Alabama in the title game.

The order of Florida State, Oklahoma and Ohio State may switch up, but there's a near-consensus Top Five heading into the campaign. Afterwards, there is a clear step down to the likes of LSU, Stanford and Michigan.