College Football Week 12 Predictions: Picking Top 25 Games Against the Spread
Week 12 is mostly a mixed bag of contenders playing cupcakes, former front-runners looking to rebound with quality victories, and dark horses trying to avoid those dreaded trap-game losses.
Oh, and then there's the game of the week—the defending national champion taking on its banged-up but still dangerous divisional rival.
But when you pick against the spread, there's always a tough call to make, even in the games that appear to be easy blowouts.
In Week 11, my first since taking over this column, I went a respectable 12-9 in Top 25 games. Now I'll look to keep that momentum rolling in a Saturday slate that was much more difficult for me to settle on than last week's list of matchups.
I'll try my best to explain this week's picks in the following slides using recent straight-up and against-the-spread trends as well as some statistical matchup breakdowns. Tell me your picks in the comments below, and remember, I don't hate your team.
I hate our common enemy—the line.
No. 12 North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech
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The Line: North Carolina (-6.5)
North Carolina is humming like a well-oiled machine right now, putting up 66 and 59 points, respectively, in its last two games. The Tar Heels defense is looking good, too, as it has only allowed more than 30 points twice this season.
Virginia Tech lost to the two teams North Carolina has most recently throttled, but a pick to the Tar Heels here goes a bit deeper than that. While their defense has held back-to-back opponents to fewer than 260 yards of total offense, better offenses such as Ohio State, ECU and Duke had no problem putting up bigger plays on the Hokies.
The Tar Heels definitely know how to hit big plays, as they are now ranked second nationally behind Baylor in yards per play. If it weren't for an error-filled opening-night loss to struggling South Carolina, North Carolina would be a serious playoff contender. The Heels are playing like one at the moment.
North Carolina has its sights set on securing a spot in the ACC Championship Game this weekend, while Virginia Tech is battling to become bowl-eligible. The Hokies will get a better shot at that next week against Virginia. It's hard not to keep riding the UNC wave, especially with just a 6.5-point spread.
The Pick: North Carolina (-6.5)
No. 14 Michigan vs. Penn State
2 of 11
The Line: Michigan (-4)
Michigan dodged disaster away from home last weekend against Indiana, pulling off a double-overtime win behind an excellent showing from quarterback Jake Rudock.
The Wolverines hit the road again this weekend as smaller favorites, with Penn State hosting Michigan at Beaver Stadium. The Nittany Lions have an inconsistent offense, but their defense can get into the backfield as well as anyone else in the country.
The matchup to watch in this one will be how Michigan's defense rebounds from last weekend's rough showing against Indiana. Penn State had found a new groove on offense before its 23-21 loss to Northwestern two weeks ago, and only time will tell if the off week helped that unit.
Although Michigan hasn't been firing on all cylinders away from home this season, Jim Harbaugh's team knows it can still win the Big Ten East if it takes care of business against Penn State. The Nittany Lions won't be able to keep up with an offense that is reaching new heights with an in-form Rudock.
The Pick: Michigan (-4)
UCLA vs. No. 18 Utah
3 of 11
Line: UCLA (-2)
Both teams are coming off heartbreaking losses in Pac-12 play. UCLA gave up a last-second touchdown to Washington State at home, while Utah lost in double overtime at an Arizona team that was struggling mightily heading into Week 11.
While Utah boasts the better record and home-field advantage, Las Vegas favors UCLA in this matchup. The experts out in the desert usually know what they're doing—they nailed USC being the favorite when a then-undefeated Utah traveled to the Coliseum earlier this season—but I'm not so sure about this one.
Utah is the healthier team right now and has been playing the better defense for the most part in the last few weeks. While the Utes are far from an offensive powerhouse, they should be able to control the ground game, and star running back Devontae Booker has posted three straight 100-yard performances.
The Utes can still get into the Pac-12 Championship Game, even after their loss to USC, if they win here and get some help. They have more to play for right now than UCLA and will be in front of their home fans. I like Utah straight up.
The Pick: Utah (+2)
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No. 17 LSU vs. No. 25 Ole Miss
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The Line: Ole Miss (-4)
This year's Magnolia Bowl had the potential for national championship implications, but LSU has fallen flat in back-to-back matchups, and Ole Miss hasn't been the same since its big loss to Florida in the Swamp.
LSU is looking like a mess right now, especially after Arkansas came into Death Valley and crushed the Tigers last Saturday. Leonard Fournette is nowhere near his Heisman-winning form behind a struggling offensive line, and the defense gave up nearly eight yards per play to Arkansas.
That's bad news for LSU on the road against Ole Miss, which, despite its faults, can still move the ball with the best of them. The Rebels averaged almost nine yards per play against Arkansas two weeks ago in a game that ended with a miraculous victory for the Razorbacks.
Ole Miss' defense doesn't have the same "Landshark" teeth this season, but its offense matches up well against a team in disarray. Don't be surprised if the team that ranked No. 2 nationally just a couple of weeks ago continues to struggle this Saturday in a rivalry game.
The Pick: Ole Miss (-4)
No. 20 Northwestern vs. No. 21 Wisconsin
5 of 11
The Line: Wisconsin (-11)
Behold, the matchup of what are most likely the quietest two-loss Power Five teams in the country. Northwestern was silenced last month with back-to-back blowout losses to Michigan and Iowa, while Wisconsin has won five straight after its earlier defeats to Alabama and Iowa.
Wisconsin is a double-digit favorite at home coming off a bye week, as Northwestern avoided a huge loss last weekend with a 21-14 victory over two-win Purdue. However, winning big hasn't been Wisconsin's style this season. It has only beaten Purdue and Rutgers by more than 11 during this winning streak.
Northwestern's offense has put up more than 28 points just once this season, but its defense is on such a roll right now that the low production hasn't hurt the Wildcats too much. In its last matchup, Wisconsin only put up 305 yards on lowly Maryland.
Wisconsin has been prone to win uglier, tighter Big Ten games this season, and Northwestern's defense is just the kind of unit that can make something like that happen. To me, this one will turn out to be much closer than the spread suggests.
The Pick: Northwestern (+11)
No. 9 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Ohio State
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The Line: Ohio State (-13)
It doesn't have the No. 1 vs. No. 2 implications some were dreaming about earlier this season, but undefeated Ohio State's home game against one-loss Michigan State is still the best and most intriguing matchup of Week 12. And the line for this one is downright evil.
Ohio State has been lighting it up on offense since J.T. Barrett took over the starting job, and the defense has held opponents to 14 or fewer points in its last four wins. However, this is the first ranked team the defending national champions have faced all season. This is their first big test—all the way in game No. 11.
Michigan State has been the team no one can figure out, with Sparty fluctuating among surviving, thriving and just plain diving in a road loss to struggling Nebraska. The Spartans have been able to battle through injuries time and time again this season, but quarterback Connor Cook's shoulder injury in last week's win against Maryland is a cause for some concern. (Cook has repeatedly said he will play and "feels good.")
If the Buckeyes perform like they're capable of doing inside the Horseshoe, then they should handle a Michigan State team that isn't quite at the same level as the team it beat by 12 last season in East Lansing. However, 13 points in a huge game feels like too much. I've gone back and forth on this one so many times, but I'll lean toward a Sparty cover here in a tighter OSU win.
The Pick: Michigan State (+13)
No. 19 Navy vs. Tulsa
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The Line: Navy (-11.5)
Navy quarterback Keenan Reynolds is now an all-time record holder, and he padded his numbers with some extra rushing touchdowns in a blowout win over SMU.
Look for that to be a theme in Navy's next matchup against Tulsa, another AAC opponent that has a hard time on the defensive side of the ball. The Golden Hurricane just allowed 266 rushing yards and five touchdowns to pass-happier Cincinnati, and five other opponents have cracked the 200-yard mark in that category this season.
Navy is a fantastic 7-2 against the spread this season, according to Odds Shark, while Tulsa is 0-4-1 ATS inside its home stadium. That record includes straight-up wins over some truly awful teams such as Louisiana-Monroe and UCF.
There's no reason to stop sailing this wave of momentum with the Midshipmen and a rushing attack that can put up a lot of big numbers. Navy covers here and sets up a massive showdown with Houston next weekend.
The Pick: Navy (-11.5)
No. 10 Baylor vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State
8 of 11
The Line: Even
With just a few weeks left in the regular season, Oklahoma State—yes, Oklahoma State—is the top dog in the wild Big 12. The Cowboys kept up their winning ways with a comeback victory over Iowa State, while their upcoming opponents from Baylor hit a wall at home against rival Oklahoma.
Baylor's offense is still excellent, but it just hasn't quite been the same since quarterback Seth Russell went down with an injury. The Bears only put up 485 yards in the game Russell went down in, and they followed it up with 522 against Kansas State and 416 against Oklahoma. Many teams would love that kind of production, but the Bears were well over 600 yards per game at the start of the season.
Oklahoma State's defense isn't as good as Oklahoma's this season, but the Cowboys are just as skilled as the Sooners at getting after the quarterback—which will be important against freshman Jarrett Stidham. Also, Oklahoma State has shown an ability to overcome early deficits time and time again this season and still come out with wins. The Cowboys have played a lot better at home than they have away from Stillwater.
This is an incredibly tough pick 'em, but I'm finally buying the Cowboys at home against a Baylor team that isn't firing on all cylinders right now.
The Pick: Oklahoma State
California vs. No. 15 Stanford
9 of 11
The Line: Stanford (-11)
Stanford, another Pac-12 favorite to take a close loss last weekend, must rebound in a home game against a California team that snapped its four-game losing streak with a rout of Oregon State.
Prior to the win over the Beavers, Cal's "Bear Raid" offense had put up 28 or fewer points in four straight losses to quality opponents—Utah, UCLA, USC and Oregon. The Golden Bears lost by 16 in two of those games away from home, and they gave up an unholy 777 yards in their loss to the Ducks.
The trend to watch in this game is how well Stanford does against the spread coming off losses. According to Odds Shark, the Cardinal are 8-1-1 ATS in the games immediately after their last 10 defeats. Not only does David Shaw's team bounce back, but it does it in a big-time way.
Cal got a chance to catch its breath last week against Oregon State, but a disciplined Stanford team should be ready to leave no doubt against its rival at home. The Cardinal wrap up the Pac-12 North with style this weekend.
The Pick: Stanford (-11)
No. 22 USC vs. No. 23 Oregon
10 of 11
The Line: Oregon (-4.5)
USC-Oregon has gone from preseason Pac-12 Game of the Year candidate to a matchup of underachievers in the middle of the season to what is now a prime-time contest between two teams looking to stay alive in their respective divisional races.
USC's streak of close games under interim head coach Clay Helton continued last Friday night against Colorado, when the Trojans needed a second-half rally to knock off the four-win Buffs. Now they'll have to face Oregon without linebackers Cameron Smith and Lamar Dawson, who suffered season-ending injuries against Colorado.
Oregon's offense has been on fire with a healthy Vernon Adams at quarterback, as the Ducks have put up seven, eight and nine yards per play, respectively, in their last three wins. Defensively, Oregon is doing a better job of forcing turnovers, but its overall numbers are still less than ideal for a matchup against a quarterback such as USC's Cody Kessler.
Both teams are playing well as of late, but I trust the high-powered Oregon offense more at home against a banged-up USC defense that has been prone to giving up big plays against conference opponents this season. The Ducks pull away late.
The Pick: Oregon (-4.5)
Other Top 25 Games
11 of 11
Florida Atlantic vs. No. 8 Florida (-31)
Florida hammered New Mexico State by 48 at the beginning of the season, back before anyone knew just how good the Gators were going to be. But Florida Atlantic's biggest loss this season was a 24-pointer to Miami in Week 2, and it's hard to believe the Gators offense will be able to score enough to cover that huge spread.
The Pick: Florida Atlantic (+31)
Purdue at No. 6 Iowa (-21)
Purdue is not a good football team by any means, and undefeated Iowa is looking to make it to the College Football Playoff. Still, the Boilermakers are 3-0 against this spread in Big Ten road games this season, and Iowa hasn't been big on style points at home. Purdue just covers here.
The Pick: Purdue (+21)
Wake Forest vs. No. 1 Clemson (-30)
Let's make it 3-of-3 with Top 10 teams and huge point spreads, shall we? Clemson should play much better this week than it showed against pesky Syracuse, but Wake Forest hasn't been in the business of getting blown out this season and just covered at Notre Dame. The Deacs do it again.
The Pick: Wake Forest (+30)
Boston College vs. No. 5 Notre Dame (-17)
This Shamrock Series game at Fenway Park looks like another chance for a big underdog to cover against a contender, right? Well, have you seen Boston College's offense this season? Notre Dame is coming off a great defensive performance and has more than enough firepower to take this one easily.
The Pick: Notre Dame (-17)
Colorado vs. No. 24 Washington State (-15)
Colorado nearly knocked off a Los Angeles team but came up short. The other time that happened to the Buffs this season, they got torched by 32 the next weekend by Stanford. Wazzu has found that groove offensively, and the Cougs will do enough to cover here, even after that emotional win over UCLA.
The Pick: Washington State (-15)
Note: There are no lines posted on Odds Shark for the two games between FCS teams and ranked FBS teams—Charleston Southern vs. No. 2 Alabama and Chattanooga vs. No. 14 Florida State.
Likewise, there are no early lines for No. 13 Houston vs. UConn and No. 11 TCU vs. No. 7 Oklahoma because of the injury statuses of Houston quarterback Greg Ward Jr. and TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin, respectively.
Top 25 rankings refer to the Associated Press poll. All spreads via Odds Shark. All historical spread info via TeamRankings.com. All betting percentages (which side has seen more action) via Sports Insights. All advanced stats via Football Study Hall or Football Outsiders.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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