Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Odds, Football Pick

North Carolina owns 22 victories in its last 25 football rivalry meetings with Duke, but the Blue Devils have won two of the last three meetings outright as underdogs. In a game that will help decide an ACC division title the Tar Heels host shell-shocked Duke Saturday afternoon in Chapel Hill.

Point spread: Tar Heels opened as eight-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 32.4-32.2 Blue Devils

Why the Duke Blue Devils can cover the spread

College football sees travesties of justice every now and then, but none worse than what Duke experienced last week, losing at Miami on a multiple-lateral, multiple-infraction, botched-call kickoff return for a score on the final play of the game. The biggest concern for the Blue Devils right now is their mental health after such a debacle.

Duke fell behind to the Hurricanes early 14-0, giving up one Miami score on a fumble in the end zone, but it battled back all day and finally took a 27-24 lead on a short Thomas Sirk touchdown run with just six seconds left on the clock. Then came the most egregious case of poor football officiating since the NFL's Fail Mary, and after a botched review the Devils discovered they had lost 30-27.

Duke outgained and outrushed the Hurricanes, and let's face it, should have won the game. Prior to that the Blue Devils had won four in a row, with three covers. At 3-1 in ACC play Duke isn't dead yet, but it needs a victory this week to stay alive in the divisional race.

Why the North Carolina Tar Heels can cover the spread

The Heels are one of the hottest teams in the country, with seven wins in a row, including five covers, after winning at Pitt last Thursday 26-19. Carolina spotted the Panthers an early field goal, then scored the game's next 20 points to take control. On the night the Heels outrushed and outgained Pitt, and rather easily covered as one-point road favorites.

Two weeks ago UNC beat Virginia 26-13, although it couldn't quite cover at 13 points. Before that the Heels walloped Wake Forest 50-14, covering 17 points and upset Georgia Tech outright in Atlanta 38-31, winning that game as six-point dogs.

At 4-0 in conference play, with a win over one contender and this home game against another, North Carolina owns the inside track in the race for the Coastal Division crown.

Smart pick

The Heels own an edge on offense, but the Blue Devils own the edge on defense. Also, Duke is 9-2 ATS its last 11 times out as an underdog. And college kids are usually pretty good about putting what happened last week behind them. Take the Dukies, plus the points.

Betting trends

North Carolina is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games after consecutive wins.

Duke is 3-17 SU in its last 20 games against North Carolina.

Duke is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games on the road.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.