One of the most critical players for Georgia in 2008 is QB Matthew Stafford.
Georgia’s running game will should be excellent thanks to Knowshon Moreno’s brilliance and the emergence of redshirt freshman Caleb King. At some point though, teams will stack the box to stop the running game and dare Stafford to beat them through the air.
Stafford has basically been a starter since he walked in the door at Georgia. He has finished 86th and 56th in the country in passing efficiency in his two years. Those aren’t terrible results for true freshman and sophomore years, but he finished behind and tied with UCF quarterbacks Steven Moffett and Kyle Israel. If you’ve watched any UCF football the past two seasons, you know that’s not a good sign.
I now present Stafford's production in 2007. I've ignored the Western Carolina game, since you don't learn anything about good I-A teams when they play bad I-AA teams, and the "expected" production is based off of the stats of each of his opponents. Values are rounded off to two decimal places, so they may not always add up, but I promise that Excel's not lying.
| Actual | Expected | |
|---|---|---|
| Completions | 180 | 230 |
| Attempts | 328 | 396 |
| Comp. Pct | 54.88% | 58.08% |
| Yards | 2349 | 2597 |
| Yards/Game | 195.75 | 216.42 |
| Yards/Comp. | 13.05 | 11.31 |
| Yards/Att. | 7.16 | 6.56 |
| TDs | 17 | 17 |
| TD Pct | 5.18% | 4.29% |
| INT | 10 | 13 |
| INT Pct | 3.05% | 3.28% |
Stafford was a little better at throwing touchdowns, avoiding interceptions, and gaining yards than the average quarterback given his schedule. He was not quite as accurate though, with a completion percentage about 3.20% below the expected figure. These stats also show that Georgia generally ran the ball more than the average offense that played against Stafford's slate of opposing defenses as he had 68 fewer pass attempts than would be expected.
Georgia in the second half of the season was a lot better than Georgia in the first half of the season. The defense and Moreno appeared to be the main drivers of the change, but a rising tide lifts all boats, right? Maybe Stafford played a bigger role in the turnaround than he got credit for.
Here are the same stats for the first and second halves of the season. The first half again leaves out Western Carolina. The second half begins with the Florida game and includes the bowl game.
8 comments Last one added about 1 year ago — Leave a Comment
Charles Westbrook about 1 year ago
If you watch him play, MS is every bit the leader that Tebow is. MS runs almost as well. He often breaks long runs and has a better arm. Most people who follow UGA football know that we have had horrible receiver drop issues and we started 3 frosh on the Oline last year. UGA fans believe MS is a top 3 first round draft pick ( so do most pundits)and with the right Oline and hopefully some game breaking receivers I'm sure he won't disapoint you.. or maybe his success really will..
Edit Comment Cancel
T DAWG4 about 1 year ago
It is impossible to quantify Matt Stafford's value with sharp toothed number crunching.
In 2007, Matt Stafford and his brothers face adversity and defining moments on many occasions.
The defining moment against South Carolina (for MS), ended in failure when he missed a wide open Tripp Chandler and the DAWGS went on to lose.
The defining moment vs UT was when the team got off the bus. Somehow they failed to suit up.
However, every other defining moment from there on in the 2007 season was met in championship form because Matt Stafford is a champion. He beat a few teams, utterly destroyed a couple and the defense picked it up to match the offensive output. If you're not watching him weekly, I understand why you don't get it. He does not play "star". He is the undisputed leader of the powerful UGA offense. But, he is a rank and file member also. That is his strength. He is part of the team fiber, not a primadonna posing atop it.
In your assessment of how opposing coaches will defense the 2008 DAWGS, you say they will stack the box (as if they didn't think of that last year while Moreno and Thomas Brown were running for over 2100 yards). Your contention is an amateurish oversimplification of the problems the UGA offense presents. UGA has a wide array of weapons and Stafford is becoming an expert at what he does. He uses them all. Daring Matt Stafford to beat you is like sticking your head in the basket and daring the cobra to bite you.
There is a reason virtually every pro scouting service and pundit agrees that Stafford is the 1st QB to be taken in the NFL draft, no matter when he turns pro. They watch him much more closely than you do and their estimation of his ability and value to a football team clearly reflects it. Either all those professionals know what they're talking about, or you do. Gee, I wonder which it is?
Edit Comment Cancel
David Wunderlich about 1 year ago
Guys who don't play "star" don't get taken in the top 10 of the draft. The only quarterback taken in the top 10 this decade who had a similar passer efficiency rating and completion percentage to what Stafford had last year was Michael Vick (127.4, 54.04%). As we all know though, it was his running ability that got him drafted that high.
The next rung up from Vick is Joey Harrington, at 141.2 and 57.76%. Matt Ryan had a 127 rating, but a 59.33% completion percentage. Everyone else (9 guys) had at least a 148 rating and over 60% completion percentage. If Stafford is going to be taken that high, he'll have to make his numbers better.
The draft scouts putting Stafford in the top 10 are all going off of physical tools and projected improvement. I already said the conditions are right for him to make The Jump in 2008, so they could be proved right. If you notice though, that is based on noticeable *improvement* over last year which was the entire theme of the piece.
And as for team success this decade, only Matt Flynn's 125.8/56.27% is close to Stafford's numbers among national title-winning quarterbacks (and I included both Mauck and Leinart in 2003). Flynn also led the first 2-loss national champion in decades in a year that had everything out of whack. The only other sub-59% completion percentage guy who won the national title is Ken Dorsey in 2001, but he also had the most stacked team of the decade (anyone in '08 included). Everyone but Flynn also hit 139 in passer rating.
Unless the Georgia defense is as terrifyingly good as 2007 LSU's was when healthy, or the entire Georgia team turns out to be as good top-to-bottom as 2001 Miami, another incremental improvement from Stafford probably won't be enough to win a national title.
I'm not saying he can't get much better, I'm saying he *must* get much better. There's a difference.
Edit Comment Cancel
Jay Thomas about 1 year ago
The number crunchers will rate Stafford where he is rated, in the upper middle of the pack with a bullet(meaning his stock is rising). The bullet comes from the folks who really watch him play and the coaches who coach against him. They know that it is what he does with some of those completions that brings about all the NFL talk. He throws ropes on those deep outs and deep wheel routes that are standard NFL fare, that few other college QBs can make, including the current Heisman trophy holder. Some of the passes he made against Auburn, UF, and GT, are examples of what I am talking about. A lot of the passes he throws in the UGA offense are lower percentage passes than the 5 yard variety that Tebow builds his high percentage on. No disrespect meant to Tim because he is playing the offense presented to him. If you look around the boards you will see folks say Casey Dick has as good of a completion percentage as Matt. So this should illustrate my point precisely. If you are an NFL general manager do you just flip a coin between Casey Dick and Matt Stafford?
Edit Comment Cancel
David Wunderlich about 1 year ago
To be fair to Casey Dick, he hasn't had the chance to play in an offense with a real passing game. Not that he's as good as Stafford is or anything, but he'll probably do well in Petrino's offense.
If you'll note in my comment above, the quarterbacks who win championships and get drafted in the top 10 tend to have both high passer ratings and high completion percentages. You obviously need more than just that, or else Stefan LeFors would be lighting up the NFL right now. It takes physical tools too, and Stafford has plenty of them, as well as good judgment, a cool head, etc.
I looked it up, and of the 33 quarterbacks in the NFL who had at least 14 attempts per team game played, only 2 had a lower completion percentage than Stafford did last year. Each of the top 24 had at least a 60% completion percentage. Accuracy does matter, and if you don't have it you generally don't do well in the NFL. Stafford needs to find it, but he has one of the great quarterback mentors in the country as his head coach so it's likely he'll get better.
Now I don't know how much Florida football you watched last year, but Tebow threw plenty of passes longer than 5 yards. I don't mean completions that go down in the book for more than 5 yards that were mostly receiver running, I mean intermediate to deep throws. He did just fine with them too. His arm is plenty strong and just because he runs the option occasionally doesn't mean the Florida passing game is elementary.
Edit Comment Cancel
Kevin Weeks about 1 year ago
Style of offense also has to be taken into account when evaluating a quarterback. What would Stafford's numbers look like if most of the running back touches were added as completed screen passes? What would Tebow's numbers look like if he was asked to throw more than 3 yards on every play and follow through more than one progression? Stafford also calls about 70% of Georgia's plays from the line of scrimmage.
Tim Tebow is a fantastic competitor in a system perfectly suited for him to rack up monster numbers. Stafford is a fantastic talent in a system perfectly suited for him to lead a team to championships.
Edit Comment Cancel
David Wunderlich about 1 year ago
Did you watch Florida's offense at all?
For one thing, UF averaged 200.17 rushing yards per game last year, compared with Georgia's 177.23 rushing yards per game. Florida's run/pass ratio was 487/361 (1.35); by comparison, Georgia's run/pass ratio was 509/365 (1.39). You'll not find a whole lot of substituting runs with screen passes by the Gators; that's what teams like Texas Tech do, not Florida.
As for Stafford calling plays, he was given two plays at the line of scrimmage and got the choice to pick between them (1). Tebow is given a play, but after the snap he often must choose to pass or run. One choice happens before the snap, one happens after; it's two sides of the same coin.
And for the last time, Tebow wasn't just throwing short passes all season. I have every Florida game from last year recorded. I can make a video demonstrating the intermediate to long throws if you all really need proof.
1. http://georgia.scout.com/2/699207.html
Edit Comment Cancel
H.P. Barclay about 1 year ago
Here we go with the left shoulder again. When Superman finally does fly away from Gainesville, I hope he leaves his non-throwing, left shoulder with the athletic department, so it can be pulled out and forever blamed for any tough loss that should befall the Gators.
Edit Comment Cancel
Leave a Comment
You must register to post a comment.