Matthew Stafford's Improvement as QB Is Key to Georgia's '08 Season

One of the most critical players for Georgia in 2008 is QB Matthew Stafford.

Georgia’s running game will should be excellent thanks to Knowshon Moreno’s brilliance and the emergence of redshirt freshman Caleb King. At some point though, teams will stack the box to stop the running game and dare Stafford to beat them through the air.

Stafford has basically been a starter since he walked in the door at Georgia. He has finished 86th and 56th in the country in passing efficiency in his two years. Those aren’t terrible results for true freshman and sophomore years, but he finished behind and tied with UCF quarterbacks Steven Moffett and Kyle Israel. If you’ve watched any UCF football the past two seasons, you know that’s not a good sign.

I now present Stafford's production in 2007. I've ignored the Western Carolina game, since you don't learn anything about good I-A teams when they play bad I-AA teams, and the "expected" production is based off of the stats of each of his opponents. Values are rounded off to two decimal places, so they may not always add up, but I promise that Excel's not lying.

Stafford was a little better at throwing touchdowns, avoiding interceptions, and gaining yards than the average quarterback given his schedule. He was not quite as accurate though, with a completion percentage about 3.20% below the expected figure. These stats also show that Georgia generally ran the ball more than the average offense that played against Stafford's slate of opposing defenses as he had 68 fewer pass attempts than would be expected.

Georgia in the second half of the season was a lot better than Georgia in the first half of the season. The defense and Moreno appeared to be the main drivers of the change, but a rising tide lifts all boats, right? Maybe Stafford played a bigger role in the turnaround than he got credit for.

Here are the same stats for the first and second halves of the season. The first half again leaves out Western Carolina. The second half begins with the Florida game and includes the bowl game.

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