Seth Russell's Injury Makes Baylor the Most At-Risk Playoff Team

Suspend the strength-of-schedule argument for a moment. Heading into Week 8 against Iowa State, Baylor had the look of a playoff-caliber team. Though the 45-27 win over the Cyclones was the sleepiest the Bears have looked all year, it did little to change their place in the national landscape. 

Moving forward could be a different discussion entirely. Quarterback Seth Russell left Saturday's game in the fourth quarter with a neck injury. Later, Baylor confirmed Russell sustained a fracture in one of the bones in his neck. The redshirt junior will see a specialist this week, and his timetable for return is "unknown." 

For reference, Clemson wide receiver Mike Williams sustained a neck fracture in Week 1 while catching a touchdown pass against Wofford. He is likely out for the year, per Aaron Brenner of the Post and Courier. While it would be premature to speculate on Russell's prognosis, it's telling that, when asked if Russell would have been able to finish the game if it were close, Bears head coach Art Briles said, "No, no." 

Suffice it to say, Baylor's open week couldn't have come at a better time. Still, losing someone of Russell's caliber for any length of time makes the Bears the most at-risk team in the playoff hunt.

To give you an idea of what Russell meant to Baylor, consider the following: He's averaged more than 300 passing yards per game and ranked behind only TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin and Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes II in total yards per game in the Big 12. Russell directly accounted for 35 of the Bears' 59 touchdowns. That's more touchdowns than 100 Football Bowl Subdivision teams have scored all season. Russell also has excellent straight-line and open-field speed, the best since Robert Griffin III. 

Granted, every team is banged-up at this point in the season. Ask Notre Dame and TCU what it's like to have an injury report as long as a grocery list. The Irish, though, have already proved they can overcome myriad injuries, even at quarterback. DeShone Kizer is averaging 220.7 yards per game and is moving the offense with the help of running back C.J. Prosise and receiver Will Fuller. 

The Frogs, for all their problems, still have the quarterback-receiver combination of Boykin and Josh Doctson. Together, they've been impossible to stop and have also shown the ability to win tight games when it matters most. 

Similarly, Baylor needs to be ready to insert the next man up. That "man" is 19-year-old true freshman Jarrett Stidham. Chris Johnson, who had transitioned to wide receiver, will move back to quarterback, per Kirk Bohls of the Austin American-Statesman. 

The early returns on Stidham have been overwhelmingly positive. The former 4-star recruit and Elite 11 finalist enrolled early and quickly moved up the depth chart. In garbage time this year, he's 24-of-28 for 331 yards and six touchdowns with zero picks. His first collegiate pass was a touchdown against SMU. 

But what separates the Bears from the likes of Notre Dame and TCU is that no one yet knows if Stidham will be able to pick up where Russell left off. It's one thing to look good when a game against lower-tier competition has already been decided. It's another to take the reins of an offense when the toughest part of the season is forthcoming. 

Three of Baylor's final five games come against the Big 12's other top teams: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and TCU. The latter two are on the road. Combined, the Sooners, Cowboys and Frogs are 20-1. The final stretch of the Bears' schedule was always going to be the toughest part to navigate. Now, it's going to be even more difficult.  

This is where Briles' reputation as a quarterback guru comes into play. Baylor has been able to plug-and-play signal-callers in recent years with the success of few other programs. The Bears, however, have had tremendous fortune with injuries, which has allowed those quarterbacks to come along at an easy pace. 

The last time Baylor was forced to play a true freshman quarterback for an extended period of time was in 2009, when Nick Florence took over for the injured RG3 in a situation that mirrors this one. RG3 also started as a true freshman in 2008. Back then, though, Baylor was still building into the program it is today. This Bears team has high expectations and little room for error. 

But in '09, Florence was coming in cold. Stidham, on the other hand, at least has some experience and an extra week to prepare for his first start. This, as Craig Smoak of ESPN Radio Central Texas explained, is why Baylor did not redshirt Stidham. 

A coach's job is to simulate chaos with the hope that players will be ready for anything on Saturdays. Still, no amount of preparation can account for what a freshman who touches the ball on every play might do when thrown into meaningful live situations. It doesn't matter if a first-year player is a 5-star recruit or a walk-on, the speed of the college game is a different animal, and it takes time to adjust.

UCLA freshman quarterback Josh Rosen is a perfect example. He's been brilliant in some games and quite freshman-esque in others. In fact, sometimes he embodies those qualities on back-to-back plays. It takes time for the inconsistencies to balance out. There's a learning curve. To expect Stidham to be anywhere near perfect is unrealistic, even with all the skill players he will have around him. 

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Will that cost Baylor at any point over the next five games? Maybe, but it's Briles' job to put Stidham in position to be successful as often as possible.

In the coming days, and perhaps weeks, you may hear that a new quarterback doesn't change a team's offense or its play-calling. That is coachspeak. The Bears have to adjust to a backup quarterback—potentially for an extended period of time. That means both their coaches and players have to be ready to be more accountable. 

How well Baylor accomplishes that will go a long way toward determining whether it's playoff-bound. 

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise cited. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.