Auburn's Bowl Game Hopes on the Line vs. Kentucky
Before the season, Auburn—and likely most people who picked them to win the SEC at media days in July—thought that the Tigers' sixth game of the year could be the one that makes them bowl-eligible.
Instead, it's the game that could decide whether they have a chance to play in the postseason in 2015 at all.
The Tigers (3-2, 0-2 SEC) will head to Lexington for a Thursday night tussle with the upstart Wildcats 4-1 (2-1 SEC) in a game that truly is must-win for head coach Gus Malzahn's Tigers.
"Our team definitely needed the off week. I think it couldn't have come at a better time," Malzahn said. "It's good for the guys who have been a little banged up."
And the guys have been banged up—both mentally and physically.
Defensive end Carl Lawson is out for a prolonged period of time after injuring his hip in the first half of the opener against Louisville, running backs Jovon Robinson and Roc Thomas have been in and out of the lineup and freshman defensive back Tim Irvin sat out the San Jose State game.
Auburn had better get healthy in a hurry, because it's only a 1.5-point favorite over the Wildcats on Thursday, according to OddsShark.com, and the only game left on the schedule Auburn could write in ink as a win is the Idaho game on Nov. 21.
Auburn should beat Kentucky from a talent standpoint, but it's hard to trust the Tigers based on their rather lackluster results this season. The Arkansas game in Fayetteville next week could be considered a tossup. The rest of the schedule doesn't look promising.
Simply put, if Auburn loses on Thursday night, it's not likely to go to a bowl game this year. That'd be huge, because those bowl practices would be huge for the development of both the offense and the defense.
From an offensive standpoint, this season has been a total disaster for the Tigers.
Quarterback Jeremy Johnson—who was near the top of preseason odds to win the Heisman Trophy—was benched after the LSU game in Week 3 after throwing six picks, only five touchdowns and looking lost through the first three games of the year.
Redshirt freshman Sean White hasn't been bad in a pinch over the last two games—a loss to Mississippi State and a win over San Jose State, but it's clear that they were spoon-feeding him the offense a bit.
Now the battle is open again heading into the Kentucky game.
"We are going to let everybody compete," Malzahn said last week. "We are really happy with the way Sean played his first two games and feel like he has a lot of potential. He's still taking the first reps in practice, but we are letting our guys compete at all positions."
Whoever takes the snaps, Auburn has to get the offense clicking. It has just seven passing plays of 20 or more yards on the season. For comparison, Baylor averages 6.6 per game. That has to change, especially if running back Peyton Barber doesn't want 11 sets of eyes on him on every play.
For the defense, Auburn has to find a different catalyst other than Lawson to have the unit filter around. When he was in vs. Louisville, the Tigers were awesome. Without him, coordinator Will Muschamp's crew has been a disaster.
They're 12th in the SEC in total defense (412 yards per game), last in the conference in third down defense (47.06 percent) and have given up 76 plays of 10 or more yards this year (11th in the SEC).
The bye week has given the first-year defensive coordinator a chance to hit the reset button, with players like Irvin, defensive lineman Andrew Williams and cornerback T.J. Davis—who's been out all year recovering from a torn ACL—to returning to action.
"The work we've had the last two days have been outstanding. I've been very pleased," he said on Sunday, according to Auburn's official site.
Muschamp and Malzahn had better hope Auburn got things fixed last week, because the game vs. Kentucky is an enormous game for this season's Tigers, the development of younger players who need bowl practices and the confidence of a team that has been absent of the characteristic all season long.
It's do or die for the Tigers on Thursday night at Commonwealth Stadium.
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Recruiting information is courtesy of 247Sports. Statistics are courtesy of CFBStats.com.
Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and national college football video analyst for Bleacher Report as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM 83. Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.
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