NCAA Football Rankings 2015: Predicting the Top 25 After Week 6
Week 6 teased some more massive shakeups in what has been an unpredictable college football season.
Ohio State needed a second-half surge to put away struggling Maryland. Michigan State went down to the wire with Rutgers. TCU had to rally to beat Kansas State. Utah had to hang on to beat California.
Oh, and those were just the close contests in the Top Five.
Five teams occupying spots in the Associated Press Top 25 tasted defeat this weekend, and several of them will experience life outside the rankings in Week 7. A couple of others made impressive claims for pollsters to give them more respect near the halfway point of the season.
As always at this time, here is this week's projection of how the Associated Press voters will rank the nation's Top 25 on Sunday, along with some of the biggest rises and falls in the poll.
| 1. Ohio State | 1 | 6-0 | Won 49-28 vs. Maryland |
| 2. Baylor | 3 | 5-0 | Won 66-7 at Kansas |
| 3. TCU | 2 | 6-0 | Won 52-45 at Kansas State |
| 4. Utah | 5 | 5-0 | Won 30-24 vs. No. 23 California |
| 5. Clemson | 6 | 5-0 | Won 43-24 vs. Georgia Tech |
| 6. LSU | 7 | 5-0 | Won 45-24 vs. South Carolina |
| 7. Michigan State | 4 | 6-0 | Won 31-24 at Rutgers |
| 8. Alabama | 8 | 5-1 | Won 27-14 vs. Arkansas |
| 9. Texas A&M | 9 | 5-0 | BYE WEEK |
| 10. Florida | 11 | 6-0 | Won 21-3 at Missouri |
| 11. Florida State | 12 | 5-0 | Won 29-24 vs. Miami (Florida) |
| 12. Ole Miss | 13 | 5-1 | Won 52-3 vs. New Mexico State |
| 13. Michigan | 18 | 5-1 | Won 38-0 vs. No. 13 Northwestern |
| 14. Notre Dame | 15 | 5-1 | Won 41-24 vs. Navy |
| 15. Stanford | 16 | 4-1 | BYE WEEK |
| 16. Oklahoma State | 21 | 6-0 | Won 33-26 at West Virginia |
| 17. Iowa | 22 | 6-0 | Won 29-20 vs. Illinois |
| 18. UCLA | 20 | 4-1 | BYE WEEK |
| 19. Oklahoma | 10 | 4-1 | Lost 24-17 vs. Texas |
| 20. Northwestern | 13 | 5-1 | Lost 38-0 at No. 18 Michigan |
| 21. Toledo | 24 | 5-0 | Won 38-7 vs. Kent State |
| 22. Boise State | 25 | 5-1 | Won 41-10 at Colorado State |
| 23. Duke | NR | 5-1 | Won 44-3 at Army |
| 24. Houston | NR | 5-0 | Won 49-28 vs. SMU |
| 25. Temple | NR | 5-0 | Won 49-10 vs. Tulane |
Moving up
Baylor
While several Top-10 teams struggled to put teams away Saturday—continuing a trend from the last few weeks—Baylor slammed the door on awful Kansas by a score of 66-7 in Lawrence.
But the Bears' points-heavy demolition of Kansas isn't necessarily what moves them ahead of rival TCU, which had to come from behind to knock off Kansas State on the road. Baylor had more first-place votes heading into Week 6 than TCU, and another close call for the Horned Frogs will probably be enough to move Baylor up a spot.
"When I talk about a championship level, our guys know what we’re talking about and how to perform at that level," Baylor coach Art Briles said Saturday, per John Werner of the Waco Tribune. "There are trap games everywhere. That makes you understand you really have to stay on point. We have guys who have been around four or five years and understand what’s at stake."
In the last two weeks, Baylor has handled a Texas Tech team that took TCU down to the wire and blown out a bad Kansas team by an incredible margin. They won't catch Ohio State this week, but these Bears are doing well by staying clear of the traps.
Michigan
On Saturday, Michigan recorded its third straight shutout, becoming the first team in school history to do that since 1980. The Wolverines offense may have been even more impressive, as it combined with the special teams unit to score 21 first-quarter points on a Northwestern team that hadn't allowed more than 19 points in a game this season.
That powerful combination led to Michigan's fifth straight victory—a 38-0 home rout of previously unbeaten Northwestern—and has the Wolverines looking like the nation's hottest team.
"That's a good sign that you're building a good callus when you can play physical and not get beat up yourself," Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh said on his team's quick starts, per Bleacher Report's Ben Axelrod. "That's a good gauge. Probably the best gauge. That callus is hardening."
Expect Michigan to make a good-sized leap in the Top 25 this week after a commanding victory against a fellow unbeaten school. Pollsters will most likely put them over idle Stanford and maybe even Notre Dame, which didn't have quite as an impressive win in Week 6.
Duke
This projection has a trio of formerly unranked teams making their way into the Top 25 this weekend, but let's specifically highlight the Duke Blue Devils.
Duke's only loss this season was a 19-10 home loss to Northwestern, which was on a defensive roll heading into that matchup. Since then, Duke has sent preseason ACC contender Georgia Tech spiraling, edged Boston College and walloped option team Army away from home.
The Blue Devils will have a much tougher road to keep their Top 25 spot—they were the second-highest "also receiving votes" team heading into Week 6—after an off date in Week 7. Duke faces Virginia Tech away from home before a Halloween matchup against Miami at home.
But with all-world safety Jeremy Cash leading the way for a stingy defense, the Blue Devils are strong contenders in the ACC Coastal and will be solid additions to the rankings.
Moving down
Michigan State
Michigan State's 31-24 victory at Rutgers, which ran a fourth-down spike instead of a last-second Hail Mary, won't win the Spartans any more support among the pollsters.
"Just glad to go 6-0," Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio said, per Justin Dacey of MLive.com. "We got to get better."
Now a stunning 0-6 against the spread this season, the Spartans have failed to live up to high expectations in their last few matchups. Michigan State will be a prime candidate to continue its slide in the rankings after holding the No. 2 spot earlier in the season.
With Utah knocking off unbeaten Cal and Clemson and LSU recording solid victories, the Spartans are projected here to slide down to No. 7, just one spot ahead of one-loss Alabama. Michigan State will have a golden opportunity to reclaim some of the spots it loses this week, but they'll have to come with a rivalry win at red-hot Michigan.
Oklahoma
Oklahoma and Texas entered the Cotton Bowl on Saturday going in opposite directions. But when the dust settled in Dallas, the previously undefeated Sooners were the ones moving down after a loss to the rival Longhorns.
The Sooners' offensive front was manhandled for most of the game, allowing eight tackles for loss and six sacks to a Texas team that allowed 50 points to TCU last weekend. Oklahoma's high-powered offense only had 278 yards, and Texas out-gained the Sooners 313-67 on the ground.
"All in all, they kicked us," Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops said, per Jimmy Burch of the Star-Telegram. "There’s not much else to say about it."
Oklahoma will take a good-sized drop this weekend after losing to a Texas team that had only beaten Rice prior to Saturday's action. The Sooners shouldn't fall behind the pack of Group of Five teams near the bottom, though, settling them in this projection at No. 19.
Northwestern
Northwestern was the surprising recipient of Michigan's latest shutout Saturday, and the Wildcats found themselves trailing after the opening kickoff of the game.
Michigan made it clear from the beginning that this wouldn't be a repeat of the infamous "M00N" matchup, but Northwestern's offense couldn't stay in the game. The Wildcats only had 168 yards of offense as running back Justin Jackson was held to just 2.1 yards per touch.
"The Wildcats are still in position to compete for a spot in the Big Ten title game, but the defense that held Stanford and Duke at bay in September looked a bit more human against the Wolverines," Dan Murphy of ESPN.com wrote.
The Wildcats not falling as far as Oklahoma did in terms of places might not make sense to some. But this was a dominant Michigan team at home, and Northwestern still has a couple of wins over quality teams on its resume. It shouldn't drop lower than the likes of Toledo and Boise State.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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