College Football Teams on High Upset Alert in Month of October
The calendar has shifted to October, which in the college football world means we're getting into the meat of the schedule. The first month had plenty of great matchups but also a lot of dogs, but in October the presence of conference play raises the overall level of each week's schedule.
It also means there are far more occasions when the best teams in the FBS will be on upset alert.
It could be the opponent, the venue or when the game sits on the slate, or some combination of these factors that makes certain games more dangerous than they might appear on paper. It was this weekend last October when it seemed like no ranked team was safe, with Oklahoma, Oregon, UCLA, USC and Wisconsin all losing to unranked or lower-ranked opponents.
Which teams have the most to worry about in this department this October? Take a look at which teams we think should be looking over their shoulders.
Clemson Tigers
1 of 7
Potential upset games: Oct. 24 at Miami Hurricanes, Oct. 31 at North Carolina State Wolfpack
Clemson (3-0) has a chance to take a major step toward a potential playoff bid at the beginning of October, but at the end of the month, it could run into trouble just winning the ACC.
Saturday's visit from the Notre Dame Fighting Irish is a major resume-building opportunity for the Tigers, who are traditionally very strong at home. They get three straight games in Death Valley to start October, including a visit from the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, who won the ACC's Coastal Division last season.
Clemson also gets defending ACC champ Florida State at home to begin November, but that comes after a dangerous two-game road trip south to Miami and then up to North Carolina State. Both the Hurricanes and Wolfpack are currently unbeaten, and while that might not be the case when they face Clemson, they'll both still be tough outs.
Georgia Bulldogs
2 of 7
Potential upset games: Oct. 10 at Tennessee Volunteers, Oct. 17 vs. Missouri Tigers, Oct. 31 vs. Florida Gators (in Jacksonville)
Win or lose this Saturday against the Alabama Crimson Tide, the Georgia Bulldogs (4-0) will have their season defined by how they handle a series of potential pitfalls the rest of October. Ironically, they're against two of the teams that have tripped them up the last few years and another that's come painfully close to doing so.
Tennessee hasn't beaten Georgia since 2009, but the last four meetings have been decided by 21 points. Last year's game in Athens was 35-32, and the year before the Vols fell by a field goal in overtime at home.
Missouri shocked the Bulldogs on the road in 2013, a game that marked the changing of the guard in the SEC East, as Missouri would go on to win the next two division titles. Georgia shut out the Tigers last year at the start of an impressive two-game road trip (including a win at Arkansas) and then proceeded to lay a major egg against Florida in their annual neutral-site meeting.
The Alabama clash this weekend will make Georgia ripe for a letdown afterward, regardless of how it fares against the Crimson Tide. It could happen against any of October's remaining lineup or against all of them.
Michigan State Spartans
3 of 7
Potential upset games: Oct. 17 at Michigan Wolverines, Oct. 24 vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Since scoring their big home win over the Oregon Ducks, the Michigan State Spartans (4-0) have basically been on cruise control, and that should be the case for the next two weeks as they ease into the Big Ten schedule. The Spartans were outgained by both Air Force and Central Michigan yet won by a combined 34 points, and now they open with Purdue and play a rudderless Rutgers team on the road.
All of those sleepwalk-type games could lead to major complacency just as the schedule gets tougher, though. The mid-October game at Michigan is looking bigger than ever with how the Wolverines have improved on a weekly basis under Jim Harbaugh, but MSU will still be favored in that matchup.
The emotions from that game, win or lose, could then lead to a lingering effect that could impact the return home for Indiana. The Hoosiers are 4-0 but host defending national champion Ohio State and then go to Penn State, though they'll still be a potentially dangerous opponent because of their offense (39 points per game) and could catch MSU on an off day.
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Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4 of 7
Potential upset games: Oct. 10 vs. Navy Midshipmen, Oct. 17 vs. USC Trojans, Oct. 31 at Temple Owls
Notre Dame (4-0) has gotten off to a hot start by facing a lineup of opponents who haven't turned out to be very good. Texas, Virginia, Georgia Tech and Massachusetts are a combined 4-11, and two of their victories came against FCS opponents.
The Fighting Irish's October foes have 13 wins among them, with only one loss. Even if you take this Saturday's big clash at Clemson out of the equation, we're still looking at three strong opponents that Notre Dame will have to deal with, and all of them have the potential to derail its playoff hopes.
Navy regularly gives the Irish fits, and though they recently handled Georgia Tech's option run game, this will still be a challenge. A week later comes USC, which traditionally plays very well in South Bend, Indiana, and might be the only team Notre Dame plays this season that has more overall talent on the roster.
And we can't discount Temple, which began the season by beating the Penn State Nittany Lions for the first time since 1941 and should be in contention for the non-power-conference spot in a "New Year's Six" bowl game.
Oklahoma Sooners
5 of 7
Potential upset games: Oct. 3 vs. West Virginia Mountaineers, Oct. 10 vs. Texas Longhorns (in Dallas), Oct. 17 at Kansas State Wildcats, Oct. 24 vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Big 12 schedule is mostly backloaded for the league's top teams, which play each other several times in the final month of the season. Yet the Oklahoma Sooners' October is just as tough, without a game that could be considered easy until the Halloween trip to the Kansas Jayhawks.
The Sooners (3-0) start out with a whopper of a conference opener in West Virginia, which leads the nation in scoring defense at 7.7 points per game. That's followed by the annual Red River Shootout clash with Texas, which might seem like less of a game since Texas is likely to be 1-4 (assuming it loses Saturday at TCU), but because of the rivalry, it will still make for a tough contest.
Oklahoma then has to play at Kansas State, where it has won the last five times in Manhattan but might be at risk of an upset from the young-but-dangerous Wildcats. That's followed by Texas Tech, which showed last week, with how it took the TCU Horned Frogs to the wire, that it's going to be dangerous.
Ole Miss Rebels
6 of 7
Potential upset games: Oct. 3 at Florida Gators, Oct. 17 at Memphis Tigers, Oct. 31 at Auburn Tigers
The Ole Miss Rebels (4-0) have soared in the rankings thanks to their Week 3 win at the Alabama Crimson Tide, but October is going to prove to be much tougher than last month.
Three of the Rebels' five road games in 2015 come in October, starting with Saturday's visit to Florida (4-0). Losing that game wouldn't be much of an upset, despite being favored (per OddsShark.com), though their other two road trips would be.
The most dangerous of those treks is to Memphis (4-0), which has won 11 straight games and is averaging 53.8 points per game. The Tigers lost 24-3 at Ole Miss last October but since then have won 12 of 13 and topped 40 points nine times, including their last six.
The Memphis game is part of a concerted effort for Ole Miss to remain entrenched in the fertile recruiting area, while it is only 85 miles north of its Oxford campus. It's won the last three trips there, including the last one in 2009.
Auburn (2-2) has struggled mightily this season, falling far short of expectations, and by the end of October, it could be dead in the water. Or the Tigers could have turned things around and be well prepared to take on Ole Miss at home, where they've won the last five in the series.
Oregon Ducks
7 of 7
Potential upset games: Oct. 3 at Colorado Buffaloes, Oct. 10 vs. Washington State Cougars, Oct. 17 at Washington Huskies
Coming off their worst home loss in nearly 40 years, a 62-20 beatdown by the Utah Utes, the Oregon Ducks (2-2) don't have the luxury of a string of easy games to get back on track.
The Ducks' next two games are against Pac-12 teams that had losing records a year ago, but Colorado has already surpassed last season's two-win tally and gets to host Oregon at the best possible time. Then comes Washington State, which has one of the best passing games in the country and figures to feast on Oregon's shoddy secondary.
Oregon has won 11 in a row over Washington, with the four games in Seattle decided by an average of 20.8 points. If the Huskies are going to end that skid, it would be this year with how the Ducks have looked.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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