Baylor Bears vs. Southern Methodist Mustangs Betting Odds, College Football Pick

Baylor owns the recent rivalry with former Southwestern Conference foe SMU, winning the last 11 meetings in a row and covering the spread in its last five matchups. The Bears are fully expected to extend at least one of those streaks when they visit Dallas to begin what they hope is a run to the College Football Playoff against the Mustangs Friday night.

Point spread: Bears opened as 20-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 51.3-21.5 Bears

Why the Baylor Bears can cover the spread

Baylor returns 18 starters, nine on each side of the ball, from a team that won the Big 12 but just missed making the first ever College Football Playoff last season. Offensively the Bears have to replace quarterback Bryce Petty, but they return a 1,000-yard rusher (Shock Linwood), two 1,000-yard receivers (Corey Coleman, K.D. Cannon) and the entire offensive line. And defensively, they get back the entire front four and secondary.

This team could be a monster. The Bears beat the Mustangs in Waco last season 45-0, outgaining them by over 500 yards and covering as 34-point favorites, and most signs point to something similar happening Friday night.

Why the Southern Methodist Mustangs can cover the spread

Southern Methodist is operating under a new coaching regime after the 1-11 mess that was last season, but at least there's a little something to work with. The Mustangs return 16 starters this season, nine on offense and seven on defense, including last year's starting quarterback (Matt Davis), the entire offensive line, three quarters of the front four and three quarters of the secondary.

Outside of a minor miracle, the Mustangs won't win this game, but if they can play a little defense, grind out some first downs and avoid turning the ball over they could cover this spread.

Smart pick

Baylor is a top-five team in its eighth season under head coach Art Briles, shooting for a spot in the College Football Playoff. SMU, on the other hand, is playing its first game for new head coach Chad Morris, which means a learning curve which will probably extend through the entire season. Also, playing on the road means the spread is a little more manageable, as far as the chalk is concerned. The smart money in this spot resides with the Bears.

Betting trends

SMU is 0-20 SU in its last 20 games vs. the Big 12.

SMU is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games.

Baylor is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five meetings with SMU.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.