Non-Power 5 Schools with Best Shot to Crash College Football Playoff

For whatever reason, college football doesn't love a Cinderella in the same way college basketball does. Why is anyone's guess, but the sport's mid-majors never had an opportunity to prove their worth in the BCS era. 

Could that ever change in the four-team playoff era? Perhaps, but a lot would have to happen. 

Before spouting off the (extremely short) list of non-power schools that could crash the playoff in 2015, there are a couple of things that have to be taken into consideration.

The first is that the following teams must go undefeated. This is pretty much non-negotiable. A one-loss team listed here isn't going to get so much as a glance from the selection committee—unless no Power 5 team finishes better than 9-3. 

Even then, an undefeated non-power team could face difficulties getting in over a one- or even two-loss team. Remember: Expanding to a four-team playoff was about money, not access. 

Secondly, when referring to schedules, the more difficult it is, the better. Marshall was undefeated through the first 11 games of its 2014 season and barely sniffed a top-25 spot in the playoff poll (which was quickly taken away following a loss to Western Kentucky). The reason? The Thundering Herd, while a quality team, played n-o-b-o-d-y. 

With those things in mind, here are three non-power schools with an outside shot to crash the playoff—should planets align and circumstances permit. And, as it so happens, all three schools play at least one other program on this list. 

Boise State

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

The Broncos own the Cinderella label. From the mid-2000s on, Boise State has been either near the top of the rankings, involved in giant-killer games or making "dark-horse championship" lists like these. While it's never resulted in so much as an opportunity for a national championship, there are few programs more recognizable outside of the Power 5. 

"Boise State has been a power program for a long time, if we’re in the Group of Five or not,” head coach Bryan Harsin told Pete Thamel of Sports Illustrated last month. That might sound like coachspeak, but Harsin's not wrong. The remarkable run under Chris Petersen included draft-day success—from 2007-14, the Broncos had 20 players drafted—and two Fiesta Bowl appearances. Harsin took Boise to a third Fiesta Bowl last season, beating Arizona 38-30. 

This year, despite losing quarterback Grant Hedrick and running back Jay Ajayi, Boise State is looking for more. Thamel, however, brought up a good point on Boise's quest for a playoff spot: 

"

First off, the committee wipes the slate clean and re-ranks each week. In doing so, it will inherently hurt teams from outside the Power Five. When the first College Football Playoff rankings are released on Nov. 3, Boise’s games from that date onward are New Mexico, Air Force, at San Jose State and potentially the Mountain West title game. That offers little opportunity to impress committee members. By contrast, Auburn will face Texas A&M on the road, Georgia, Idaho, Alabama and potentially the SEC East winner in that league's championship game.

"

Boise's late-season slate can't be (and won't be) ignored, but neither can the entire body of work, which has already been used as an explanation by playoff committee chair Jeff Long before. In addition to its Mountain West schedule, Boise State plays Idaho State, Washington, BYU and Virginia. Idaho State aside, that's certainly not the worst out-of-conference schedule. Using Football Outsiders' F/+ efficiency rankings from last year, the latter three opponents give Boise's nonconference strength of schedule a rating of about 55. 

It's not terrible, but it certainly leaves Boise with no room for error, not that there was much room anyway. 

BYU

Technically, the Cougars are now "considered" a power opponent by some of the power conferences. However, that's about as official as you considering me the worst sportswriter in the country. (So pretty official then, right?) 

Anyway, the Cougars are in a no-man's land of sorts in major college football. They're not in a power conference but don't hold the same level of rapport among Independents as Notre Dame. And, as McMurphy notes, BYU isn't entitled to Power 5 money from the playoff. 

Still, BYU has the personnel and schedule to make an interesting playoff run. The first three games on the Cougars' schedule are rough: at Nebraska, at home against Boise State and then on the road at UCLA. 

That's tough for anyone. 

BYU's schedule gets more manageable from there, but Michigan, East Carolina, Cincinnati, Missouri, Fresno State and Utah State all present hurdles in one way or another. If it goes undefeated through that, BYU should be, at worst, in the peripheral playoff conversation by December. 

Rick Bowmer/Associated Press

There's also the return of quarterback Taysom Hill, a talented dual-threat who has battled injuries throughout his career. After losing Hill to a season-ending leg injury in 2014 against Utah State, the Cougars lost four straight games. 

"I’ve got another year to showcase what I can do as an athlete, as a quarterback and (we) as a BYU football team, so let’s make the most of it," Hill said in June (h/t Jeff Call, the Deseret News). “I feel like I’m a smarter player because I was able to watch (the game) from a birds-eye view. The biggest thing that I learned is, this opportunity is so small, I’m going to make the most of every chance that I get."

With a veteran group, BYU once again finds itself in the dark-horse playoff discussion. This time, though, can the Cougars actually deliver?

Cincinnati

As far as Group of 5 conferences go, the American Athletic Conference could actually be excellent in 2015. Central Florida, East Carolina, Memphis and even Temple have all elevated their programs over the past few years. However, Cincinnati is the overwhelming favorite to win the American this year. The Bearcats won nine games last season despite injuries and return many of those starters, including quarterback Gunner Kiel. 

However, Cincinnati's nine wins also rang a bit hollow. Two marquee nonconference games against Ohio State and Miami were double-digit losses, as was Military Bowl against Virginia Tech. The Bearcats thankfully don't get the Buckeyes again but do have an opportunity for revenge on a Thursday night at home against the Hurricanes. 

If Cincy wants to at least show down the line it should be in the playoff conversation, it has to beat Miami and then BYU the following game. 

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes are cited unless obtained firsthand.