10 College Football Teams That Are Locks to Win 10 Games in 2015
When college football programs evaluate their seasons at year’s end, few are truly satisfied. Every program begins their year with one major goal in mind: winning a national championship. That’s a truly difficult goal to reach, and each January, all but one team finishes disappointed.
However, there is another standard by which a truly successful season can be judged: a 10-win season. Last fall, 23 FBS programs finished with at least 10 victories. Fourteen of those teams won or shared, at the very least, a division title. Nineteen of the 25 teams in the final Associated Press Top 25 won at least 10 games. In other words, it’s a major benchmark for success.
That will be the case again this fall. Here’s a look at 10 teams that are locks to win 10 games in 2015. This is not an all-encompassing list of this fall’s 10-game winners, but rather it's a listing of the teams which stand the best chance of doing so. Factors such as returning starters, schedule and recent success were taken into account when compiling this list.
Alabama
1 of 10
Death. Taxes. Alabama winning 10 games under Nick Saban’s watch. It might be hard to believe, but the Crimson Tide won 10 games just four times in a 13-season span before Saban’s arrival.
Following a 7-6 debut campaign in 2007, Saban and Alabama have rolled through their competition and carry a seven-year streak of 10-win seasons into 2015. In fact, 2010’s 10-3 season was the outlier in that group. It’s the only time that Alabama hasn’t won at least 11 games in that period.
Don’t expect that to change this fall. Although Alabama will return only nine starters, Saban and Alabama have built excellent depth in recruiting, which they’ll employ. All-America receiver Amari Cooper and All-America safety Landon Collins departed early for the NFL, and replacing them won’t be easy. Look for tailback Derrick Henry to carry a bigger load in the offense with T.J. Yeldon gone to the NFL.
One of the most interesting questions is at quarterback, where 2014 backup Jake Coker must hold off a talented group of contenders, including incoming freshman Blake Barnett.
The schedule is anything but easy. Alabama opens at AT&T Stadium against Wisconsin and must travel to Georgia, Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Auburn in the nation’s toughest division, the SEC West. But as history has proven, betting against Alabama isn’t smart.
Baylor
2 of 10
In seven seasons, Art Briles has transformed Baylor from doormat into a powerhouse. When Briles arrived in 2008, the Bears hadn’t posted a winning season since 1995. And while last season ended bitterly with Baylor barely missing the College Football Playoff and blowing a 20-point fourth-quarter Cotton Bowl lead to Michigan State, it was still the program’s third 10-win season in the last four years.
While Baylor must replace standout quarterback Bryce Petty, the immediate future looks bright.
The Bears return 17 starters, and that includes tailback Shock Linwood (1,252 yards, 16 touchdowns) and 1,000-yard receivers KD Cannon and Corey Coleman. In addition, all five offensive line starters return. The defense will be keyed by monster defensive end Shawn Oakman, one of the nation’s top returning pass-rushers, who turned down the NFL for a final run through the Big 12.
The Bears’ schedule, at least in the Big 12, presents challenges. Baylor must travel to TCU, Oklahoma State and Kansas State, although Oklahoma and Texas will visit Waco. Regardless, there is ample reason to believe this will be a 10-win team again in 2015.
Boise State
3 of 10
Players leave. Coaches skip town for greener pastures. Conferences change. But Boise State just keeps rolling. Over the past 16 years, the Broncos have established themselves as the premier mid-major program in college football. In that span, they’ve won at least 10 games 13 times, including a trio of Fiesta Bowl victories.
2014 was more of the same. Following an 8-5 season in 2013 that ended with Chris Petersen’s departure to Washington, Bryan Harsin authored a special debut campaign, going 12-2 with a Mountain West title and a Fiesta Bowl win over Arizona.
This fall, the Broncos return 17 starters, although they must replace quarterback Grant Hedrick and tailback Jay Ajayi, who left early for the NFL after rushing for 1,823 yards and 28 touchdowns as a junior. The new starters will be protected by an offensive line that returns all five starters.
The front half of 2015’s schedule won’t be easy. Boise hosts Washington and former coach Chris Petersen in the opener and then travels to face BYU and talented quarterback Taysom Hill the following week. September ends with a potentially difficult cross-country trip to Virginia. And a two-game road trip to MWC contenders Colorado State and Utah State will test the mettle of Harsin’s bunch.
A few blemishes are possible, but this looks like a roster with a strong chance to continue Boise’s history of 10-win seasons.
Clemson
4 of 10
Under Dabo Swinney’s watch, Clemson has become one of the more consistent programs in college football. The Tigers will be trying for their fifth consecutive double-digit win season in 2015. Over the last four years, they’re 42-11 with an ACC Championship and bowl wins over LSU, Ohio State and Oklahoma.
And given what Swinney’s group returns this fall, there’s little reason to expect much of a drop-off from 2014’s 10-3 record. Clemson will return 10 starters, led by sophomore quarterback Deshaun Watson (who excelled last fall when he was healthy) and an excellent receiving corps keyed by junior Mike Williams and sophomore Artavis Scott.
The Tigers’ schedule also sets up very well. While Clemson must travel to Louisville for a Thursday night game and go to rival South Carolina in the regular-season finale, it hosts Florida State, Georgia Tech and Notre Dame at home.
There are concerns about the defense, which returns only three starters and must rebuild its front seven, but Brent Venables is one of the nation’s top defensive coordinators, and Clemson has recruited well, with defensive end Shaq Lawson a potential star. Fans should be bullish about Swinney and Clemson this fall.
Georgia
5 of 10
Coaching at Georgia isn’t easy. Sure, Mark Richt is well-compensated and has excellent facilities and a strong recruiting base to draw from, but standards are extremely high. Last fall, 10 wins seemed like a disappointment for the Bulldogs. They lost to rivals Florida, Georgia Tech and South Carolina and didn’t even win the SEC East, relegated to the Belk Bowl where they routed Louisville.
And don’t expect expectations to abate this fall. Georgia returns 13 starters, led by sophomore tailback Nick Chubb, who emerged as a powerful, productive runner while rushing for 1,547 yards and 14 touchdowns as a freshman. The Bulldogs also return six starters on defense, keyed by a stacked linebacker corps.
Brice Ramsey, Faton Batua and Jacob Park will compete to replace Hutson Mason at quarterback. Mason was solid but hardly irreplaceable, throwing 21 touchdowns against four interceptions. New offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will supervise the competition after replacing new Colorado State coach Mike Bobo.
Georgia must travel to Auburn and Georgia Tech in November, but it does host Alabama, Missouri and South Carolina. If a strong recruiting class contributes, a 10-win season that means more to Bulldog fans is a strong bet.
Michigan State
6 of 10
Under Mark Dantonio’s watch, Michigan State has become one of college football’s more consistent powers in the last five years. The Spartans have won at least 11 games in four of the past five seasons, and over the last two years, they’re 24-3, with the only losses coming to Notre Dame, Ohio State and Oregon.
In other words, it simply isn’t wise to bet against Michigan State. Dantonio does have some question marks this fall. Michigan State will return 12 starters, but it must adjust to the loss of standout defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi (who left to become Pitt’s head coach) as well as leading rusher Jeremy Langford (1,522 yards, 22 touchdowns) and leading receiver Tony Lippett (65 receptions, 1,198 yards, 11 scores).
However, State got a big boost when standout quarterback Connor Cook decided to return for his senior season. Cook threw for 3,214 yards with 24 touchdowns against eight interceptions last fall and is an excellent leadership presence as the engine for the Spartans offense.
The Spartans will host Oregon Sept. 12 and must travel to Ohio State Nov. 21 for a game that’ll likely decide the Big Ten East. Still, the schedule is manageable, and if new offensive options emerge, 10 wins is a sure thing.
Ohio State
7 of 10
Last fall will be remembered as the year Ohio State retook its place among college football’s elite. Following a surprising early-season loss to Virginia Tech, Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes just kept winning and winning and winning, making their way into the College Football Playoff and bullying past Alabama and Oregon for a national title.
The Buckeyes will be even more fascinating in 2015. They return 14 starters and have the nation’s most interesting quarterback situation with Cardale Jones (who led the playoff charge), J.T. Barrett (who keyed the regular-season success) and Braxton Miller (an All-Big Ten performer) all expected to compete for the starting role in preseason camp.
The Buckeyes' celebration has been replaced with a back-to-work mentality in spring practice, as Bill Rabinowitz of The Columbus Dispatch reports.
Rabinowitz reports the quarterback competition has been a constant topic of conversation.
“If I don’t get it twice a day, I get it three times a day,” said Ed Warinner, the new offensive coordinator/offensive line coach.
What’s more, OSU returns four starting offensive linemen, tailback Ezekiel Elliott (who rushed for 1,878 yards and 18 touchdowns) and the majority of its receiving corps. Defensively, All-America defensive end Joey Bosa returns, although defensive tackle Michael Bennett, middle linebacker Curtis Grant and corner Doran Grant must be replaced.
Although Ohio State must travel to Virginia Tech for the season opener, Michigan State, the toughest Big Ten foe, will travel to Columbus. It’d be a surprise if this team didn’t win 10 games in 2015.
Oregon
8 of 10
So close, so far away. Oregon found that out the hard way in January. For the second time in six seasons, the Ducks ended their season in the national title game. For the second time, they ended as the national runner-up, falling to Ohio State in the inaugural College Football Playoff National Championship.
While Oregon will have to figure out how to take the next step without Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Marcus Mariota (who left early for the NFL draft), Mark Helfrich has a solid foundation.
The Ducks are riding a seven-year streak of 10-win seasons and have won at least 12 games in four of the past five seasons. They return 13 starters, and while there are questions at quarterback (where a crowded field, including Eastern Washington transfer Vernon Adams, will compete), Oregon still has a potent ground game led by sophomore tailback Royce Freeman.
Helfrich must identify solutions at left tackle, where Tyler Johnstone could step into Jake Fisher’s shoes, as well as cornerback. Games at Michigan State, Arizona State and Stanford won’t be easy, but Oregon does get Southern California at home. Another 10-win season looks very likely.
Southern California
9 of 10
At Southern California, nine wins isn’t exactly cause for celebration. One of the nation’s most celebrated programs has high standards, and over the last five years, they haven’t really been met. Under Pete Carroll’s watch, the Trojans won at least 10 games for seven consecutive seasons, but Carroll’s departure and subsequent NCAA sanctions have laid the program low.
They’ve hit 10 wins just twice in a five-year span, which is partly why Steve Sarkisian is in his second season as the program’s leader. Sarkisian won nine games in his debut, and expectations will be higher this fall.
The Trojans will return 15 starters and are getting back to full strength following difficult NCAA sanctions, although replacing NFL draft early-entry losses like defensive end Leonard Williams, wideout Nelson Agholor and tailback Javorius “Buck” Allen won’t be easy.
Junior quarterback Cody Kessler’s return was a boon. Kessler threw for 3,826 yards and 39 touchdowns against five interceptions last fall. Rising sophomore cornerback Adoree’ Jackson is one of the nation’s most talented, versatile players who’ll make contributions on defense and in the return game.
USC will host Stanford, Arizona and UCLA but must travel to Arizona State, Notre Dame and Oregon. But if the nation’s No. 2 recruiting class contributes as expected, this group should easily break the 10-win barrier.
TCU
10 of 10
College football doesn’t hand out official awards for the nation’s biggest turnaround, but it’d be hard to find one more dramatic than the improvement TCU authored last fall.
Following a 4-8 record in 2013, the Horned Frogs used the Air Raid offense to go 12-1, capping the season with an emphatic Peach Bowl rout of Ole Miss and averaging 43.2 points per game. And big things are expected this fall. TCU will return 16 starters, led by senior quarterback Trevone Boykin, a two-way threat who’ll be a leading Heisman Trophy candidate.
The biggest questions surround the defense, which returns six starters but must replace linebackers Paul Dawson and Marcus Mallet, who combined for 236 tackles and 31.5 sacks last fall. But the offense should be able to carry the load if the defense needs a little extra time to find its way early on.
TCU will host Baylor in what should be the Big 12’s game of the year Nov. 27, but it opens the season at Minnesota and must travel to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State within a three-week span in November. Still, the Horned Frogs will be motivated to prove last season wasn’t a fluke, and they have the firepower to avoid any regression.
