10 Stats That Could Affect the College Football Playoff
Does it really matter that Oregon’s defense ranks No. 105 against the pass? How about Ohio State’s No. 117 rank in opponents' red-zone touchdown percentage?
The rankings, out of the 128 FBS teams, don’t sound like championship-caliber stats, but will they really matter when the playoff games finally roll around?
Take a look at the following numbers—five for each of the two games. Though they can’t tell us definitively who will win, they do give us an idea of how things might play out.
These are the stats behind the stats, setting up matchups that could change the face of the first-ever College Football Playoff.
Florida State-Oregon: 74.5 Penalty Yards Per Game
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Only eight teams in the nation have been penalized for more yards than Oregon, suffering 107 infractions for 969 yards in 13 games.
Though this won’t decide a game by itself, it could be the difference-maker if it’s tight.
In the 31-24 loss to Arizona, the Ducks were penalized on back-to-back plays on the Wildcats’ final scoring drive—an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on a 3rd-and-goal from the Oregon 8-yard line followed up by a pass interference call on the next play. Arizona scored three plays later, breaking a 24-24 tie with fewer than three minutes remaining on the clock.
Compare this to Florida State, averaging 48.8 penalty yards per game, 25.7 yards fewer than Oregon.
Florida State-Oregon: 43 Percent on Opponents' 3rd-Down Conversions
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Florida State ranks No. 101 in opponents' third-down conversions this season, giving up a first down 86 times on 200 attempts (43 percent) and 29-of-60 (48.3 percent) in its last four outings.
This included giving up 55.6 percent in the near miss at Miami (Fla.) and 57.1 percent in the 20-17 win over Boston College.
It sets up for an interesting matchup against an Oregon team that ranks No. 6 in the FBS in third-down conversions, successful on 89-of-174 attempts (51.2 percent). This includes posting 60 percent or better in wins over FCS South Dakota, Wyoming, Washington, Stanford and Colorado.
Florida State-Oregon: 17 Interceptions Thrown
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Did you know that after throwing only 10 interceptions in 14 games last year Jameis Winston has thrown 17 in 12 starts this season?
Included were two-plus picks versus Oklahoma State, NC State, Louisville (three), Virginia and Florida (four).
Florida State’s 19 team interceptions ranks No. 123 among the 128 FBS teams; only Idaho, Fresno State, UNLV and New Mexico State have thrown more.
Oregon’s defense has only 11 interceptions this season, but safety Erick Dargan has six picks, tying him for the seventh-most in the nation.
Florida State-Oregon: 92.6 Percent Scoring Inside the 20
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If you want to know how Florida State has managed to go undefeated again this season, look at their performance in the red zone.
The Noles rank No. 5 in the nation at scoring inside the 20, converting a whopping 50 of its total 54 visits this season. It doesn’t hurt that they have No. 3 kicker in college football, Roberto Aguayo, who is 25-of-27 on field-goal attempts (92.6 percent).
The Seminoles have been 100 percent successful inside the 20 in nine of its 13 games.
This matches up really well versus Oregon, a team has allowed opponents points inside the 20 on 41 of 49 visits (83.7 percent), No. 76 in the nation.
Florida State-Oregon: 131 Long Pass Plays Allowed
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Only 12 teams in college football have given up more long pass plays than Oregon. The Ducks have coughed up 131 pass plays of 10-plus yards, 40 plays of 20-plus, 16 plays of 30-plus, eight plays of 40-plus and five plays of 50-plus.
It’s no coincidence that the Ducks gave up 11 pass plays of 10-plus yards in its 31-24 loss to Arizona, a number that included three plays of 20-plus and plays of 34 and 54 yards.
This is a scary proposition against a Florida State offense that ranks No. 8 in the nation in pass plays of 10-plus yards (153). Included are 51 plays of 20-plus yards, 24 of 30-plus, 14 of 40-plus and seven of 50-plus.
Alabama-Ohio State: 3rd-Down Conversion Rate
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The common thread in both Alabama and Ohio State’s sole losses this season is a failure to convert on third down. The Buckeyes converted a season-low 25 percent in its defeat to Virginia Tech; the Crimson Tide posted a 37.5 percent (the third-worst mark of the season) in their loss to Ole Miss.
Compare this to the season averages for both: Alabama at 53.8 percent (No. 3 in the FBS) and Ohio State 51.5 percent (No. 5).
This puts the pressure squarely on both defenses. The Tide rank No. 31 in opponents' third-down conversions (36 percent) while the Buckeyes rank No. 34 (36.3 percent).
Alabama allowed a 42.9 percent conversion rate in its loss to Ole Miss; Ohio State gave up a 52.9 percent rate in the defeat to Virginia Tech.
Alabama-Ohio State: No. 117 on Opponent’s Red-Zone Touchdown Percentage
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While Ohio State hasn’t been all that good at stopping opponents from scoring inside the 20 (83.8 percent, No. 77), it’s been awful at preventing red-zone touchdowns (70.3 percent, No. 117).
Only 11 teams in the entire nation have been worse.
Virginia Tech was 4-of-4 inside the red zone versus the Buckeyes, scoring touchdowns every time it was inside the 20.
This sets up well for Alabama, an offense that has scored touchdowns on 68.3 percent of its visits to the red zone, No. 21 in the nation.
The Tide has scored touchdowns on all nine of its visits inside the 20 in its last two outings, wins over No. 15 Auburn and No. 16 Missouri.
Alabama-Ohio State: 60 Percent on Field-Goal Attempts
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If the Alabama-Ohio State game is close—or if the winner advances to a closely-contested national championship game—things could get dicey.
Both teams have struggled with place kicking this year. The Tide’s sophomore Adam Griffith is 12-of-19 (63.2 percent) on field-goal attempts (No. 96 in the nation), while the Buckeye’s freshman Sean Nuernberger is 11-of-18 (61.1 percent, No. 105).
Griffith went 1-of-3 in the loss to Ole Miss, while Nuernberger went 0-of-2 in the loss to Virginia Tech.
Alabama-Ohio State: 21 Defensive Interceptions
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Alabama quarterback Blake Sims has only thrown seven interceptions this season, a performance that included zero mistakes in eight starts.
When Sims has erred, it’s been costly, throwing a pick on the final drive in the loss to Ole Miss and three in the 55-44 nail-biter versus Auburn.
The margin for error will be narrow against an Ohio State defense that ranks No. 4 in team interceptions (21). Only Louisiana Tech (26), Louisville (25) and TCU (23) have more.
Potential game-changers in the Buckeye's secondary are cornerback Doran Grant and safety Vonn Bell, with five picks apiece this season.
Alabama-Ohio State: 1.1 Yards Per Carry
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While it’s intriguing to debate whether Cardale Jones can effectively replace J.T. Barrett as a passer, the more important question might be Jones’ effectiveness as a rusher.
Barrett averaged 5.5 yards on his 171 carries this season, No. 10 among quarterbacks and just inches away from Oregon’s Marcus Mariota’s 5.7 mark.
This is a significant number for a Buckeye offense that ranks No. 51 in passing offense versus No. 11 in rushing yards.
Jones averaged a measly 1.1 yards on eight carries of his only collegiate start, a stat that is easily forgotten given it came in the 59-0 blowout of Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game.
Throw in Alabama’s No. 1-ranked rushing defense and you get the picture. Ohio State needs to have a quarterback who can run the ball.
Statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com.
