Ultimate Chaos Scenarios for College Football Playoff

Tuesday's College Football Playoff rankings—the final such release before next Sunday's official announcement—were the most talked-about standings to date. The reason is simple: They were the most surprising.

And you thought you'd seen controversy.

Florida State, the only unbeaten team in the entire Football Bowl Subdivision, fell one more spot from No. 3 to No. 4 after another narrow win against Florida. But that pales in comparison to the bigger story: TCU sits comfortably at No. 3, while Baylor is on the outside looking in at No. 6.

It would be unfathomable for the committee to leave an undefeated Seminoles team out of the playoff; the Baylor-TCU debate is far more compelling because of the possibility that they're named co-champions of the Big 12. The Big 12, for what it's worth, will not officially recommend a team to the committee.

Most notably, the committee feels that TCU is not only better than Baylor, despite losing to the Bears 61-58 on Oct. 11, but better by a sizable margin. Not since "Team Edward" and "Team Jacob" of The Twilight Saga have lines been so definitively drawn.

But the irony of this heated debate over who is better...or more deserving...or both, is that it makes the assumption that everyone wins out. Given that there hasn't been a dominant team all year, that's a dangerous assumption to make. What was revealed Tuesday may not come close to registering on the chaos meter if Week 15 goes up in flames.

What happens if Florida State loses to Georgia Tech in the ACC championship? How about if Oregon loses to Arizona for the second time this season in the Pac-12 title? What if everyone loses? With the exception of TCU's game against Iowa State, how confident is any fanbase right now about its team's chances?

Here are the official point spreads for this weekend's key games, courtesy of Odds Shark. Below, let's explore some playoff possibilities if those spreads don't go the way Vegas predicts.

Game	Title	Line
Arizona vs. Oregon	Pac-12 Championship	Arizona (+14.5)
Iowa State vs. TCU	Big 12 Co-Championship	Iowa State (+34)
Missouri vs. Alabama	SEC Championship	Missouri (+14.5)
Kansas State vs. Baylor	Big 12 Co-Championship	No Line
Florida State vs. Georgia Tech	ACC Championship	Georgia Tech (+4.5)
Wisconsin vs. Ohio State	Big Ten Championship	Ohio State (+4)

If Alabama, Florida State and Oregon Lose...

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

The Seminoles are out without so much as a goodbye hug. The committee has made it clear, without actually coming out and saying so, that it will drop a one-loss Florida State like a stone.

Oregon could be out too and replaced by No. 7 Arizona. The Wildcats are the highest-ranked two-loss team, which also indicates the committee is ready to slide them up with a win. Should Arizona pull the upset again, it will have defeated Oregon twice, with its two losses—to USC and UCLA—by a combined 12 points. Not too shabby.

The wild card is Alabama. It seems unlikely that Missouri would jump 12 spots from No. 16, even if it won the SEC title. As B/R colleague Barrett Sallee wrote last week, the SEC's playoff hopes ride on the Tide; however, Alabama would likely need help by way of more upsets elsewhere if it lost to the Tigers.

Even though Baylor won the head-to-head game with TCU, the committee has been far more critical of the Bears. That final spot could come down to a close battle between Baylor and Alabama.

Projected Playoff Field: 1) TCU, 2) Arizona, 3) Ohio State, 4) Baylor

If Baylor, Ohio State and TCU Lose...

Jamie Sabau/Getty Images

For one, Ohio State and the Big Ten would be done. The Virginia Tech loss has been keeping the Buckeyes from breaking into the top four. Losing two games, perhaps coupled with quarterback J.T. Barrett's season-ending ankle injury, would be enough to eliminate Ohio State.

We'd also be able to settle the Baylor-TCU debate. Like a frustrated parent with bickering children, the committee could say, "You know what? Both of you go to your rooms."

The interesting thing to watch would be whether the committee replaces TCU with Kansas State. In this scenario, the Wildcats would have finished 10-2, with losses to TCU and Auburn. Furthermore, they would be the Big 12's, ahem, "One True Champion," thus saving the league millions of dollars in licensing headaches.

Projected Playoff Field: 1) Alabama, 2) Oregon, 3) Florida State, 4) Kansas State

If Alabama, Florida State and Ohio State Lose...

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

The Baylor-TCU debate may also be solved. This is the scenario that is most likely to get two Big 12 teams in the field and absolve the committee of having to explain any decision otherwise.

The team that's on the edge is Georgia Tech. Does the committee value the ACC championship? Or does it still feel like Alabama is one of the four best teams in the country even if it loses to Missouri?

Projected Playoff Field: 1) Oregon, 2) TCU, 3) Baylor, 4) Georgia Tech

If Everyone Loses...

Welp.

This would be the time for the committee to prove its mettle—or idiocy, depending almost certainly on your respective affiliation.

Here's the best guess: The top seven teams—and nine of the top 11—in the latest rankings are in a position to either win their conference or tie as conference co-champions. Committee chair Jeff Long has maintained that there is no way to project the impact of conference championships on the selection process, but the trend is there all the same.

If total chaos breaks out and there are one- and two-loss teams everywhere, a deciding factor could be conference champions.

"We've discussed to this point, and we will wait for results and then we will evaluate those teams. That's when the conference championships goes into effect," Long said, per USA Today. "We have not had discussions about, 'What if there's a conference champion.'"

The fascinating part will be if that factor is applied evenly. For instance, could Alabama be the exception to the rule and make the field even if it doesn't win the SEC? Could Arizona and Oregon get in, even though they've played twice? A win over Florida State would be huge, but could Georgia Tech make up seven spots in one week?

Projected Playoff Field: 1) Arizona, 2) Kansas State, 3) Alabama, 4) Oregon

Here's What Is Known...

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

The committee could have a difficult job, or an impossible job, depending on what happens in a handful of games Friday and Saturday. Though the season is drawing to an end, there's still so much meaningful football to be played. The days of formulas as a safety net are gone; it's up to 12 members to make four choices.

With that, good luck to all the teams out there in a position to make the playoff. Including you, "Team Chaos."

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand.