Ultimate Guide to College Football Conference Championship Weekend

The college football regular season has reached its final week.

Come Sunday, a year's worth of speculation about which four teams will make the College Football Playoff—and more than a year's worth of speculation about how it will feel to have a College Football Playoff—will be rewarded, and we will finally be given a national semifinal bracket that means something.

No more "If the season ended today…"

The season will have already ended.

But a lot can change between now and Sunday. The top eight teams in Samuel Chi's mock CFP standings are playing this weekend, and five of the top seven are playing conference championship games.

Last year on conference championship weekend, undefeated Ohio State lost to Michigan State, opening the door for Auburn, which beat Missouri, to sneak into the BCS National Championship Game.

Will a new team sneak through the back door in 2014?

Only one way to find out.

MAC Championship Game

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Northern Illinois (10-2) vs. Bowling Green (7-5)

When: Friday, Dec. 5, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Where: Ford Field (Detroit)

Line: Northern Illinois (-5.5)

National Stakes

If Northern Illinois wins, it will be 11-2 with losses against Arkansas (forgivable) and Central Michigan (not as much).

That won't be enough for it to pass an 11-2 Boise State, but if the Broncos lose the Mountain West championship to Fresno State, it would certainly be enough to make NIU a favorite, along with AAC champion Memphis, for a spot in a New Year's Day Bowl.

Personal Stakes

Payback. 

Bowling Green derailed NIU's perfect season in the 2013 MAC championship game, beating the Huskies, 47-27. This year's Falcons are worse, riding into the conference title game on a two-game losing streak, but they showed with a win against Indiana—a team that won at SEC East champion Missouri!—that they at least have a decent ceiling.

Star Power

Honestly...there isn't much to speak of.

Last year's game featured Heisman finalist Jordan Lynch and prolific sophomore Matt Johnson at quarterback. But Lynch has since graduated and Johnson was lost for the year with a hip injury, which means Friday's QB matchup will pit the decidedly average Drew Hare against the decidedly below-average James Knapke.

Instead, the players to watch might be on the other side of the ball. Bowling Green linebacker Gabe Martin has 21 total tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss and one blocked field goal in the past two games, and Northern Illinois defensive end Jason Meehan, who sacked Johnson in last year's game, is second in the MAC with seven sacks.

Prediction

Maybe this is wishful thinking, since I'd much rather see Boise State or Memphis make an access bowl*, but I'll call for the moderate upset. Why not? First-year head coach Dino Babers has not fielded the offense he dreamed of when he came to Bowling Green from Eastern Illinois this season, but I think he gets it done on the big stage.

The Pick: Bowling Green (+5.5)

*To clarify: Stylistically, I'd much rather see Boise State or Memphis make an Access Bowl. It's not like I have anything against Northern Illinois. I just think this team is kind of…what's the word…blah. 

Pac-12 Championship Game

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Arizona (10-2) vs. Oregon (11-1)

When: Friday, Dec. 5, 9 p.m. ET (Fox)

Where: Levi's Stadium (Santa Clara, California)

Line: Oregon (-13.5)

National Stakes

If Oregon wins, it's in the playoff. Comfortably in the playoff. The Ducks would be one-loss Pac-12 champions with wins over Arizona, Michigan State, UCLA, Stanford and Utah. That is a quality resume.

If Arizona wins, another spot opens, in all likelihood, for a team like TCU, Ohio State or Baylor. That qualifier is added, though, because an 11-2 Wildcats team with a pair of wins over Oregon and a Pac-12 title to its name would look a lot like a playoff contender itself.

Personal Stakes

Arizona is the new Stanford: Oregon's new kryptonite.

The Ducks proved they could beat the Cardinal earlier this year but have lost their past two games against the Wildcats. Since taking over for Chip Kelly last season, Mark Helfrich is 0-2 against Rich Rodriguez and 22-1 against every other coach in America.

The game Arizona won in Eugene, however, was played without Oregon left tackle Jake Fisher. Fisher is only one player, but Oregon was unrecognizable without him. He proved to be what Dave Dameshek of NFL.com would call a Jenga piece, and Oregon has been coasting off his absence as an excuse these past two months.

Let's see how much Fisher really matters.

Star Power

It's not hyperbole to say this game might feature the two best players in the country: Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota and Arizona linebacker Scooby Wright.

Mariota is the overwhelming favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. Wright is a deserving finalist for the Bednarik Award. Mariota (190.20) is close to breaking Russell Wilson's single-season passer efficiency record (191.78). Wright (28.0) is on pace to break Jason Babin's single-season tackle-for-loss record (32.0).

It don't get much more star-studded than that.

Elsewhere, keep an eye on Oregon cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu and safety Erick Dargan, both of whom have All-Pac-12 potential. They'll be covering a deep cast of receivers led by perimeter weapons Cayleb Jones and Austin Hill and slot maven Samajie Grant.

Prediction

There's a reason this line is so high.

Even though Arizona beat Oregon in Autzen Stadium, it has been the inferior team all season. Oregon entered last week No. 2 in the F/+ ratings at Football Outsiders, trailing only Alabama. Arizona was No. 29 by the same metric, looking up at West Virginia and Duke.

Mariota is about to be the first ever unanimous Heisman winner.

The Pick: Oregon (-13.5)

Conference USA Championship Game

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Louisiana Tech (8-4) at Marshall (11-1)

When: Saturday, Dec. 6, noon ET (ESPN2)

Where: Joan C. Edwards Stadium (Huntington, West Virgina)

Line: Marshall (-12.5)

National Stakes

Negligible.

Marshall might have been playing for a spot in an access bowl if it hadn't lost to Western Kentucky last weekend. But now its chances of making one are cooked. Even if they finish 12-1, the way in which the Thundering Herd lost that game, allowing Brandon Doughty to throw for eight touchdowns, was too much to overcome.

Personal Stakes

Nonexistent.

Marshall and Louisiana Tech have met just once in program history, and that was all the way back in 1942. The Bulldogs moved over to C-USA when the WAC disbanded a couple of years ago and have yet to play the Herd in the regular season.

Marshall will be playing to exorcise some personal demons—Rice beat it, 41-24, in last year's conference title game, so it is looking for redemption—but that has nothing to do with Louisiana Tech.

Star Power

The national stakes are negligible. The personal stakes are nonexistent. But that doesn't mean you shouldn't be watching this game. You should be; and you should be for one very specific reason.

Marshall quarterback Rakeem Cato.

Cato is one of the most fun-to-watch players of our time, but he's played so few games on a national stage. This and Marshall's bowl game will be his encores. And as good as he's been these past three seasons, it's not like the 6'1" Cato will be playing in the NFL next year. This is literally one of your last two chances to catch him.

Also worth catching are Cato's favorite target, Tommy Shuler, and Louisiana Tech defensive backs Xavier Woods and Adairius Barnes. The former is a senior and one of the best slot receivers in the country. The latter are the only pair of teammates in the country that have at least five interceptions apiece this season.

Prediction

Last year, Marshall played its best game of the regular season before the C-USA title game, blowing out East Carolina, 59-28. Then it laid that egg against Rice. This year, then, let's call for the reverse. The egg has already been flushed from Marshall's system.

The Pick: Marshall (-12.5)

SEC Championship Game

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Alabama (11-1) vs. Missouri (10-2)

When: Saturday, Dec. 6, 4 p.m. ET (CBS)

Where: Georgia Dome (Atlanta)

Line: Alabama (-14)

National Stakes

Alabama was No. 1 in the CFP rankings before beating Auburn in the Iron Bowl and will likely finish the season there if it beats up on Missouri. A loss, however, would effectively eliminate the Crimson Tide from contention and put the SEC in a weird spot.

Its two-loss champion, Missouri, lost a nonconference home game to Indiana and got blown out by Georgia. Would that preclude the Tigers from making the playoff? And if so, could a team such as Mississippi State sneak back in? The alternative would be leaving the SEC out of the national semifinal, which many—this author included—would say is punishing the conference for its depth and parity.

Please, Alabama. Just do us all a favor and take care of business.

It would make this a whole lot less messy.

Personal Stakes

Alabama and Missouri have met just once as SEC opponents. The Crimson Tide traveled to Columbia and laid a 42-10 whooping on the Tigers during the latter's first season in the conference. T.J. Yeldon rushed for 144 yards and two touchdowns, Amari Cooper caught four passes for 41 yards and Alabama out-gained Mizzou, 533-129.

Further complicating matters is the connection between Alabama head coach Nick Saban and Missouri head coach Gary Pinkel. The duo played and served as graduate assistants together at Kent State in the early 1970s. Pinkel's first head-coaching job was in 1991 at Toledo, replacing Saban after he left to become the defensive coordinator of the Cleveland Browns.

"Gary and I have always been good friends," Saban said on the SEC championship teleconference, per Drew Champlin of AL.com. "I have a lot of respect for Gary and what he's done in his coaching career."

Star Power

Alabama receiver Amari Cooper—mentioned above but restated in full because...well...he deserves to have his name bolded—leads all power-conference players with 131 receiving yards per game. He and running back T.J. Yeldon—same deal as Cooper—are shifty in space and make opponents pay for improper tackling.

Fortunately, Missouri knows how to tackle. Defensive ends Shane Ray and Markus Golden are the best pass-rushing combo in the country, and linebacker Kentrell Brothers has emerged as one of the best run-stoppers in the conference.

Prediction

The book on beating Alabama is simple to understand but difficult to execute. Namely, it involves having big, strong, fast wide receivers such as Kevin White, Laquon Treadwell, Sammie Coates and D'haquille Williams who can beat Alabama's cornerbacks down the field.

Last year's Missouri team—the one led by big, strong, fast wide receivers such as Dorial Green-Beckham and L'Damian Washington—was ideally suited to beat the 2014 Crimson Tide. This year's Missouri team is not. It's hard to see how the Tigers score more than 14 points in Atlanta. Even getting 10 might be a struggle.

And that won't be enough to get by.

The Pick: Alabama (-14)

ACC Championship Game

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Florida State (12-0) vs. Georgia Tech (10-2)

When: Saturday, Dec. 6, 8 p.m. ET (ABC)

Where: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)

Line: Florida State (-3.5)

National Stakes

Florida State is the only undefeated team in college football. It is riding a 28-game winning streak and will make the playoff—despite its well-documented struggles—with a win over Georgia Tech.

If the Seminoles lose, things start to get messy. Real messy. Sam Chi of Bleacher Report predicted Georgia Tech as the No. 12 team in the next CFP rankings. If the Yellow Jackets beat Florida State and finish 11-2, they would ostensibly move into the top eight-to-10.

In that case, Florida State would be 12-1, with its only loss coming on a neutral field against a top-10 opponent. No matter what happens elsewhere, it will be hard to find a better resume than that. Florida State will either (a) finish undefeated and make the playoff or (b) finish with one loss to a team that was good enough to beat Florida State.

Either way, the #ZombieNoles won't be dead.

Personal Stakes

This is a rematch of the 2012 ACC championship—the one Georgia Tech backed into when North Carolina (NCAA sanctions) and Miami (self-imposed sanctions) were both unable to play in the postseason.

The Yellow Jackets hung tough in that matchup, fighting back from a 21-3 deficit to lose, 21-15. They had the ball and a chance to win with less than two minutes left in the game but couldn't capitalize.

Before that, though, Georgia Tech head coach Paul Johnson was 2-0 against the Seminoles, having beaten them in 2008 and 2009. Jimbo Fisher was the offensive coordinator of those Florida State teams, but it was the defense, which allowed 80 combined points, that cost FSU those games.

Star Power

Florida State has star power to spare. Jameis Winston is the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. Rashad Green is the leading receiver in Florida State history. Jalen Ramsey is a heat-seeking missile at whatever position the Seminoles decide to play him.

Good luck trying to stop all of that.

The Yellow Jackets are a balanced team more than a star-laden team, but they do have a few players worth watching. QB Justin Thomas—who at one point was committed to play defensive back at Alabama—has been a revelation running the triple-option offense. Running back Zach Laskey is a bull. And linebackers Paul Davis and Quayshawn Nealy have been magnets for big plays all season.

Prediction

Georgia Tech entered Week 14 with the No. 1 offense in the country, per the F/+ ratings. Where it excels—running the football—is precisely where the Seminoles struggle. I won't call for Florida State to lose because, at this point, you would have to be crazy to do so. But you would also have to be crazy to call for a blowout.

The Pick: Georgia Tech (+3.5) 

Big Ten Championship Game

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Wisconsin (10-2) vs. Ohio State (11-1)

When: Saturday, Dec. 6, 8:17 p.m. ET (Fox)

Where: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)

Line: Wisconsin (-4)

National Stakes

Ohio State needs a win to make the playoff. That much we have known for a while. And style points would have always been a factor.

But now, style points have become a huge factor. The loss of quarterback J.T. Barrett, who fractured his ankle last week against Michigan, has cast the Buckeyes' playoff viability into doubt. If they win ugly against Wisconsin, their resume, on paper, would likely be good enough for inclusion. But no one wants an ugly team in the playoff.

Especially not the first playoff.

All eyes will be focused on Cardale Jones and the OSU offense.

Personal Stakes

Wisconsin has lost to Ohio State in each of the past three seasons, never by more than one score. Last year, it out-gained the Buckeyes, 399-390, in Columbus but lost by a touchdown, 31-24.

The Badgers, though, are 2-0 in Big Ten championship games since the league split divisions in 2011. It beat Michigan State, 42-39, in 2011 and Nebraska, 70-31, in 2012. Ohio State is 0-1 in Big Ten championship games, having lost to Michigan State, 34-24, last season.

Star Power

This was supposed to be a battle of Heisman contenders between Barrett and Melvin Gordon. Now, it is only Gordon. If Wisconsin's workhorse back plays well, however, this game might still have Heisman implications. A Badgers win, coupled with an Oregon (Marcus Mariota) loss, would give Gordon a real shot to take it.

The biggest obstacle for Gordon to clear—literally—is Ohio State's all-world defensive line, a unit anchored by tackle Michael Bennett and end Joey Bosa. Bosa had his way with Michigan State in last year's Big Ten title game and has only gotten better as a sophomore.

Barrett or no Barrett, the presence of Gordon and Bosa means a pair of All-Americans will share the field on Saturday.

Prediction

Wisconsin is a four-point favorite, which seems like a lot. Even with Jones under center, Ohio State probably has the better quarterback. Wisconsin's Joel Stave was benched for much of the season and had an infamous bout of the "yips" during fall camp. That does not sound like a healthy formula when one is about to play Bosa.

The Pick: Ohio State (+4)

Mountain West Championship Game

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Fresno State (6-6) vs. Boise State (10-2)

When: Saturday, Dec. 6, 10 p.m. ET (CBS)

Where: Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)

Line: Boise State (-19.5)

National Stakes

Boise State debuted at No. 23 in last week's CFP rankings and stands to move up after drilling Utah State, 50-19. Even before Marshall lost to Western Kentucky, the Broncos appeared to control their own fate. Now, that control is a near certainty. All they need is one more win and they'll be playing on New Year's Day.

Personal Stakes

Boise State beat Fresno State, 37-27, on the blue turf earlier this season. But considering how both teams have played in their other 11 games, that result is actually encouraging for the Bulldogs.

Last year, a (much, much) better Fresno State team beat Boise State, 41-40, in one of the best games that no one remembers. The Broncos fought back from a 34-19 deficit to take a 40-34 lead, only to see that lead disappear when Fresno State scored a touchdown with 2:14 left to play.

The Bulldogs are seeking a second straight conference title.

Star Power

Jay Ajayi, Jay Ajayi, Jay Ajayi.

A player so nice, we've bolded him thrice.

Boise State's junior running back is one of the best players in the country and an absolute joy to watch. He has the frame of Eddie Lacy but the wild, runabout legs of Reggie Bush. He and quarterback Grant Hedrick steer a much-improved Boise State offense, while sophomore defensive end Kamalei Correa, who sits atop the Mountain West with 9.5 sacks, leads a defense that can really get after the passer.

Fresno State's passing game is a shell of what it was in 2013, but receiver Josh Harper has turned in a pretty nice season, all things considered. On defense, safety Derron Smith does his best to keep an otherwise underwhelming group from giving up too many points.

Prediction

Boise State beat Fresno State by a combined score of 108-7 in 2010 and 2011. Since then, though, these games have always been close. Even in what's been a pretty awful year for the Bulldogs, the Broncos could not beat them by more than 10 points. In a vacuum, Boise State is three touchdowns better. But I guess I'll go with the trend.

The Pick: Fresno State (+19.5)

Big 12 Regular-Season Finales

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Iowa State at TCU (-32)

Saturday, Dec. 6, 12 p.m. ET (ABC)

TCU is playing for everything. Iowa State is playing for nothing. The Cyclones played Kansas State and Texas—and even, in some ways, Baylor—pretty close this season but appear to have folded as of late. Their last road game was a 34-14 loss at Kansas.

As long as the Horned Frogs show up, they should take care of business. From there, their fate will be decided by a higher power.

The Pick: TCU (-32)

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (-20)

Saturday, Dec. 6, 3:30 p.m. ET (Fox Sports 1)

Oklahoma State has lost five straight games after starting the year 5-1. It needs this win to make a bowl game for the ninth consecutive year.

But Oklahoma needs this game also: The difference between a 9-3 regular season and an 8-4 regular season is more profound than just one game. It keeps a 10-win season firmly in play.

The Sooners upset OSU in Stillwater last year, costing the Cowboys the Big 12 championship. Mike Gundy doesn't have the horses to return a similar favor, but he's good enough to keep this one close.

The Pick: Oklahoma State (+20)

Kansas State at Baylor (N/A)

Saturday, Dec. 6, 7:45 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Baylor spoiled Kansas State's dream season two years ago, upsetting Collin Klein and the then-No. 1-ranked Wildcats, 52-24.

Last year, though, Bill Snyder's team was the first to hang with the Bears for four quarters, implementing a smart game plan in a 35-25 defeat. And three years ago, during Robert Griffin III's Heisman season, Kansas State beat Baylor straight up, 36-35.

Snyder is one of the few coaches who can match wits with Art Briles' offense. He did it against Gus Malzahn's offense earlier this season, and his team has gotten better every week since. Even if Bryce Petty plays—the spread is unlisted as he undergoes concussion testing—Kansas State is disciplined enough to throw a wrinkle into Week 15.

The Pick: n/a (Kansas State to win straight up)

All spreads courtesy of Odds Shark unless otherwise noted.