Bowl Projections 2014: Playoff Predictions, Odds Before Rivalry Clashes

Friday saw UCLA’s College Football Playoff hopes go up in smoke, and we are bound to see more flames Saturday with a number of rivalry showdowns on the immediate horizon. 

Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State, Mississippi State and Oregon all square off with their bitter rivals as significant favorites, but rivalry games have a tricky way of eliciting surprising results. After all, Ohio State and Oregon beat overmatched Michigan and Oregon State squads, respectively, by a combined two points last season.

With that in mind, read on to see the latest playoff projections from StatMilk, championship odds from Odds Shark and my own playoff predictions before Saturday’s schedule kicks off.

(Note: As the table header indicates, the logo shown at the far right of each team's row is for that team's next opponent and not for the ranked team itself.)

StatMilk and Odds Shark Playoff Projections and Odds

Team	Odds
Alabama	19/10
Oregon	77/20
Florida State	15/2
Mississippi State	10/1
Ohio State	6/1
TCU	8/1
Baylor	8/1

*Odds to win national championship courtesy of Odds Shark, as of Friday night at 10 p.m. ET.

Scott Polacek's Playoff Projections

Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State

Rose Bowl: No. 2 Florida State vs. No. 3 Oregon

Championship Bowl (in Arlington, Texas): TBD (semifinal winners)

Non-Rivalry Playoff Game to Watch: Baylor vs. Texas Tech

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Five of the top six teams in the most recent College Football Playoff rankings will be taking on their archrival Saturday, and TCU already beat Texas on Thanksgiving. Baylor’s battle with Texas Tech won’t draw the headlines that those rivalry clashes will, but it is just as important in the playoff rankings.

The Bears’ clash with the Red Raiders will take place in the Dallas Cowboys’ stadium Saturday, which seemed to work for Baylor quarterback Bryce Petty, according to The Associated Press, via ESPN.com:

"It's where the Cowboys play. It's always cool to play in that place because of what it brings and who plays there. That's where we all want to be, playing on Sundays. You're playing on the same field they are, so you love the whole emotion and the setting."

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

The fact that the game is indoors with no weather conditions could be a problem for Texas Tech’s defense. Baylor boasts the nation’s top scoring offense at a ridiculous 50 points a game and has scored 60 or more points four times already this year. By contrast, the Red Raiders have allowed more than 30 points nine times this season. 

A major reason why Baylor has put up points like it has is the wide receiver corps, which impressed Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury, via Baylor Football:

Texas Tech is 125th in the nation in scoring defense at 40.6 points allowed per game. That number is bound to go up against the Bears Saturday.

On the other side, the Red Raiders are sixth in the country in passing yards per game, so they should be able to put up some points, but it won’t be nearly enough to match Baylor’s production.

Style points will be important for the Bears because they are No. 7 in the College Football Playoff rankings. They need to catch up to TCU, especially after the Horned Frogs racked up an impressive showing Thursday against Texas. If Baylor continues to win, its head-to-head victory over TCU could come into play when deciding the final rankings.

Baylor also needs more style points in the race for the No. 4 seed with Ohio State because the Buckeyes have the chance to be outright Big Ten champions with a win over Wisconsin or Minnesota in Indianapolis.

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

The selection committee will give more credence to conference titles at the end of the season, so Baylor needs to impress as much as possible during the regular season.

It will start Saturday in a blowout win over Texas Tech. 

Prediction: Baylor 61, Texas Tech 27

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