Samuel Chi's Mock College Football Playoff Standings: Week 10

Samuel Chi@@ThePlayoffGuruCollege Football Playoff GuruOctober 27, 2014

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The selection committee will unveil its first-ever College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday night. With that, all other polls and rankings will be rendered meaningless. 

Unlike the BCS standings, where a combination of polls and computer rankings are used, the committee's rankings are not mathematically projectable. Unless you can get inside the cranium (or the trash cans) of the 12 committee members, you will not know how they arrive at their respective rankings. In fact, since it's done by secret ballot, even their fellow committee members won't know how they voted.

But we'll press on with our own rankings, and come Tuesday night, we'll see how close they resemble what's put out by the committee. While the committee won't be projecting the New Year's Six bowl bids, we'll do that anyway as a public service.

  

The Rankings

Samuel Chi's Mock CFP Standings
RankTeamAP PollComputerSoSCFP Score
1Miss State12.6717.9570
2Alabama33.733.8988
3Auburn43.412.8985
4Florida State26.6941.8652
5Ole Miss73.847.8419
6Oregon58.5834.7727
7Georgia98.6022.7584
8Notre Dame612.5036.6983
9TCU109.9648.6946
10Michigan State811.5963.6717
11Kansas State1112.4237.6372
12LSU1610.929.5881
13Baylor1216.5954.5329
14Nebraska1713.4058.4997
15Oklahoma1914.9411.4838
16Ohio State1346.9960.4783
See <a href="http://www.bcsguru.com/2014_cfp_standings.htm">complete standings</a>

(See methodology of standings)

The Playoff Teams

1. Mississippi State

The Bulldogs should be the undisputed top-ranked team. They are one of only three undefeated teams with by far the best resume of the trio. But Mississippi State is in no position to relax, as its toughest two remaining games—against Alabama and Ole Miss—are both on the road.

Projected bowl: Playoff at Sugar Bowl

4. Florida State

While FSU might be behind three SEC West teams in the standings, it's best positioned to run the table and snag a playoff berth. There's no question the defending national champs will have a chance to continue their repeat quest as long as they run through the soft underbelly of the ACC unscathed.

Projected bowl: Playoff at Rose Bowl

6. Oregon

The Ducks have had their mulligan but probably won't get a second one. Plenty of work still lies ahead, including next week's game against Stanford, which denied Oregon the Pac-12 North title the past two seasons. But the strength of the Pac-12 will work in the Ducks' favor and put them in the playoff if they manage to win the conference.

Projected bowl: Playoff at Rose Bowl

8. Notre Dame

For the time being, the Irish are just a hair ahead of the other contenders for the final playoff spot. They still have high-profile games against Arizona State and USC remaining, but they're susceptible to be bumped by another one-loss conference champion no matter how they finish.

Projected bowl: Playoff at Sugar Bowl

Projected New Year's Six Bowls
GameMatchup
Sugar Bowl (Playoff)Mississippi State (SEC) vs. Notre Dame
Rose Bowl (Playoff)Florida State (ACC) vs. Oregon (Pac-12)
Cotton BowlAlabama (SEC) vs. TCU (Big 12)
Fiesta BowlAuburn (SEC) vs. Michigan State (Big Ten)
Orange BowlOle Miss (SEC) vs. Clemson (ACC)
Peach BowlKansas State (Big 12) vs. Marshall (C-USA)*
* Group-of-five bid

The First Four Out

2,3,5,7. Other SEC Teams

The SEC is angling to get a second team into the four-team playoff field. The path is open, but it's far from a foregone conclusion simply because all these teams still must face each other multiple times. The most likely scenario to produce a second SEC berth is for Georgia to win out and then upset an unbeaten or one-loss SEC West champion in the conference title game. 

Projected bowls: Cotton, Fiesta and Orange

9. TCU

For now, TCU is mere percentage points behind Notre Dame in our standings for the final playoff spot. The Horned Frogs actually should be able to leapfrog the Irish should they remain unbeaten the rest of the way. If they can get through the next two weeks without a loss—at West Virginia and home to Kansas State—they will be heavily favored to claim at least a piece of the Big 12 title.

Projected bowl: Cotton Bowl

10. Michigan State

The Spartans' beatdown of their cross-state rivals might've generated a lot of headlines, but that did little to improve their playoff prospects. MSU remains on the outside of the four-team field primarily because of its early season loss at Oregon and the weakness of the Big Ten.

Projected bowl: Fiesta Bowl

11/13. Kansas State/Baylor

The Big 12's lack of a signature win over a nonconference opponent will leave its champion scratching for a playoff spot. These two teams have an outside chance to steal a berth if the winner in their season finale ends up claiming the conference title in the event of a TCU stumble.

Projected bowl: Peach Bowl

Other Fun Facts

* Marshall, by virtue of being the only unbeaten non-power-five team, has seized the inside track to the group-of-five berth. East Carolina's strength-of-schedule advantage has been largely nullified at this point because of its power-five opponents' recent struggles. The only other teams in the mix are one-loss Colorado State and two-loss Boise State and Central Florida.

* The ACC might end up with more berths in the New Year's Six bowls than the Pac-12, Big Ten and/or Big 12 thanks to its tie-in with the Orange Bowl. Should Florida State earn a playoff berth as projected, a second ACC team will get in despite the fact that no other conference team is ranked in the Top 15. Clemson is still favored for this bid, just ahead of Coastal Division leader Duke.

* With Ole Miss' loss at LSU, the dreaded circular three-way tie in the SEC West might've been avoided. Now, should there be a tie of three one-loss teams, head-to-head results likely will be enough to resolve the matter instead of having to dive deep into these procedures.

Follow on Twitter @ThePlayoffGuru

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