Mark Blaudschun's Blitz: Beware the Sleeping Tigers of LSU
They lost a game to Mississippi State, and the entire state went viral. They lost another game at Auburn, and people started preparing eulogies for a program that appeared to be heading south.
The mighty SEC again occupies the prime real estate in the AP Top 25—three of the top four spots amid a total of seven ranked teams this week—but a familiar name is missing: LSU.
A 41-7 loss to Auburn last week dropped Les Miles' Tigers out of the rankings for the first time since November 2008, a run of 87 consecutive weeks. LSU is 0-2 in the SEC, which hasn’t happened since 2001. The once-impenetrable John Chavis-coached defense, a cornerstone for LSU’s championship-contending teams, was punctured for a combined 1,136 yards in the losses to Mississippi State and Auburn, part of the price of losing half of last year’s defensive line to the NFL.
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LSU’s critics—just check the message boards on TigerDroppings.com—are saying that even becoming bowl eligible (six wins) might be a tough fight, considering the back half of the schedule includes games against No. 3 Ole Miss, No. 7 Alabama and No. 14 Texas A&M.
So have LSU and Miles, the Mad Hatter himself, lost their magic touch?
Nope.
This downturn will be a one-year blip, if that, on the radar, and Mike the Tiger and his streak will soon be on the prowl again in Tiger Stadium. Here's why:
The problem for LSU is not talent-related. The Tigers had the nation’s No. 2 recruiting class last year and No. 6 class the year before, according to Rivals. But the young Tigers—especially those playing key roles in the skill positions—have had some growing pains that have left LSU slow to replace the program’s numerous departed stars.
Freshman quarterback Brandon Harris, who is battling sophomore Anthony Jennings for the starting nod against Florida this week, was a 4-star recruit, but his starting debut against Auburn was a washout. The freshman finished just 3-of-14 against a team which played for the national championship a year ago and had six defensive starters returning.
Running back Leonard Fournette and wide receiver Malachi Dupre, both 5-star recruits, have also had bumpy starts.
"It's awfully tough to win in that competition with a freshman QB," a Miles confidant told Bleacher Report. "There's no question they will be back. Les gets talent every year, and he coaches them up well enough to get to the NFL."
Admittedly, the bar is high at LSU. Since 2010, the Tigers have posted an overall record of 48-11. In the past 12 years, they have played in three BCS title games and won two national championships.
Lately the talent has been so good that it has moved through the system quicker than expected. In the past two years, 18 LSU players have left early for the NFL draft. Two years ago, 11 Tigers jumped to the NFL.
"We led college football in three-and-outs," Miles said at the SEC media days this summer. "It's a real challenge for any program to lose junior and senior classes."
So the coach knew he faced an uphill battle this season, well before the loss to Mississippi State that surprised so many.
This week, Miles was asked if he knew how difficult it would be to maintain LSU's status with a continuing flow of new talent.
"In other situations, I would think it would be very difficult," he said at his press briefing. "But at LSU, I think we would have great opportunities. I think that we have quality personnel, and I think that's the difference. It's just [a matter of] making that adjustment."
Yes, the "adjustment" has been painful.
A year ago, the Tigers dealt with a huge defensive rebuilding because of NFL attrition, but they had offensive veterans such as quarterback Zach Mettenberger and wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry to fight back. LSU won by outscoring everyone. Not this year.
These Tigers are aware of the criticism. On Monday, they held a "players only" meeting, where they took full responsibility. "It's one of those meetings that [we said] we can decide our own destiny," defensive end Danielle Hunter told the New Orleans Times-Picayune. "It's either step up now or keep going down the drain."
Added Dupre: "I just think we need to grow as a team in all phases of the game...and just get better. Because the games won't get any easier for us."
It will be a tough fight to get the Tigers back into attack mode and quiet their disgruntled fans. But they also know they are in almost a "must-win" situation each week, starting Saturday at The Swamp.
They are talented enough, and each SEC game is like dog years in terms of experience. They are growing up quickly.
Nap time for these Tigers is over.
Just Asking
1. Will Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott make it to New York as a Heisman finalist?
Absolutely. Everything is in place. A repeat of last week's efforts in the win over Texas A&M (five total TDs) will push him that much closer. As Prescott said of the victory, it was "a Mississippi State-ment."
Prescott has the exposure necessary. He is playing on a Top 5 team, and he has the numbers—13 TD passes, six rushing TDs, 1,713 total yards. A big win over Auburn would do much to seal the deal as a Heisman front-runner.
2. Will Arizona play like a national contender or a Pac-12 team?
A Pac-12 team. That means the Wildcats will find a way to lose a game people think they should win. This unbeaten team went from unranked to No. 10 in one week thanks to its 31-24 road win over then-No. 2 Oregon.
Next up is 3-2 USC. Warning. The unranked Trojans visit Tucson on Saturday and are favored, per OddsShark.com.
What's with the Pac-12 teams not closing the deal in big games? Last week, four ranked or favored Pac-12 teams all lost, killing the NCAA title chances of USC and Stanford and hurting those of Oregon and UCLA. Let's see if the Wildcats can escape that trend this week. But even if they can’t, don't count on a Pac-12 team making it to the Final Four.
3. Will Michigan State’s close call against Nebraska hurt the Spartans’ playoff hopes?
On the surface, it might seem that way. Nearly blowing a 24-point fourth-quarter lead at home is not the way to gain confidence with the selection committee. But at second glance, it probably wouldn't be a deal breaker.
Michigan State needs to win out—including the Big Ten East showdown with Ohio State and the Big Ten championship game, a possible rematch with Nebraska. At 12-1, the Spartans should be in the playoff discussion. Two wins over Nebraska and a win over Ohio State would be solid credentials.
The loss to Oregon didn't look that bad until the Ducks lost last week. But an Oregon loss to UCLA on Saturday would also hurt the Spartans.
4. How long will Florida State maintain its No. 1 ranking?
The obvious answer: until someone beats the Seminoles. And someone will. Clemson had them beat until the final seconds of regulation. North Carolina State had a third-quarter lead. But the Seminoles found a way to win both times.
Last season's team beat everyone but Boston College by an average of 45 points per game until the BCS title game, when they had to come from behind to beat Auburn. So where will the stumble come this year? I say it comes on a Thursday night (Halloween weekend) in Louisville on Oct. 30.
5. Could Baylor go 12-0 and not make the College Football Playoff?
Yes, it could. The Bears have no equity with the selection committee. Look at their nonconference schedule: SMU, FCS Northwestern State and Buffalo. Beating Oklahoma and TCU would be nice wins, but that doesn't compare with a couple of SEC one-loss teams that could emerge, an unbeaten or one-loss Notre Dame, an unbeaten or once-beaten Pac-12 team or even a one-loss Big Ten team.
It's also a matter of math. Four spots and five power conference leagues, plus Notre Dame. Baylor comes up short in the measurable—strength of schedule—and probably in the eye test. The Bears need to take care of business on Saturday against TCU, but they also need to pray for some more upsets involving teams like Notre Dame, Michigan State, Ohio State and Alabama.
Picking the Playoff Teams
My Final Four...
1. Auburn: Same script for the Tigers as last season's run to the title game?
2. Florida State: The ‘Noles will go as far as Jameis can carry them.
3. Mississippi State: Beating Auburn will create another Cowbell symphony in Starkville.
4. Mississippi: The starters are good enough, but can they overcome A&M and its 12th Man in College Station?
On the Outside Looking in...
5. Baylor: Who would have thought a game in Waco vs. TCU would be bigger than Texas vs. OU in Dallas?
6. Notre Dame: Will academic fraud issues be discussed at halftime of the UNC game?
7. Michigan State: Biding its time until a Big Ten East showdown with Ohio State in November.
8. Alabama: The loss to Mississippi hurt; seeing Auburn move ahead of the Tide in the polls is even more painful.
People of Interest
1. Jeff Driskel: With Treon Harris' suspension, embattled Florida QB gets another chance to save his job against LSU.
2. Todd Gurley: Heisman talk is replaced by media firestorm surrounding Georgia back’s suspension, the team confirmed.
3. Marcus Mariota: The quarterback’s Heisman bid and the Ducks’ playoff hopes require him to have his game face on against UCLA.
4. Deshaun Watson: If Clemson’s freshman QB had started against Florida State, the Seminoles wouldn't be No. 1 right now.
5. Brady Hoke: Another loss could seal the deal on the coach’s future at Michigan.
Weekend Predictions
1. Stanford will need to score more than 30 points to beat Washington State.
2. No Top 10 team will lose to a lower-ranked team this week.
3. Northwestern will continue to lead the Big Ten West, Cal will continue to lead the Pac-12 North, and Missouri will continue to lead the SEC East.
4. East Carolina QB Shane Carden will run his string of 400-plus-yard passing games to four against South Florida.
5. Oklahoma will leave Texas with an 0-2 record in games played in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex region.
Mark Blaudschun covers college football as a national columnist for Bleacher Report. He has more than three decades of experience covering sports at a variety of newspapers in New Jersey, The Dallas Morning News and The Boston Globe. Follow him on Twitter @blauds.
