Arizona vs. Oregon: How Wildcats' Win Reshapes Playoff Picture
For the third time in five games, Oregon found itself in a close battle deep into the second half. This time, however, the Ducks couldn't escape with a victory as Arizona scored a late touchdown to secure the upset and shake up the playoff picture.
It's a major blow to Oregon's chances of earning one of the four spots in the national semifinals. There's been a lack of high-profile upsets in the early going, something that will now need to change to shake things up before the selection committee makes its choices.
On the flip side, Arizona has inserted itself into the playoff conversation. The Wildcats were unranked in both major polls coming into the week, but the marquee victory should allow them to leapfrog a lot of teams, and they still have a couple more chances at statement wins.
Another big winner is the SEC. A conversation was already starting to heat up about whether the conference was going to deserve two spots in the final four. That talk is only going to get louder with the Pac-12's top-ranked team falling already.
So Oregon can't be totally eliminated as a playoff contender, but it will need to put together much better performances moving forward to run the table.
In terms of upsets, ESPN Stats and Info notes Thursday night's game just slides into the top 10 in terms of shock value based on the outlet's Football Power Index:
That said, it's fair to argue Arizona's triumph is the most important upset so far. It's the first game that provides a significant shake-up to a playoff picture that had remained relatively stable.
ESPN College Football provided some other notable tidbits about the result:
The biggest problem for Oregon was the offensive line. It failed to excel in either facet of the game plan, struggling to open holes for the running game and failing to keep a clean pocket for Marcus Mariota. The Heisman Trophy contender was under constant pressure all night.
Pete Thamel of Sports Illustrated remarks that, along with a defense that gave up nearly 500 total yards and failed to get enough key stops, the O-line was a much bigger problem than the officials:
Bleacher Report's Adam Kramer states the defensive letdowns shouldn't come as much of a surprise, making the lack of explosiveness on offense the deciding factor:
Ultimately, the reason for the loss is insignificant to the playoff committee. It's a loss to an unranked team, which means Oregon now becomes fans of Arizona with hope both teams can run the table and meet again for the conference title.
That would take away most of the sting from the loss and create what would likely become a play-in game for the playoffs. Of course, it's easier said than done considering the high level of competitiveness around the Pac-12.
Aslan Hodges of WAPT says it's all good news for the SEC:
"Oregon loss = door wide open for the 2nd best team in the SEC West to make the playoff, winning QB from A&M/MSU becomes favorite for Heisman
— Aslan Hodges (@AslanHodges) October 3, 2014"
The question is whether the members of the Pac-12 will beat up each other so much they end up giving the committee little choice but to pick another SEC team.
Anne M. Peterson of the Associated Press passed along post-game comments from Mariota, who praised the Wildcats and the strength of competition in the conference.
"They're undefeated," he said. "It's obviously a testament to our conference. If you're not prepared each week, if you're not ready to play, you'll lose."
It's a storyline that's only going to get more intriguing in the weeks ahead.
As for now, it appears the Pac-12 remains safe. CBS Sports college football projection guru Jerry Palm moved UCLA into the playoffs following Oregon's loss. The Bruins are joined by Alabama, Florida State and Oklahoma.
Things should be a lot more clear in about three weeks. Arizona has a key stretch of games, including clashes with UCLA and USC. Oregon and UCLA will face off. And, on Saturday, Stanford looks to avoid its second loss in a nonconference game against Notre Dame.
Once the dust settles following all of that action, the Pac-12 race should be far more established heading into the stretch run. Furthermore, the SEC teams will know their chances of having an extra bid available at the conference's expense.
After Thursday night, the margin for error is greatly reduced for Oregon, and Arizona moved itself into the contender category.
While it's only Week 6, the playoff race is already getting interesting around college football.
