Buying or Selling Every Top 10 Team as Playoff Championship Contender

Eighty percent of the Top 10 teams in the country have played a major-conference opponent, and one of the two that hasn't has played Boise State, one of the best group-of-five teams.

To wit, most of them have had to show us something to earn their current ranking. They have proved themselves worthy of their spot, giving us reason to believe they are a national title contender.

But some Top 10 teams are more worthy of that belief than others. Whether it is due to who they have beaten, how they have looked or who they still have left to play, certain Top 10 teams have stocks worth buying, while others don't.

Keep that last point—who they still have left to play—in mind as you read through these verdicts. Four teams from the SEC West made this list, and two more (LSU and Mississippi State) were not far behind. Even Arkansas, the sole SEC West team outside the national Top 25, looks frisky enough to pull an upset or two.

Only one or maybe two teams from that group will advance.

Their stocks were adjusted accordingly.

Note: All ranking info refers to the Week 5 Associated Press Poll

10. Ole Miss (3-0)

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Preseason Verdict: Strong Sell

Ole Miss played well against Boise State, its only viable competition of the season thus far, and still led only 7-6 after three quarters.

How is that possible, you ask? Stop me if you've heard this one before: Bo Wallace threw three interceptions, each one identically ugly, to kill a trio of Rebels drives and keep their offense off the board.

Wallace has looked good since that half, but it's difficult to trust him in earnest. Dr. Bo can throw you into or out of any game, but an SEC slate that includes Alabama, Texas A&M, Tennessee, LSU, Auburn, Arkansas and Mississippi State will not be as forgiving as Boise State.

Ole Miss is trending up since the start of the season, in large part because its defense has looked as good on the field as it did on paper. But it's difficult to pull the trigger and "buy" when the SEC West is as tough as it is and its quarterback is still so turnover-prone.

Beat Alabama in Week 6, though, and the Rebels will have caught my eye.

Current Verdict: Moderate Sell

9. Michigan State (2-1)

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Preseason Verdict: Strong Buy

Michigan State couldn't finish the job at Oregon a couple of weeks ago, fading in the second half to blow a nine-point third quarter lead and lose by the deceptively lopsided score of 46-27.

However, the Spartans are already back inside the national Top 10, and as Samuel Chi of Bleacher Report wrote earlier this week, the Big Ten's solid showing in Week 4 made them a big winner. If they run the table from here, do we really think they won't make the playoff?

Some might say the answer is "yes," and it's certainly possible that they're right. But it would take a lot of statistical improbabilities for that to happen. When was the last time a season has ended with four undefeated teams? What about three, or even two?

If one-loss teams are compared on the basis of their loss, it will be hard to find one more forgivable than "at Autzen Stadium in 100-degree heat." Michigan State is good enough to roll through the Big Ten and have a convincing argument at the end of December.

And from there, it would be only two games away. 

Current Verdict: Moderate Buy

8. Notre Dame (3-0)

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Preseason Verdict: Strong Sell

Notre Dame has been a pleasant surprise through four weeks of the season. Despite a hard-to-ignore academic fraud scandal that cost the Irish a handful of projected contributors, Everett Golson has led the team to three relatively easy wins in as many games.

Still, one has to think those player losses will take their toll eventually. DaVaris Daniels was supposed to be this team's No. 1 receiver, and KeiVarae Russell was supposed to be an All-America-type cornerback. This team has mitigated its losses better than expected, but that doesn't mean Notre Dame has totally plugged the gaps.

Adding to my doubt is the schedule, which still includes road games at Florida State, Navy, Arizona State and USC and home games against Stanford, North Carolina and Louisville.

Navigating that minefield at 11-1 might be enough to push Notre Dame into the playoff, but getting there would be tough. Especially after watching Michigan—Notre Dame's only "quality" opponent thus far—crumble against Utah, are we sure this team is even that good?

It might be, but I'm not willing to bank on it. Not yet, at least.

Let's see what the Irish look like against Stanford.

Current Verdict: Reluctant Sell

7. Baylor (3-0)

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Preseason Verdict: Strong Buy

Baylor has proved less this season than any team in the Top 10—and perhaps any team in America. When you play (and start a good deal of backups against) SMU, Northwestern State and Buffalo to begin your season, it is hard to decide how serious to take you.

We'll learn a teeny, tiny bit about the Bears when they travel to Iowa State this weekend and more when they travel to Texas in two weeks. Until then, though, we are still basically rehashing our preseason verdict, which in this writer's case was bullish. 

Art Briles' offense should be just as good as ever—see: backup quarterback Seth Russell leading the nation in Total QBR through four weeks—and the defensive line, led by 6'9" monster Shawn Oakman, is the best unit Baylor has had on that side of the ball since…ever?

I am in on this team until it gives me a reason not to be.

Current Verdict: Strong Buy

6. Texas A&M (4-0)

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Preseason Verdict: Strong Sell

Texas A&M beat South Carolina with ease in Week 1 and Lamar, Rice and SMU with similar ease the following three weeks. That victory over the Gamecocks is the only thing that separates it from Baylor.

As good as the Aggies—quarterback Kenny Hill in particular—have looked, though, it is still difficult for me to buy this defense as championship-worthy. It looked great against a South Carolina offense that was still trying to figure things out, but are we sure it will hold strong as the grind of the SEC West takes its toll?

We won't have to wait long for the answer. Texas A&M plays Arkansas, at Mississippi State, Ole Miss and at Alabama the next four weeks before a bye in Week 9. Even if it manages to skip through that stretch with one loss, a road trip to Auburn and home games against Missouri and LSU (two teams that beat it last year) still loom.

If Kevin Sumlin has this team playing as well as it did in 2012, it would have to be considered a great bit of coaching. A lot of talent has left from that and last year's teams. But even those teams were not good enough to win the SEC West, a division that has always been strong but is even stronger in 2014 than it usually is.

Ipso facto, Sumlin would have to have this team playing better—and considerably so—than it did in 2012 and 2013 for it to be a title contender. It looked that good for 60 minutes against South Carolina, but I'm not sure that's enough.

Fair or not, I still have to see more.

Current Verdict: Moderate Sell

5. Auburn (3-0)

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Preseason Verdict: Moderate Sell

Depending on your agenda, Auburn either escaped with a win or needed to escape with a win on the road against Kansas State.

Personally? I skew toward the first camp. Whether Kansas State is a Big 12 contender is irrelevant: That was an insane environment, a respectable opponent and a group of players and coaches that were hellbent on coming out with an upset.

Auburn didn't allow that to happen.

It took some patented Gus Malzahn magic to get there, but the Tigers are 3-0. One of my biggest qualms with Auburn entering the season—i.e., the reason it's a moderate sell—was the belief that it "couldn't possibly get as lucky as it did in 2013." But when Jack Cantele shanked his third field goal of the game last Thursday night, there was nothing left to do but reconsider. Maybe the Tiger puts something in the water?

Alas, my other qualm with Auburn hasn't changed. It still plays the most difficult schedule in the country, and it isn't even all that close.

Kansas State is one hurdle cleared, but there's still that ominous stretch from Oct. 4 to Nov. 15 with games against LSU, at Mississippi State, South Carolina, at Ole Miss, Texas A&M and at Georgia. Two weeks after that, the Tigers play Alabama in Tuscaloosa.

All seven of those teams are in the national Top 17.

Current Verdict: Moderate Sell

4. Oklahoma (4-0)

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Preseason Verdict: Reluctant Buy

Oklahoma has done everything right so far this season.

It bum-rushed Louisiana Tech and Tulsa. It outmuscled Tennessee at home. It turned a close game into a blowout at West Virginia.

It has looked like one of the best in the country.

Before the season, I went on the record with my skepticism of the Sooners. I didn't trust the run defense, and I especially didn't trust quarterback Trevor Knight. Four weeks into the season, I am starting to change my tune. We all make mistakes, after all. Some people even had South Carolina going 11-3 and winning the SEC East.

(Dang it, that was me again.)

Seriously, though, Oklahoma has looked good. Really good. National championship good. The Sooners and Baylor both get a "strong buy" because they, unlike most of the other teams on this list, have only each other to compete with. Kansas State, Oklahoma State and TCU are decent, but they are clearly on the tier below the Bears and Oklahoma.

Whoever wins in Norman on Nov. 8 should make the playoff.

Current Verdict: Strong Buy

3. Alabama (4-0)

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Preseason Verdict: Strong Buy

People were worried about Alabama in the offseason, and they were even more worried when it barely beat West Virginia in Week 1.

Three weeks later, that worry no longer exists.

West Virginia has been better than anybody expected, and Alabama has decimated all three of its opponents since that game. Most notably, it outgained Florida by 445 472 yards in a 42-21 win last weekend, scoring an 87-yard touchdown on its first offensive play from scrimmage and never looking back.

The secondary still gives me pause, but All-America safety Landon Collins is doing a good job holding the group together. The quarterback is still a concern, but Blake Sims makes it less of one with each game such as Saturday's. Every potential qualm with this team can be rebutted, easily, which is what separates it from the rest of the SEC.

Even in the brutal West division, that is something worth buying.

Current Verdict: Strong Buy

2. Oregon (4-0)

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Preseason Verdict: Moderate Buy

Oregon and the next team on this list have the same weakness, and it's an area that was supposed to be a strength: the offensive line.

The Ducks couldn't block Washington State in Week 4, escaping with a win only after a strong effort from quarterback Marcus Mariota. The same could be said of the Week 2 matchup with Michigan State, a game in which Mariota registered multiple "Heisman moments."

"We're gonna get this film and get better," All-America center Hroniss Grasu said after the Washington State game, per Molly Blue of The Oregonian. "We're gonna fix those mistakes that we had in the first half."

If Grasu and Co. can get the job done, there is a lot about Oregon to like. The wide receiver issues have been cleared up thanks to the emergence of Devon Allen, and the defense has played well. Mark Helfrich appears to have learned the art of winning close games, something Ducks fans needed him to prove after his first year in charge.

It's difficult to make this a "strong buy" based on what the offensive line has shown, but it's just as difficult to make this a "reluctant buy" based on what we know this offensive line can be.

Ipso facto…(see below):

Current Verdict: Moderate Buy

1. Florida State

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Preseason Verdict: Strong Buy

What the heck is wrong with Florida State*?

An offensive line that was supposed to be one of the best in the country got abused against Clemson, and it didn't look much better against Oklahoma State in Week 1. Even with five seniors and four projected All-ACC talents in the starting lineup, the group up front appears to have regressed, left tackle Cam Erving in particular.

Combined with so-so play from running back Karlos Williams and the failed emergence of a second receiver behind Rashad Greene, the state of the line has thrown this offense into flux. And that's before you even factor in the Jameis Winston of it all.

How can this team trust its quarterback?

Ultimately, the Seminoles remain a "moderate buy" after four weeks, but more of that has to do with schedule than form. Miami didn't look like a threat to beat them against Nebraska, Louisville didn't look like a threat to beat them against Virginia and Florida really didn't look like a threat to beat them against Alabama.

Notre Dame looks like the only viable threat left on the docket, and that game will be played in Tallahassee (and ostensibly with Winston at QB). Still, unless these first three games have been a mirage, Florida State does not look like a team that can win a national semifinal and a national title game against quality opponents.

Current Verdict: Moderate Buy

*other than the soap opera at quarterback.