Florida Gators vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Odds: Analysis and Prediction

The Alabama Crimson Tide overtook the Florida Gators in the SEC hierarchy early during the Coach Saban regime, building a recent dominance in the rivalry between the two teams by going 3-1 both straight up and against the spread in the last four meetings.

The Tide will try to keep that trend rolling when they host the Gators on Saturday in Tuscaloosa.

Alabama vs. Florida point spread: The Crimson Tide opened as 16-point favorites at Bryant-Denny Stadium, but it was bet down to 14.5 points by Wednesday, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. The total was 52, a number that will be easily surpassed if the computer is right in Week 4. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 45.9-25.1 Crimson Tide

Why the Florida Gators can cover the spread

The Gators are off to a 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS start to this season, after victories over Eastern Michigan and Kentucky. Florida blew out the Eagles 65-0, covering as 40-point chalk, but had to scramble to beat the Wildcats in triple overtime, coming up short of covering as a 17-point favorite.

The Gators outrushed Kentucky 237-81 and held the ball for almost 34 minutes, but they gave up a couple of big plays that kept the 'Cats in the game. QB Jeff Driskel, one of 14 returning starters for Florida this year, overcame a slow start to throw three touchdown passes, and WR Demarcus Robinson had a breakout game, catching 15 balls for 216 yards and two scores.

They have struggled to cover spreads lately (2-6-1 according to the college football database), but they could be due for a big rivalry performance here.

Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread

The Tide is off to a 3-0 start, and the only reasons they're 0-2 ATS is that they've been favored by so much and some bad weather. Alabama beat West Virginia 33-23, but couldn't cover at -22; they then defeated Florida Atlantic 41-0, as 41-point favorites, but that game was called with eight minutes to go because of lightning, canceling all bets.

Last week 'Bama beat Southern Miss 52-12 but came up short against the spread at -47 points. Tide quarterbacks Blake Sims and Jake Coker have combined to complete 67 of 94 passes, with five touchdowns and just one interception, and RBs TJ Yeldon and Derrick Henry are both averaging about six yards per carry.

Smart Pick

Alabama has won the last three games in this series by an average of 24 points. Also, the Tide defense has allowed a total of just 141 yards on the ground through its first three games of this season.

Alabama almost looked like it was biding its time before the SEC season began. Well, now it's here, so look out. The pick here is with the Tide, giving the points.

Trends

• Florida is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games.
• Alabama is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home but 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.

Note: All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered first-hand unless otherwise noted—check out Twitter for injury updates and line move updates and get the free odds tracker app.