Picks, Predictions and Prognosis for Every Week 3 Big 12 Football Game

Another week, another slate of generally "meh" out-of-conference games for the Big 12. 

All except for one, that is. Texas has an important game this Saturday against Ole Miss if it wants to rebound from an embarrassing loss to BYU. There's been a change at the defensive coordinator for the Longhorns: Manny Diaz is out, Greg Robinson is in. How the 'Horns play on D against the Rebels will undoubtedly be a matchup to watch. 

The Big 12's conference schedule also has a key early season game on Thursday night when TCU travels to Lubbock to take on Texas Tech. This is a major game for both sides. Tech's freshman quarterback, Baker Mayfield, is off to a hot start and could gain even more exposure. The Horned Frogs need to get off on the right foot after showing up sluggish against Southeastern Louisiana. 

How will all eight games look this week? We give it our best guess next. 

(All rankings used reflect the latest Associated Press poll)

No. 24 TCU at Texas Tech

Thursday, Sept. 12 at 7:30 p.m. ET

With all apologies directed at Oklahoma and West Virginia, this is the first major Big 12 conference game of the season. 

Texas Tech is off to a hot start thanks to the immediate impact of freshman walk-on quarterback Baker Mayfield. As I noted in Mayfield's feature earlier this week, a big game against TCU could really launch his season. 

On the other end, TCU is struggling to get its mojo rocking, and starting quarterback Casey Pachall is out for what looks to be most (if not all) of the season with a broken forearm. The Horned Frogs offense has looked better so far under fellow quarterback Trevone Boykin, but can he play well for an entire game on the road?

TCU will also have defensive end Devonte Fields back from a two-game suspension that's been chopped up over several games. Can this defense's best player from a year ago disrupt Mayfield? 

It's no secret I've been high on TCU (phrasing), but I'm also beginning to wonder if the Horned Frogs will be able to show more consistency than they did against Southeastern Louisiana. I'll say yes, for now. 

Score prediction: TCU 30, Texas Tech 28

Georgia State at West Virginia

Saturday, Sept. 14 at noon ET 

West Virginia is coming off a tough, but no less hard-fought game against Oklahoma. With some help from the Sooners, the Mountaineers defense was able to keep the game close while Dana Holgorsen's offense struggled mightily. 

Holgorsen on Monday's Big 12 coaches teleconference said that he plans on shaking things up this week on that side of the ball, especially at the quarterback and wide receiver spots. That could mean more playing time for Clint Trickett. 

It ultimately shouldn't matter who plays, or when, or how much, but last time WVU lined up against a supposedly inferior opponent, well...

Score prediction: WVU 27, Georgia State 17

Tulsa at No. 14 Oklahoma

Saturday, Sept. 14 at noon ET

Starting quarterback Trevor Knight is out with a knee injury and Blake Bell is in. As we noted on the Big 12 blog yesterday, the offense shouldn't change too much with Bell in charge. 

What I'd like to see out of the Sooners is a sharper passing game. Get more balance there and OU suddenly looks like a team that's hard to beat with a solid rushing attack and what looks to be a much-improved defense. 

The Golden Hurricane inexplicably scored seven points in a season opening loss to Bowling Green and needed a fourth quarter rally to be Colorado State in Week 2. If OU comes out focused, it shouldn't have any problem. 

Score prediction: Oklahoma 38, Tulsa 10

Iowa at Iowa State

Saturday, Sept. 14 at 6:00 p.m. ET 

The ol' Cy-Hawk Trophy is on the line Saturday when Iowa and Iowa State meet in Ames. The Cyclones are the current holder of the hardware thanks to an all-time 9-6 classic over the Hawkeyes a year ago. 

ISU has had an extra week to simmer over losing to Northern Iowa in Week 1. Coach Paul Rhoads praised his team's effort and preparation in practice over the past week during Monday's conference call. Getting amped to play Iowa shouldn't be an issue, either. 

(I can't believe I just wrote that.) 

I'd still like to see an improvement from ISU's running game as quarterback Sam Richardson is the team's leading rusher at the moment. Also, look for Luke Knott, the younger brother of Jake Knott, to get the start at linebacker for the Cyclones. 

Score prediction: Iowa 23, Iowa State 16

UMass at Kansas State

Saturday, Sept. 14 at 7:00 p.m. ET

Kansas State was able to battle back from its season opening loss to North Dakota State and handle Louisiana-Lafayette with relative ease. I would expect the same against UMass. 

Unless, Kansas State is looking ahead to Texas, that is. I wouldn't expect that from Bill Snyder's team given how the start of the season went, but you never know. 

Also, will we continue to see more of Daniel Sams at quarterback, or will Jake Waters continue to run the show? Snyder said Monday during the Big 12 conference call that he has "two fine players" in Sams and Waters.  

Score prediction: Kansas State 38, UMass 7

Kansas at Rice

Saturday, Sept. 14 at 7:30 p.m. ET

Kansas took care of South Dakota without much of an issue in Week 2, but Rice is a different animal. 

Or grain. Either one. Or both. 

The Owls actually kept things interesting with Texas A&M for a while in Week 1 and ran the ball well. The Jayhawks defense is going have a hard time containing that.

Similarly, Kansas ran the ball a lot against the Coyotes. Charlie Weis said Monday during his Big 12 coaches conference call that the decision to stick with the ground game was more about its effectiveness rather than anything quarterback Jake Heaps did (or didn't) do in the passing game. 

It'll be interesting to see if Kansas sticks to that philosophy against the Owls. 

Score prediction: Rice 38, Kansas 28

Lamar at No. 12 Oklahoma State

Saturday, Sept. 14 at 7:30 p.m. ET

With all the off-field distractions facing Oklahoma State thanks to the Sports Illustrated series, Mike Gundy and Co. probably want to get out on the field and just play football. 

They'll get a chance to do it at home, too. It's crazy to think about, but the Cowboys haven't played in Boone Pickens Stadium in five games dating back to last year. 

J.W. Walsh showed in Week 2 against UTSA that he can throw as well as run. Barring injury, he should have another big game. 

Score prediction: Oklahoma State 100, Lamar 2

No. 25 Ole Miss at Texas

Saturday, Sept. 14 at 8:00 p.m. ET

There will still be nine more regular season games for Texas after Saturday, but this one against Ole Miss feels crucial for Mack Brown even though it's an out-of-conference game. 

Greg Robinson steps in as defensive coordinator for the demoted Manny Diaz and he has a week to try to turn things around—or, begin turning things around—on defense. There's definitely a sense of chaos surrounding the UT program right now, but sometimes, it's in those moments when players and coaches respond the best. 

UT has developed the reputation for being soft. Coming out and beating Ole Miss would be as big a statement as any in recent years for this program.

But it doesn't figure to be easy. The Rebels catch this Longhorns team at an opportune time. Per head coach Mack Brown to reporters Monday, Wide receiver Daje Johnson is sidelined with an ankle injury and quarterback David Ash is day-to-day with head and shoulder injuries. If Ash can't go, Case McCoy will get the start.

Ole Miss' defense is insanely young in spots but nevertheless talented. It wouldn't be surprising if they wreak havoc in UT's backfield on Saturday. 

Score prediction: Ole Miss 28, Texas 21

All quotes obtained firsthand unless noted otherwise.