College Football Week 8 Betting Picks

Sean McDermottContributor IIIOctober 18, 2012

College Football Week 8 Betting Picks

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    It feels good to jump right back on the winning-train, going a perfect 3-0. After a few dismal .500 weeks, my week seven picks went 3-0 ATS (1-0 Game of the Week).

    Texas Tech came into their matchup against a impressive West Virginia offense lead by Heisman hopeful Geno Smith. I called the Red Raiders to cover and they did. The Red Raiders defense and Seth Doege prevailed 49-14. Doege torched West Virginia for six touchdowns and 499 passing yards. 

    The Florida Gators traveled north to Nashville, Tennessee to take on a pesky Vanderbilt Commodores team. As the final whistle blew in the first half the Gators held a 11-7 lead. Gators QB Jeff Driskel ignited the second half, where he ran for 177 yards and three touchdowns, onward to covering the spread and winning the game 31-17.

    The Game of the Week pick. Going for a perfect 3-0 record ATS, the Gamecocks failed to put away a down in the dumps LSU Tigers team, but cover the spread. The Tigers, who we're coming off three less than inspiring weeks of play came into this game looking to rejuvenate their 2012 campaign, and that they did. The Tigers survived the 60 minute back-and-forth battle prevailing 23-21. 

    Let's continue to gather money and stay on this winning train. Here are my three picks for week eight of the college football season. As always, best of luck to all.

    2012 Record ATS

    15-10 (6-1 Game of the Week Pick)

     

    Week 7 Results 

    No. 4 Florida Gators 31 Vanderbilt Commodores 17 (+8.5) Win

    No.5 West Virginia 14 Texas Tech 49 (+3.5) Win

    Game of the Week Pick

    No. 3 South Carolina 21 No. 9 LSU 23 (-2.5) Win


Colorado Buffaloes (1-5) vs. No. 11 USC Trojans (5-1)

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    Date: Saturday, October 20

    Time: 6:00 p.m. ET

    Current Line: USC by 40.5

    The Story: By no means is Colorado anywhere close to beating the mighty USC Trojans anytime soon. The Buffaloes are the worst team in the Pac-12 and one of the worst in the NCAA. Colorado's offense is ranked 100th and defense is ranked 112th. Three blow out losses (@Fresno State 14-69, UCLA 14-42 and Arizona State 17-51) has Vegas favored by 40+ points. Colorado linebacker Brady Daigh is banged up, which will only make matters worse for Colorado. The key for Colorado will be a miracle.

    USC's 24-14 victory against Washington can be summed up as way too close to call. The Trojans star quarterback Matt Barkley hasn't put up the numbers that many experts thought he would, as the Trojans are adapting to a more run-first offense. In the last three games USC has averaged 209.7 yards per game. The key for the Trojans will be to establish their offensive attack and destroy the Buffaloes secondary and score a lot of points.

    Recent Trends: Both USC and Colorado are 1-5 ATS this season. USC is 1-0 ATS versus Colorado in the last three seasons. Last season USC beat Colorado 42-17 and covered the 19.5 point spread. 

    The Pick: Without a doubt USC is going to win the game handily. The only question is who's going to cover the spread? USC has been a let-down all year and have struggled to put up points. I'm going to go out on a limb and say go with Colorado to cover.

    Colorado +40.5

    Colorado 17 USC 52 

No. 4 Kansas State Wildcats (6-0) vs. No. 17 West Virginia Mountaineers (5-1)

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    Date: Saturday, October 20

    Time: 7:00 p.m. ET

    Current Line: West Virginia by 2.5

    The Story: What was supposed to be a huge match-up between two top-five teams with BCS implications at stake, West Virginia finds themselves sitting at No. 17, while their counterpart No. 4 Kansas State is in the hunt. For the first time all season the Mountaineers struggled greatly on offense. Quarterback Geno Smith couldn't put up his ridiculous statistics of earlier games. Smith ended the game with only 275 passing yards and a lone touchdown. West Virginia's 113th ranked defense also gave up yet again numerous amounts of yards and points. The key to a West Virginia victory will be how their defense can stop Wildcats' Quarterback Collin Klein. Klein is by no means a gun slinger, but he is a battering ram, running for over 450 yards this season with 10 touchdowns. 

    The Wildcats and Bill Synder are on Cloud 9 right now. Sitting atop Oklahoma, TCU and Texas in the Big 12 is something not many saw happening this year. On paper, the Wildcats' look like the best bet in this match, but West Virginia should be motivated to get back in the top 10 with the home crowd behind their backs. The key for the Wildcats' will be to exploit West Virginia's weak secondary (ranks third to last). If Klein can exploit West Virginia early on the game will be over really quick.

    Recent Trends: Kansas State is 4-1-1 ATS this season. West Virginia is 2-4 ATS this season. These two teams have not met since 1992. K-State is 9-2 ATS in the last three years in road games.

    The Pick- West Virginia are in need for a huge win to salvage their season. It helps that the Mountaineers are on their home turf in a typical West Virginia October day. A tough match-up without a doubt, but I believe K-State has more momentum leading into this game. Also, West Virginia's weak pass defense makes me very scared to trust them in a bet. Be safe and take K-State 

    K-State +2.5

    Kansas State 45 West Virginia 24

     

GOTW: No. 9 South Carolina Gamecocks (6-1) vs. No. 3 Florida Gators (6-0)

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    Date: Saturday, October 20

    Time: 3:30 p.m. ET

    Current Line: Florida by 3.5

    The Story: If I told you that Florida will be ranked No 3 in the top 25 and No. 2 in the BCS in the beginning of the season you'd call me insane. The Florida Gators are one of the most surprising teams in the NCAA. After a tough 2011 season, Florida head coach Will Muschamp has changed the ways of the Gators. The Gators, are only one win away from matching last year's total victories. Florida can secure a return to the SEC Championship if they can win their next two high-profile match-ups. The key for a Gators victory will be how well Jeff Driskel (Gators Quarterback) can play against the 12th ranked Gamecock defense.

    With Marcus Lattimore on the fringe of being out of Saturday's game due to a hip injury, the Gamecocks are in big trouble. The Gators hold the 20th best defense against the run as they only give up 107.5 yards per game. Coming off a big loss to LSU only makes the Gamecocks mental state even more shaken. Coach Steve Spurrier wants his Gamecocks to forget about how they lost to the Tigers just when they had momentum and we're ranked in the top 5 in the nation. The key for a Gamecocks victory will be Connor Shaw. He will have to lead a Lattimore-less South Carolina at Ben Hill Griffith Stadium.

    Recent Trends: Florida is 5-1 ATS this season and 5-0 in the last five contests. S. Carolina is 6-1 ATS this season and 6-0 in the last six contests. In the last three season's S. Carolina is 2-0 against the spread versus Florida. S. Carolina is 11-9 against Florida since 1992. Coming off a loss against a conference rival, the Gamecocks are 5-1 in the last three years.

    The Pick: This game will be extremely close in the first half. I expect the Gators to come out in the second half and just eke out a victory against a Lattimore-less S. Carolina. Gators are at home and the Gamecocks are without their Heisman hopeful. The Gators haven't failed me yet, I'll take Florida,

    Florida -3.5

    South Carolina 17 Florida 24

    All lines are subject to change based on the line movement. All lines are from ScoresandOdds.com.

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