2012 College Football Week 5 Picks: West Virginia over Baylor

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2012 College Football Week 5 Picks: West Virginia over Baylor
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Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2012 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week available on Wednesdays.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Baylor at West Virginia

The Warhawks of Louisiana-Monroe have been the thorn in the side of some of the top collegiate football programs over the last few weeks. First, they took then eighth-ranked Arkansas to overtime and won 34-31. Then, they traveled to Auburn and forced overtime with the Tigers, but fell by three. Finally, last week, the Warhawks took Baylor down to the wire before losing 47-42. The Bears may have lost Robert Griffin III to the NFL, but their high-powered offense continued to thrive during the non-conference portion of their 2012 schedule.

That changes this Saturday at high noon.

Baylor travels to Morgantown to meet the new kid in the Big 12 Conference, West Virginia. The Bears enter the game fifth in the nation in scoring (51.3 points per game) and passing offense (361.7). He may not be as mobile as RG3, but Nick Florence is making a name for himself with more than 1,000 passing yards and 11 touchdowns already this season. He's chipped in 159 yards on the ground, too.

The Bears' problem, once again, is on the other side of the football where they rank 116th in total defense and 90th in scoring defense. Ouch.

They'll need to try and rectify that against Geno Smith and the Mountaineers, who are 10th in scoring offense at better than 47 points per game. Smith is one of the early favorites to take home the Heisman Trophy. The quarterback has thrown for 1,072 yards and 12 touchdowns without throwing a pick. Smith is completing better than 81 percent of his passes, which is insane and leads the nation.

We simulated the Bears and the Mountaineers 101 times and it's West Virginia coming away with the win more than 65 percent of the time by an average score of 30-25. Remember, that's just an average score – chances are these two teams run the score into the mid-to-high 40s.

College Football Week 5
Matchup Win% Avg Score  
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 5.0 17 Boxscore
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 95.0 34  
Idaho Vandals 12.9 16 Boxscore
@ North Carolina Tar Heels 87.1 32  
North Carolina State Wolfpack 44.1 23 Boxscore
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes 55.9 25  
Duke Blue Devils 44.1 25 Boxscore
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons 55.9 26  
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 54.5 28 Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers 45.5 27  
Clemson Tigers 83.2 31 Boxscore
@ Boston College Eagles 16.8 19  
Buffalo Bulls 27.2 15 Boxscore
@ Connecticut Huskies 72.8 23  
Virginia Tech Hokies 62.9 24 Boxscore
vs. Cincinnati Bearcats 37.1 18  
Florida State Seminoles 79.2 29 Boxscore
@ South Florida Bulls 20.8 19  
Indiana Hoosiers 24.8 20 Boxscore
@ Northwestern Wildcats 75.2 27  
Marshall Thundering Herd 28.7 22 Boxscore
@ Purdue Boilermakers 71.3 30  
Minnesota Golden Gophers 32.7 20 Boxscore
@ Iowa Hawkeyes 67.3 24  
Wisconsin Badgers 39.1 23 Boxscore
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers 60.9 26  
Penn State Nittany Lions 49.0 19 Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini 51.0 20  
Ohio State Buckeyes 51.5 22 Boxscore
@ Michigan State Spartans 48.5 21  
Rhode Island Rams 5.0 6 Boxscore
@ Bowling Green Falcons 95.0 40  
Central Michigan Chippewas 38.6 22 Boxscore
@ Northern Illinois Huskies 61.4 25  
Toledo Rockets 44.1 27 Boxscore
@ Western Michigan Broncos 55.9 29  
Ball State Cardinals 61.9 22 Boxscore
@ Kent State Golden Flashes 38.1 19  
Miami (OH) RedHawks 72.3 26 Boxscore
@ Akron Zips 27.7 19  
Ohio Bobcats 95.0 33 Boxscore
@ Massachusetts Minutemen 5.0 10  
Arizona State Sun Devils 47.5 25 Boxscore
@ California Golden Bears 52.5 26  
Oregon State Beavers 51.5 29 Boxscore
@ Arizona Wildcats 48.5 28  
UCLA Bruins 65.3 25 Boxscore
@ Colorado Buffaloes 34.7 20  
Stanford Cardinal 64.9 28 Boxscore
@ Washington Huskies 35.1 24  
Oregon Ducks 74.3 32 Boxscore
@ Washington State Cougars 25.7 21  
Towson Tigers 5.0 6 Boxscore
@ LSU Tigers 95.0 52  
Mississippi Rebels 6.9 13 Boxscore
@ Alabama Crimson Tide 93.1 30  
Arkansas Razorbacks 27.7 21 Boxscore
@ Texas A&M Aggies 72.3 28  
Tennessee Volunteers 29.2 21 Boxscore
@ Georgia Bulldogs 70.8 27  
South Carolina Gamecocks 88.1 25 Boxscore
@ Kentucky Wildcats 11.9 11  
UNLV Rebels 15.8 19 Boxscore
@ Utah State Aggies 84.2 30  
Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners 32.2 23 Boxscore
@ New Mexico State Aggies 67.8 29  
Nevada Wolf Pack 91.1 32 Boxscore
@ Texas State Bobcats 8.9 15  
Stony Brook Seawolves 5.0 9 Boxscore
@ Army Black Knights 95.0 41  
Hawaii Warriors 30.7 19 Boxscore
@ Brigham Young Cougars 69.3 25  
San Jose State Spartans 54.5 26 Boxscore
@ Navy Midshipmen 45.5 25  
Baylor Bears 34.7 25 Boxscore
@ West Virginia Mountaineers 65.3 30  
Texas Tech Red Raiders 41.1 26 Boxscore
@ Iowa State Cyclones 58.9 28  
Texas Longhorns 57.4 25 Boxscore
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys 42.6 23  
UTEP Miners 46.5 24 Boxscore
@ East Carolina Pirates 53.5 25  
Missouri Tigers 60.4 26 Boxscore
@ UCF Knights 39.6 22  
Houston Cougars 60.4 30 Boxscore
vs. Rice Owls 39.6 26  
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 69.3 28 Boxscore
@ Tulane Green Wave 30.7 21  
TCU Horned Frogs 75.2 30 Boxscore
@ Southern Methodist Mustangs 24.8 21  
Tulsa Golden Hurricane 79.2 31 Boxscore
@ UAB Blazers 20.8 20  
Louisville Cardinals 83.2 28 Boxscore
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles 16.8 16  
Colorado State Rams 25.7 18 Boxscore
@ Air Force Falcons 74.3 25  
San Diego State Aztecs 36.1 22 Boxscore
@ Fresno State Bulldogs 63.9 28  
Boise State Broncos 95.0 35 Boxscore
@ New Mexico Lobos 5.0 15  
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 38.6 24 Boxscore
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves 61.4 27  
FIU Golden Panthers 47.5 26 Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns 52.5 27  
North Texas Mean Green 67.3 25 Boxscore
@ Florida Atlantic Owls 32.7 19  
Troy Trojans 75.2 28 Boxscore
@ South Alabama Jaguars 24.8 19  
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